Addiction 26: The Secret Challenges of Predicting Problem Gambling with Data, with Dr Rob Heirene

In this spectacularly brilliant episode – brought to you by GLI! – we explore the complexities of problem gambling, risk prediction models, and regulatory challenges. Join us as Dr. Rob Heirine shares insights from his research on using behavioural data to identify at-risk gamblers and evaluate harm reduction policies.

What we talk about, but in a list:

• Challenges in predicting problem gambling using operator data
• Limitations and biases in self-reported problem gambling measures like PGSI
• The importance of target variables and transparency in predictive models
• Practical considerations for implementing affordability checks and loss limits
• The role of behavioural indicators and real-time detection in intervention
• Ethical and regulatory issues around thresholds, metrics, and model explainability

Choice quotes:

• "Changing the target is more vital than tweaking algorithms."
• "The subjective misunderstanding of one's spending is a potent risk signal."
• "A system's credibility hinges on how well stakeholders understand and trust its judgments."
• "Current risk is best assessed over recent days or weeks."
• "Simplicity introduces bias, leading to over- or under-inclusion of at-risk individuals."
• "Trust in algorithms depends on rigorous validation and openness."
• "Gambling harm is not solely a behavioural phenomenon but includes personal, social, and mental health dimensions."

Timestamps:

00:00 - Introduction and guest Dr. Rob Heirine's background

01:30 - Challenges of predicting problem gambling from operational data

03:00 - Limitations of self-exclusion as a predictor

04:45 - The difficulty of behavioural and self-reported measures

06:00 - The importance of target variables and validation in modeling

08:00 - How model transparency influences regulation and trust

10:30 - Effectiveness of prompts and limit-setting policies

13:00 - Problems with using short-term data windows for prediction

15:30 - The small prevalence of problem gamblers and implications for models

17:00 - Using treatment-seeking behavior as a risk indicator

19:00 - Thresholds and rule-based approaches vs. complex models

21:30 - Challenges of real-time behavioural detection and lag in intervention

23:00 - The importance of transparency, explainability, and trust in algorithms

25:00 - Behavioural discrepancies, underestimating spending, and subjective experiences

28:00 - Incorporating affordability and expenditure data into predictive models

31:00 - Evaluation metrics: sensitivity, specificity, and their limitations in gambling research

34:00 - Using behavioral indicators like deposit and withdrawal patterns

37:00 - Feedback systems and behavioral summaries as harm prevention tools

40:00 - Combining behavioral and self-report data for effective risk assessment

43:00 - The effect of participant bias in surveys and population estimates

46:00 - Measuring harm at population vs. individual risk levels

48:00 - Optimal time windows for assessing gambling behaviour

Resources & Links:

GLI: https://gaminglabs.com/

Rob on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/robert-heirene/

The Gambling Files on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-gambling-files-podcast/

Addiction: An Hour With Auer is a weekly podcast where hosts Dr Michael Auer – he of the title – and Jon Bruford talk about addiction in all its forms. Not just gambling addiction, they discuss all forms of addiction with experts, academics and researchers from around the world.

This episode comes to you courtesy of the excellent Gaming Laboratories International.

GLI is a world-class Testing, Inspections and Certification company committed to delivering the highest quality land-based, lottery, and iGaming testing and assessment services, working in more than 710 jurisdictions.

For more information, visit gaminglabs.com.

Dr Auer on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-auer-51a48a/

Jon Bruford on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jon-bruford-84346636/

Podcast homepage: https://www.thegamblingfiles.com/addiction/

Media behemoth homepage: https://www.thegamblingfiles.com/

Other podcasts we do:

https://www.thegamblingfiles.com/the-gambling-files/

https://www.thegamblingfiles.com/dessert-island-discs/