Could Soaring Twin Deficits Portend October Surprise? – Ep.  394

Could Soaring Twin Deficits Portend October Surprise? – Ep. 394

JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conference
https://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/
Ominous October
Today was the end of the month of September; it's also the end of the third quarter we are now beginning the final quarter of the year. When we come back to trading next week, we will be in the month of October, and as I mentioned on my last podcast, we have had some substantial stock market declines in October, obviously not every October has a big drop, in fact most of the Octobers don't, but some of the most notable declines have occurred in the month of October, including the crash of 1987 and the crash of 1929.
You'd Think There Would Be More Concern
But given that our valuations are probably higher now than they were at those prior peaks, you would think that there would be more concern right now about the possibility of another October surprise in the way of a major decline in the stock market. But the stock market finished the day positive - on the week it was a mixed picture. The Dow Jones was down a bit and the NASDAQ was up on a week that the Federal Reserve did, in fact, raise interest rates yet again, as expected. Now we're at 2-2.25%.
Italy's Economy Putting Pressure on the Euro
The yield, though, on the long bond actually went down, in fact, it was down a little bit again today (Buy the rumor sell the fact). The dollar continued to rise and I thought that maybe we would have seen a dollar sell-off following the rate hike. But I think the reason is because of the weakness in the euro, the result of what's going on in Italy. The Italian market is under a lot of pressure because the Italian government is running deficits that exceed 2% deficit guideline imposed by the Eurozone. I think that Italy's proposed new budget deficit is 2.4% of Italian GDP. This puts pressure on Italy which is also putting pressure on the euro.
Our Debt to GDP Is Twice That of Italy
It's interesting that if America tried to get into the EU, we couldn't because out debt to GDP is about 5% and that's now. It will soar well over 10% in the next recession. Our debt is twice as high relative to our GDP as Italy's. If we keep running trade deficits like the trade deficit that we printed this month, we are going to be having a serious crisis in the dollar. It was bad trade deficits and concerns about the dollar was one of the biggest reasons we had the 1987 stock market crash.

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Episoder(1085)

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 4

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 4

Episode 4 Synopsis * Launch of the iPhone 6 * Surprising employment arbitration results * Housing market rolls over * Hotel minimum wage * World Bank head claims that QE works Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 3

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 3

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 3 Synopsis: * FOMC: Janet Yellen's official statement and her response to her Q&A, later in the day * Market reaction to Yellen's statement, and the "walk" vs the "talk". * The Ali Baba IPO * The breakdown in the price of Bitcoin * My crazy email exchange with CNBC's Joe Kernen * Scotland votes to remain in the UK Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Sep 20142h 4min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 2

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 2

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 2 Synopsis * Economic Data - More weak data * Purchase applications index declined by 7.2% - biggest decline in 14 years * Treasury yields slightly up for the week * Retail sales up - Buying more or paying more? * auto purchases with cheap money * inflation not taken into account * Auto loans increasingly delinquent * Fed Policy * I'll admit to being wrong if the Fed raises interest rates back to normal and shrinks its balance sheet back to normal, as promised, and does not produce a financial crisis. * Interest Rates * Negative Interest Rates in Japan and in Switzerland * Inflation * Paul Krugman says we should be at 4% inflation and a minimum wage of $10.10 * Commentary on Henry Blodgett's inflation comments * Column from David K. Johnson on how corporations are getting rich by paying taxes * Employment * Jobless claims up, indicating a trend change * The Economy * Recognizing bubbles ahead of the crisis * Europe - Poll on Scottish independence * Social Issues: * The NBA in the hot seat for racism * Over-reaction to the Ray Rice story Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

15 Sep 20142h 3min

Schiff Radio Podcast Episode 1

Schiff Radio Podcast Episode 1

Schiff Radio Podcast Episode 1  Synopsis: * Wall Street foolishly dismisses August's horrible Jobs Report * ECB cuts rates in misguided push for higher inflation. * "Shrink-flation," what is it and why those using the term still don't get it. * Implications of Switzerland's coming gold reserve vote . * Protesting Fast food workers determined to put themselves out of work. * Does Alibaba's biggest IPO in history shows portent more interest in foreign stocks? * Countrywide's Anthony Mozilo is not the real villain. * NY Fed concedes 25% of college grads wasted their time and money. Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

9 Sep 20141h 52min

Schiff Radio – January 1, 2014

Schiff Radio – January 1, 2014

Happy Holidays!, Due to the holidays, Peter Schiff Show is airing best-of broadcasts. Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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