SH148: Risk of diving fatality is 1:200 000. However, you cannot be a fraction of dead…!

SH148: Risk of diving fatality is 1:200 000. However, you cannot be a fraction of dead…!

In this episode, we explore how risk is perceived and managed in diving, where emotions, biases, and mental shortcuts often outweigh logic and statistics. Diving fatalities are statistically rare, but those numbers don’t resonate emotionally—our decisions are more influenced by stories and personal experiences. Through real-life examples, we unpack biases like availability bias, outcome bias, and the “turkey illusion,” showing how these distort our understanding of risks. The discussion also highlights strategies for improving risk management, such as using checklists, planning and debriefing effectively, and sharing experiences to enhance collective learning. Join us to rethink how we approach uncertainty and decision-making in diving and beyond.

Original blog: https://www.thehumandiver.com/blog/riskoffatality

Links: Fatalities COnference Procceedings: https://www.diversalertnetwork.org/files/Fatalities_Proceedings.pdf

Numbers don;t have the same emotional relevance as stories: https://hbr.org/2003/06/storytelling-that-moves-people

Risk of dying from a shark attack: https://www.floridamuseum.ufl.edu/shark-attacks/odds/compare-risk/death/

Behavioural economics: https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/resources/introduction-behavioral-economics/

Prospect theory: https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/resources/mini-encyclopedia-of-be/prospect-theory/

Video about normalisation of deviance: https://vimeo.com/174875861

4 T’s of risk management: https://www.facebook.com/groups/1612046102342961/permalink/2160646497482916/

How it makes sense for “stupid” decisions: https://www.facebook.com/gareth.lock.5/videos/10155465887236831/

Tags: English, Gareth Lock

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Episoder(296)

SH296: When 'I'm Fine' Isn't True: Speaking Up and Ending the Dive

SH296: When 'I'm Fine' Isn't True: Speaking Up and Ending the Dive

This episode explores a diving incident where nothing officially “went wrong,” yet a series of small decisions and social pressures nearly led to tragedy. A newer CCR diver and his wife joined more ex...

15 Jul 13min

SH295: Four Ways We Talk About 'Human Factors' in Diving

SH295: Four Ways We Talk About 'Human Factors' in Diving

This episode explores what people really mean when they talk about “human factors” in diving—and why the term can sometimes create more confusion than clarity. It looks at four different ways the phra...

11 Jul 11min

SH294: Clickbait, trolls and comments. How dive incident posts can teach us — if we let them

SH294: Clickbait, trolls and comments. How dive incident posts can teach us — if we let them

Discussions about diving incidents on social media often follow a predictable pattern: a short, simplified post describes what happened, and comments quickly focus on blaming the individual involved, ...

8 Jul 13min

SH293: Why does nothing change? Why do the same failures keep happening?

SH293: Why does nothing change? Why do the same failures keep happening?

Over the past decade, diving fatalities have remained stubbornly consistent despite better equipment, more training, and growing participation, suggesting the problem isn’t just technical or individua...

4 Jul 22min

SH292: Learning or Blaming: The Choice the Diving Industry Needs to Make. Part 3 of 3.

SH292: Learning or Blaming: The Choice the Diving Industry Needs to Make. Part 3 of 3.

This final blog explores what the research means and how the diving community can realistically improve learning and safety. It argues that the problem is not broken individuals but a system that quie...

1 Jul 14min

SH291: What the Data Told Us: Fear, Trust, and the Stories That Never Get Told. Part 2 of 3.

SH291: What the Data Told Us: Fear, Trust, and the Stories That Never Get Told. Part 2 of 3.

This blog explains how a mixed-methods study explored why divers struggle to share honest, learning-focused stories about incidents. Using a large international survey, focus groups, and expert interv...

27 Jun 13min

SH290: What Happens Underwater, Stays Underwater — And That's a Problem. Part 1 of 3

SH290: What Happens Underwater, Stays Underwater — And That's a Problem. Part 1 of 3

This episode introduces the problem behind learning in diving safety, using the 2020 death of Linnea Mills to highlight how incidents are often caused by deeper system issues, not just individual mist...

24 Jun 12min

SH289: Chac Mool - Diving Deeper into a Triple Fatality with Human Factors

SH289: Chac Mool - Diving Deeper into a Triple Fatality with Human Factors

This episode examines a 2012 triple fatality at Cenote Chac Mool in Mexico using a Human Factors approach, showing how accidents are rarely caused by a single mistake but by a combination of small, in...

20 Jun 24min

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