The Limits of Predictive AI - Carissa Véliz with Nicholas Thompson

The Limits of Predictive AI - Carissa Véliz with Nicholas Thompson

Can AI predict a person’s future? It’s a promise often made by sales teams, but the technology’s record is far from spotless. Even if it did achieve perfect foresight, a practically-clairvoyant AI might be incompatible with democracy, says Oxford philosopher Carissa Véliz. In a spirited conversation with Nicholas Thompson, CEO of The Atlantic, Véliz traces the history of predictions from ancient oracles to the modern algorithms shaping everything from criminal sentencing to insurance premiums. What are the ethics of outsourcing such consequential decisions to machines? The risks of getting it wrong are obvious. Véliz warns of the dangers of getting it right. (00:00) Introduction to Carissa Véliz and her work on privacy and AI (01:29) Why "less crime" is an illusion of safety (02:30) How surveillance machinery enables prediction and social control (03:06) Defense of autonomy: why resisting surveillance protects freedom (04:02) Can mass surveillance ever be beneficial? (05:36) Ring cameras and the erosion of democratic anonymity (07:01) Prediction versus prophecy: how forecasts shape reality (08:52) Job displacement predictions and self-fulfilling prophecies (13:15) The Gettier problem: why probabilistic AI lacks justification (16:06) When probabilistic AI works and when it fails (18:52) Do individualized health predictions defeat the purpose of insurance? (25:24) Areas where probabilistic reasoning is inadequate: insurance, justice (27:48) The problems of effective altruism and utilitarian calculation (32:37) AI company ethics: copyright, rights, and virtue ethics (37:47) Can more data solve "the turkey problem?" (39:15) Practical privacy advice: Signal, Proton, VPN, and mindful choices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Episoder(35)

Writing in the Age of AI - Gemini Notebook’s Steven Johnson with Nicholas Thompson

Writing in the Age of AI - Gemini Notebook’s Steven Johnson with Nicholas Thompson

Steven Johnson spent decades figuring out the best ways to turn his research into words on the page. Now, he’s adapting those methods for Gemini Notebook, Google’s AI-powered interactive bibliography....

12 Aug 1h 2min

Meta's Plan to Win in AI - Andrew Bosworth with Nicholas Thompson

Meta's Plan to Win in AI - Andrew Bosworth with Nicholas Thompson

However you feel about Meta, Andrew Bosworth has likely played a part in it. The long-serving right hand to Mark Zuckerberg and current Chief Technology Officer, “Boz” has helped shape almost every st...

8 Jul 50min

AI’s Threat to Privacy —  Signal’s Meredith Whittaker with Nicholas Thompson

AI’s Threat to Privacy — Signal’s Meredith Whittaker with Nicholas Thompson

AI agents can scour the internet for us, reply to our messages, and add events to our calendars. But in order to do so, they need sweeping access to our data. Handing that over presents an unprecedent...

1 Jul 51min

Will AI Agents Kill Social Media–Or Save It? Eli Pariser with Nicholas Thompson

Will AI Agents Kill Social Media–Or Save It? Eli Pariser with Nicholas Thompson

Take a scroll through Facebook or TikTok today, and you’ll likely find some AI-generated content: an influencer with impossibly-radiant skin, a stunt that bends the laws of physics, Shrimp Jesus. And ...

24 Jun 44min

How AI Agents Are Changing Business - PwC’s Dan Priest with Nicholas Thompson

How AI Agents Are Changing Business - PwC’s Dan Priest with Nicholas Thompson

You've probably heard it already: AI is going to radically change the way we work. But the details change depending on who's making the prediction: AI will wipe out the C-suite, or entry-level jobs, o...

17 Jun 31min

How AI Is Changing Code - Paul Ford with Nicholas Thompson

How AI Is Changing Code - Paul Ford with Nicholas Thompson

In the last year, AI has arguably made more progress in coding than in any other domain. Its technical capabilities – harnessed through apps like Codex and Claude Code – have changed the way engineers...

10 Jun 50min

How Science Can Fix Dishonest AI - Yoshua Bengio with Nicholas Thompson

How Science Can Fix Dishonest AI - Yoshua Bengio with Nicholas Thompson

In the years following the launch of ChatGPT, as concerns spread over the social and political impacts of LLMs, one person’s warnings seemed particularly dire: Yoshua Bengio’s, a scientist  and one of...

3 Jun 50min

The AI Jobs Disruption - Erik Brynjolfsson with Nicholas Thompson

The AI Jobs Disruption - Erik Brynjolfsson with Nicholas Thompson

Of all the potential risks and promises of AI, perhaps none are as immediately dire as this: How will it impact jobs? Will employers still need workers? What will it mean if the answer is “no?” Depend...

27 Mai 1h 2min

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