Bombing for Peace

Bombing for Peace

Marko and Jacob dig into the Iran ceasefire - is it real, or theater? Marko argues Trump's bombing campaign materially set back Iran's nuclear program, making even a JCPOA-style deal a net win. They also cover the erosion of the petrodollar system, bid farewell to Viktor Orbán, and debate whether TMZ opening a DC bureau is civilization's final chapter.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Show Notes and Shoutouts

(00:56) - Hero Principal Story

(02:07) - Bingo Card Banter

(04:39) - Ceasefire and Strait Signals

(07:27) - Iranian Infighting and Markets

(12:30) - Nuclear Material Dilemma

(15:09) - Deescalation and Market Complacency

(22:28) - Is the Deal Superficial

(28:31) - Will Iran Change Behavior

(37:25) - Is Iran Really the Villain

(41:45) - Iran vs Saudi Hypocrisy Debate

(44:18) - Trump Is The Swamp

(44:43) - Pump The Brakes On Iran

(46:50) - Exit Middle East Vision

(48:32) - Terrorism And Threat Math

(50:23) - Opportunity Cost At Home

(52:05) - Petrodollar Explained

(55:51) - Inertia And Diversification

(58:04) - Reputation Versus Savings

(58:45) - Football Trade Metaphors

(01:02:20) - Falcons Pain And Fandom

(01:04:09) - Listener Coffee Shoutout

(01:06:27) - Orban Era Ends

(01:08:13) - Europe Rightward Shift

(01:10:51) - Millennial Politics Rising

(01:14:37) - TMZ Comes To DC

(01:19:45) - Democracy Versus Elites

(01:22:11) - Making Geopolitics Fun

(01:25:39) - Sponsors And Signoff

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Episoder(58)

Cousins After Dark

Cousins After Dark

Recorded late at night from New Orleans and Montreal, Jacob and Marko dig into the Iran-Hormuz standoff as oil prices climb and the ceasefire holds... for now. They debate who bears the blame, whether...

30 Apr 1h 17min

The Supply Hole

The Supply Hole

Oil analyst Rory Johnston joins Jacob and Marko to break down why energy experts are alarmed by the Strait of Hormuz closure while markets remain at an all time high. Like wtf. Rory explains the 13 mi...

24 Apr 1h 30min

Strategic Vibe Reserves

Strategic Vibe Reserves

China isn't losing the energy war with America, it's not even flinching. Jacob and Marko break down why the "choke China's oil" thesis is economically illiterate, why the US and China actually want th...

21 Apr 1h 21min

Taco Tuesday

Taco Tuesday

Marko is unbothered by ceasefire hand-wringing. He argues the Strait of Hormuz traffic was already recovering before any deal — because Iran is rationally cashing in through a tolling mechanism, not r...

9 Apr 1h 15min

The Spice Must Flow!

The Spice Must Flow!

We recorded this pre-speech episode earlier today (April 1st), racing the clock before Trump's evening address. Marko seems to think that Trump will zag spectacularly - not taco, not escalate, but ann...

2 Apr 1h 18min

Mad Max: Hormuz Warrior

Mad Max: Hormuz Warrior

The boys are back! It's only been like 13 days!! Chill!! Also - the Iran conflict isn't just a headline risk - it's a physical supply crisis hiding in plain sight. Despite oil sitting at $93, Marko ar...

27 Mar 1h 45min

Marko's Pain-Based Punitive Airpower Global Response Equation

Marko's Pain-Based Punitive Airpower Global Response Equation

Marko walks through his mathematical framework for how long the US-Iran conflict lasts: (Iran's pain tolerance) - (America's punitive air campaign) - (the global response to Hormuz closure) = ?????The...

13 Mar 1h 21min

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