More or Less19 Des 2025

2026 Tech Predictions: AI Layoffs, a $500B IPO, and the Death of SaaS as We Know It

The pod signs off for the year with its final episode—a sharp, chaotic recap of last year’s predictions and a fresh round of hot takes for 2026. Sam and Dave, unsurprisingly, wing it: Sam calls a single $500B+ IPO (SpaceX), Google up, NVIDIA down, and Meta hitting new highs on AI-powered ads. Jess warns that AI-driven efficiency will fuel layoffs (especially in journalism) and that CapEx hype is outrunning reality. Dave predicts a boom in third places and games-first IP, while Britt bets on an Apple comeback, AI wearables as daily “life summarizers,” a breakout AI-native social app, and a celebrity licensing their AI twin. True to form, the crew goes off script to debate Amazon’s rumored $10B OpenAI deal, AI as the new UI, which model builders survive, regulation looming over prediction markets, “slop” as word of the year, GLP-1s going mainstream, creators eyeing Emmys, and much more. Chapters:

01:50 Morin’s “Nauti or Nice” Holiday Card

04:06 Sam’s 2025 Predictions: Bitcoin, Solana ETFs, Crypto Government Adoption

05:16 Britt’s 2025 Predictions: Amazon Marketplace, Elon’s “TITS,” Swift Engagement

07:52 Dave’s 2025 Predictions: Data Centers, Material Flow Robotics, Crypto Clarity

10:18 Jess’s 2025 Predictions: TikTok U.S., Vertical Stacks, Media Copyright, GLP-1s

11:40 2025 Themes: “Slop,” AI Talent Wars, Government–Tech Ties

12:58 Big Tech Check-In: Apple Loses Ground, Google’s Delta

13:41 Amazon’s $10B OpenAI Bet and Chip Diplomacy

16:16 Britt’s 2026 Predictions: Apple Comeback, Wearable Agents, AI Talent Deals

21:45 Jess’s 2026 Predictions: AI-Driven Layoffs, Liquidity Wave, Prediction Market Regulation

28:57 Dave’s 2026 Predictions: Third Places, Games-First IP, Roblox Scrutiny

36:17 Sam’s 2026 Predictions: One $500B+ IPO, Nvidia Down, Google Up, Meta ATH

44:13 AI Is the New UI: SaaS UX Moats Under Pressure

49:35 Does AI Adult Content Go Mainstream?

50:04 Dave on Google Doppl and AI Try-On Tech

51:28 Britt’s Pop Corner: Taylor Swift Album and Pregnancy Speculation

52:19 Industry Wish List: More DPI, Kids’ Mental Health, Waymos EverywhereWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/ehO3wIio7NwConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

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Episoder(172)

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