Thin Ice

Thin Ice

Can't taste, can't smell, half a beer in - Marko puts his best foot forward for today's episode... And somehow it might be one of our best. The lads cover the Iran situation from every angle: why regime collapse is actually scarier than regime change, what a real 1973-style energy crisis looks like if the Strait goes dark, and why nobody - not allies, not neighbors - is rushing to Tehran's rescue. They dive into Trump's escort policy, the rules-based order debate, Ukraine hitting Russian oil infrastructure, and whether any of this even qualifies as a war. There's also some serious time spent debating Dubai - who it actually serves, whether its neutrality holds, and who could rival it as the next real safe haven. Throw in AI wargames going nuclear, Taiwan logic, brain drain, Venezuela as a leverage play, and a World War Z detour, and that's your episode :)

--

Timestamps:

(01:23) - Wisconsin field research

(02:22) - Thin ice markets framing

(04:38) - Yom Kippur energy shock

(07:51) - Regime collapse scenario

(12:00) - Iran capabilities and drones

(15:46) - Trump shipping insurance rant

(26:08) - Allies reactions and Europe

(30:05) - Spain politics and energy

(31:48) - Combat Operation Wordplay

(34:50) - Ukraine Hits Russian Oil

(37:11) - Rules Based Order Myth

(39:31) - Why No World War

(42:00) - Nukes Change Everything

(46:51) - How Many Countries Bombed

(50:10) - World War Incentives

(51:16 AI War Games Go Nuclear

(53:19) - Dubai Safe Haven Debate

(01:01:57) - UAE Risks And Rivals

(01:03:42) - Picking New Safe Havens

(01:05:14) - What Makes UAE Hard to Copy

(01:08:35) - Neutrality and No Opinions

(01:10:50) - Rubio Quote and Exit Ramps

(01:13:26) - Israel Tech Debate and Stats

(01:18:56) - Regional Hegemon and PR Problem

(01:25:05) - Gulf States Need Israel Intel

(01:35:26) - World War Z Detour

(01:37:05) - Venezuela Leverage and Wrap Up

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Denne episoden er hentet fra en åpen RSS-feed og er ikke publisert av Podme. Den kan derfor inneholde annonser.

Episoder(75)

The King of Israel

The King of Israel

It's been a minute. Marko and Jacob are back after a long gap, and not much has changed: the Hormuz standoff drags on, the war in Ukraine grinds forward, and the stock market shrugged it all off. Mark...

12 Aug 1h 22min

Lessons Learned

Lessons Learned

Round two. Same four analysts, a lot more whiskey, and a lot less structure. Peter Zeihan, Marko Papic, and Matt Gertken sit back down with Jacob - a man who cut his teeth pestering all three of them ...

31 Jul 1h 27min

This Is The Way The World Ends (w/ Zeihan & Gertken)

This Is The Way The World Ends (w/ Zeihan & Gertken)

Sixteen years after last sharing a table together, four Stratfor alumni reunite for a wide-ranging conversation on the decade ahead. Jacob and Marko are joined by Peter Zeihan, and Matt Gertken to tac...

29 Jul 1h 40min

What We Got Wrong About The World Cup (A LOT)

What We Got Wrong About The World Cup (A LOT)

The cousins reconvene with the BCA brain trust - Juan Correa, Robert Tipper, and Jeremie Peloso - for the World Cup post-mortem. The model called all four semifinalists but missed champion Spain, so t...

24 Jul 1h 22min

Operation Fun Run

Operation Fun Run

Iran again. Yes, again :( nobody's thrilled, but that's the content. The cousins break down a week of tanker attacks, retaliations to retaliations, and a 20% toll that became "great investments" in 24...

15 Jul 55min

A Little Belgium Cherub Gets to Pee in Trump's Pool

A Little Belgium Cherub Gets to Pee in Trump's Pool

Iran, Hormuz, another tanker on fire - sure, fine, but the real question is: what's actually driving the behavior here, and it's not the diplomacy everyone keeps quoting. Marko and Jacob argue it out:...

8 Jul 1h 26min

16 Books That Shaped Us

16 Books That Shaped Us

It's the Book Episode!!! Marko and Jacob turn their usual geopolitical sparring into a book draft: eight titles each, no rules, no rankings, just the texts that actually built their analytical muscle ...

6 Jul 1h 30min

The Esprit de Corps of Buc-ees

The Esprit de Corps of Buc-ees

Drones aren't a technological revolution - they're a pain-tolerance equalizer, letting Ukraine strike refineries deep inside a country that never planned to defend them. Jacob and Marko trace the defe...

27 Jun 1h 8min

Populært innen Business og økonomi

stopp-verden
lydartikler-fra-aftenposten
dine-penger-pengeradet
rss-penger-polser-og-politikk
e24-podden
rss-borsmorgen-okonominyhetene
rss-skravla-gar
lederpodden
rss-pa-konto
utbytte
pengepodden-2
livet-pa-veien-med-jan-erik-larssen
finansredaksjonen
morgenkaffen-med-finansavisen
liberal-halvtime
tid-er-penger-en-podcast-med-peter-warren
rss-orjasater
pengesnakk
rss-markedspuls-2
rss-kron-podden