Could Soaring Twin Deficits Portend October Surprise? – Ep.  394

Could Soaring Twin Deficits Portend October Surprise? – Ep. 394

JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conference
https://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/
Ominous October
Today was the end of the month of September; it's also the end of the third quarter we are now beginning the final quarter of the year. When we come back to trading next week, we will be in the month of October, and as I mentioned on my last podcast, we have had some substantial stock market declines in October, obviously not every October has a big drop, in fact most of the Octobers don't, but some of the most notable declines have occurred in the month of October, including the crash of 1987 and the crash of 1929.
You'd Think There Would Be More Concern
But given that our valuations are probably higher now than they were at those prior peaks, you would think that there would be more concern right now about the possibility of another October surprise in the way of a major decline in the stock market. But the stock market finished the day positive - on the week it was a mixed picture. The Dow Jones was down a bit and the NASDAQ was up on a week that the Federal Reserve did, in fact, raise interest rates yet again, as expected. Now we're at 2-2.25%.
Italy's Economy Putting Pressure on the Euro
The yield, though, on the long bond actually went down, in fact, it was down a little bit again today (Buy the rumor sell the fact). The dollar continued to rise and I thought that maybe we would have seen a dollar sell-off following the rate hike. But I think the reason is because of the weakness in the euro, the result of what's going on in Italy. The Italian market is under a lot of pressure because the Italian government is running deficits that exceed 2% deficit guideline imposed by the Eurozone. I think that Italy's proposed new budget deficit is 2.4% of Italian GDP. This puts pressure on Italy which is also putting pressure on the euro.
Our Debt to GDP Is Twice That of Italy
It's interesting that if America tried to get into the EU, we couldn't because out debt to GDP is about 5% and that's now. It will soar well over 10% in the next recession. Our debt is twice as high relative to our GDP as Italy's. If we keep running trade deficits like the trade deficit that we printed this month, we are going to be having a serious crisis in the dollar. It was bad trade deficits and concerns about the dollar was one of the biggest reasons we had the 1987 stock market crash.

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Episoder(1085)

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SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 12

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SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 11

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SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 10

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 10

Episode 10 Synopsis Hillary's Fractured Economic Theory: * Raising the minimum wage will create jobs. * Businesses don't create jobs; the government creates jobs. * Regan Economics "failed spectacularly". * Clinton's economy was based on "arithmetic", not a bubble. Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 9

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Episode 9 Synopsis * Deflation Spin Cycle: Peter debunks recent articles "redefining" deflation. * QE Infinity: Brandeis economics professor predicts the Fed doesn't need an exit strategy. Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

29 Okt 201421min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 8

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 8

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28 Okt 201413min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 7

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 7

Episode 7 Synopsis * More deflation/inflation propaganda * The Fed prefers inflation because at least they know how to fight it * Money printing in Venezuela* Bloomberg warns Yellen not to follow Sweden's example * Obamacare premiums going up after the election* Mark Cuban's plan to limit student loans * Wells Fargo employee demands $10,000 raise for himself and other employees * British Minister under fire for suggesting intellectually disabled should be able to work for less than minimum wage * News about QE4 * Yellen ironically speaks up on wealth inequality Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Okt 20142h 12min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 6

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 6

Episode 6 Synopsis * Big downside moves in global equity markets * U.S. stock market trends * Gold moves upward * U.S. Dollar weakness * A detailed analysis of this month's FOMC minutes * Share buybacks and other artificial boots to the stock market * More Obamacare blowbacks against the job market and employee healthcare * The straight story on misleading reports on the economy * How California labor law put a vineyard out of business * Interview with Paypal co-founder Peter Thiel in his new book Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Okt 20142h 20min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 5

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 5

Episode 5 Synopsis: * Debunking Ned Davis' predictions on gold * Chicago Fed president Charles Evans hints that the Fed can't raise interest rates * Alan Greenspan gives Fed a pass on CNBC * Brokerage houses hit by FINRA arbritation results * Eurozone low inflation 'scare' * Collapse in Fannie and Freddie stock * The numbers behind the weekly economic data Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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