A Rally Built on Fragile Ground | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
The OPEX Effect15 Jun 2025

A Rally Built on Fragile Ground | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

In the latest episode of the OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba dive deep into the dynamics shaping the current market regime, with a particular focus on the upcoming June OPEX, dealer positioning, volatility trends, and the surprising resilience of the S&P 500 amid geopolitical stress. They break down how options flows continue to dominate equity price action, why the market remains pinned despite negative news, and what might finally break the calm. With some of the largest options expirations in history on deck, this is a must-watch for anyone following volatility, hedging flows, and macro signals.

💡 Topics Covered:

Why volatility often contracts before OPEX and expands after

The significance of the June 2025 OPEX as potentially the largest ever

Dealer gamma, hedging flows, and what they signal about near-term volatility

Why implied vol is so low despite major geopolitical risk (e.g. Israel-Iran conflict)

The JP Morgan collar trade and its influence on the 5,900 level in the S&P

How zero-DTE options impact market stability and risk signaling

A potential regime shift: AI stocks, “taco trades,” and declining liquidity

What vol metrics like VIX, VVIX, and correlation are really saying

The hidden risk of overconfidence when markets ignore bad news

Breakdown of sector-specific volatility expectations (tech, energy, gold, Bitcoin)

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Episoder(36)

Big Rally Collides with Oil and Rate Reality | What the Options Market Says Comes Next

Big Rally Collides with Oil and Rate Reality | What the Options Market Says Comes Next

SpotGamma founder Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to break down September options expiration, the S&P 500's negative gamma risk, and what options positioning reveals about potential stock market vol...

12 Sep 59min

Big Semi Decline. Big Rally. Big Macro Risk | What the Options Market Says Comes Next

Big Semi Decline. Big Rally. Big Macro Risk | What the Options Market Says Comes Next

In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and SpotGamma founder Brent Kochuba break down how options expiration, 0DTE trading, dealer gamma and leveraged flows are shaping the stock market. Th...

15 Aug 51min

Not Since the Dot-Com Bubble | The Vol Signal Flashing for the First Time in 20 Years

Not Since the Dot-Com Bubble | The Vol Signal Flashing for the First Time in 20 Years

Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma is back for The OPEX Effect to explain why July options expiration could remove a major source of market support and open the door to a volatility spike or stock market corr...

11 Jul 1h 4min

SpaceX, OPEX, and the Flows Behind the Biggest IPO in History

SpaceX, OPEX, and the Flows Behind the Biggest IPO in History

In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand break down the market structure impact of the SpaceX IPO, options expiration, dealer gamma, volatility, and the next major setup for...

13 Jun 1h 7min

The Melt Up That No One Expected | What the Options Market Says About What Comes Next

The Melt Up That No One Expected | What the Options Market Says About What Comes Next

Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand for the May 2026 OPEX Effect to break down what options positioning is saying after a massive AI and semiconductor-led market rally. They discuss SPX cal...

9 Mai 1h 6min

The Market the Tweets Can’t Break | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

The Market the Tweets Can’t Break | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

This episode of The Opex Effect breaks down why markets have remained surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical chaos, an oil shock, and extreme headline risk. Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to a...

11 Apr 1h 8min

A 3% Drop from VIX 40 | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

A 3% Drop from VIX 40 | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

This episode breaks down the growing tension beneath the surface of today’s markets, where volatility signals, options positioning, and macro risks like war and inflation are increasingly misaligned. ...

20 Mar 1h 9min

Violently Going Nowhere | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

Violently Going Nowhere | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

In this episode of The Opex Effect, Jack and Brent break down the growing impact of options markets on stocks, volatility, and sector rotation. While the major indexes appear calm, massive moves benea...

15 Feb 1h 6min

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