The Second Derivative

The Second Derivative

The Strait of Hormuz is running out of runway - and so is the Trump administration's room to maneuver... The cousins unpack why oil inventories are the real ammunition in the Iran standoff, why markets keep hitting all-time highs despite closed shipping lanes, and what the AI economy's dominance says about the K-shaped world underneath. We close with NBA playoff predictions (duh) ahead of a Thunder-Spurs Game 7.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(00:28) - Weekend Hoops and Aging

(02:09) - Travel Grind and Vivid Dream

(04:23) - Tales From the Road Idea

(05:18) - Iran Deal or No Deal

(08:47) - Strait Tolls and Mixed Signals

(11:20) - Gas Prices and $250 Bill Bit

(13:59) - Communist Relics and Inflation Fears

(18:16) - Why Markets Hit Highs

(19:21) - Politics Versus Material Reality

(27:54) - AI Boom Meets K Economy

(32:15) - Fading Geopolitical Risk

(40:34) - Second Derivative Thinking

(47:02) - Savings Rate Double Click

(48:46) - Savings Rate Psychology

(51:09) - YOLO Trading Era

(53:57) - Savings Floor Risks

(55:46) - Summer Oil Squeeze

(56:57) - Sticky Inflation Drivers

(58:30) - Politics And The Fed

(01:00:15) - Markets And War Signals

(01:02:13) - Reflexivity In Geopolitics

(01:06:17) - Nihilism And Truth

(01:07:17) - Quick Hits USMCA Update

(01:12:12) - Moon Race Concerns

(01:15:35) - AI Data Centers In Space

(01:17:43) - World Cup Preview

(01:20:09) - Why World Cup Is Hard

(01:25:31) - Game Seven Predictions

(01:28:43) - LeBron Comparison Debate

(01:32:28) - Final Spurs Call

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

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Episoder(75)

The King of Israel

The King of Israel

It's been a minute. Marko and Jacob are back after a long gap, and not much has changed: the Hormuz standoff drags on, the war in Ukraine grinds forward, and the stock market shrugged it all off. Mark...

12 Aug 1h 22min

Lessons Learned

Lessons Learned

Round two. Same four analysts, a lot more whiskey, and a lot less structure. Peter Zeihan, Marko Papic, and Matt Gertken sit back down with Jacob - a man who cut his teeth pestering all three of them ...

31 Jul 1h 27min

This Is The Way The World Ends (w/ Zeihan & Gertken)

This Is The Way The World Ends (w/ Zeihan & Gertken)

Sixteen years after last sharing a table together, four Stratfor alumni reunite for a wide-ranging conversation on the decade ahead. Jacob and Marko are joined by Peter Zeihan, and Matt Gertken to tac...

29 Jul 1h 40min

What We Got Wrong About The World Cup (A LOT)

What We Got Wrong About The World Cup (A LOT)

The cousins reconvene with the BCA brain trust - Juan Correa, Robert Tipper, and Jeremie Peloso - for the World Cup post-mortem. The model called all four semifinalists but missed champion Spain, so t...

24 Jul 1h 22min

Operation Fun Run

Operation Fun Run

Iran again. Yes, again :( nobody's thrilled, but that's the content. The cousins break down a week of tanker attacks, retaliations to retaliations, and a 20% toll that became "great investments" in 24...

15 Jul 55min

A Little Belgium Cherub Gets to Pee in Trump's Pool

A Little Belgium Cherub Gets to Pee in Trump's Pool

Iran, Hormuz, another tanker on fire - sure, fine, but the real question is: what's actually driving the behavior here, and it's not the diplomacy everyone keeps quoting. Marko and Jacob argue it out:...

8 Jul 1h 26min

16 Books That Shaped Us

16 Books That Shaped Us

It's the Book Episode!!! Marko and Jacob turn their usual geopolitical sparring into a book draft: eight titles each, no rules, no rankings, just the texts that actually built their analytical muscle ...

6 Jul 1h 30min

The Esprit de Corps of Buc-ees

The Esprit de Corps of Buc-ees

Drones aren't a technological revolution - they're a pain-tolerance equalizer, letting Ukraine strike refineries deep inside a country that never planned to defend them. Jacob and Marko trace the defe...

27 Jun 1h 8min

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