Conspiracies of Optimism

President Eisenhower was notable in expressing his frustration at his civilian staff's unwillingness to challenge or disagree with him face to face. That practice, of being challenged and questioned, was something he valued when he served as Supreme Allied Commander but it seems less evident in military headquarters today, or in recent history. Nor is this a peculiarly American tendency: as researcher, author, and provocateur Dr Charles Vandepeer from Charles Sturt University points out, both the British, French, and Australian militaries have been prone to self-deception and optimism bias. Notable in acquisition and procurement decisions and behaviours, it is also present in military headquarters and by commanders. There is lots of evidence and research on how to overcome it yet using trite phrases such as "My door is always open" just won't cut it if leaders are serious about countering conspiracies of optimism that lead to operational failure. In order to confront reality, military leaders need to change their outlook and find more time for thinking. This might seem harder today than previously: in the age of real time chat, ubiquitous communications connectivity, and endless distractions, it is easier for leaders to doomscroll their way through command appointments than to make time and space for challenge, reality, and thinking.

This conversation came about because of this article from War On The Rocks from 2019: https://warontherocks.com/self-deception-and-the-conspiracy-of-optimism/

In his remarks, Charles noted the remarks made by Major General Chris Smith of the Australian Army in 2025 at the Chief of Army History Conference . Watch here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mv6wQiUu4yo