Can Uber's Robotaxis Scale?

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Uber’s Waymo hangover, Zoox launching paid rides in Las Vegas, the Teamsters suing California over driverless trucking, and NVIDIA’s Alpamayo 2 open model.

Uber is nursing a Waymo hangover. Revenue came in light on take rate, management finally owned the $10 billion autonomy spending number first reported by The Financial Times, and the stock sold back into the sixties as the autonomy overhang weighs on the story.

After 12 years, Zoox begins charging for rides in Las Vegas on August 10. An NHTSA filing surfaced by OMEGA reveals the catch, the vehicles cannot operate above 45 mph while average traffic out of Harry Reid International airport runs 55, complicating the airport unlock.

With 105 vehicles as of June across seven approved cities, pricing 20% to 40% above rideshare, and wait times stretching past an hour, Walt calls it tourism pricing for a Disney World attraction. Meanwhile, Waymo returned to freeways after a two-month pause, and OMEGA is picking up new Waymo corporate filings around the world.

Lucid burned over a billion dollars in the quarter but declared the Uber and Nuro robotaxi program a must-win project. The Teamsters sued the California DMV in Alameda Superior Court to repeal driverless trucking rules as autonomous trucking companies continue to rack up supervised miles in the state.

On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, Wayve received a TfL license to carry paying passengers in London with safety drivers across 15 vehicles, but the APS permit is the asset that controls every relationship in the market.

If Baidu secures one, it holds a clear off-ramp from Uber and FreeNow by Lyft to launch Apollo Go on its own. Meanwhile, Pony AI is targeting 500 to 1,000 Gen4 robotrucks in mainland China with CATL over the next two to three years, with a hint of foreign ports expansion.

Episode Chapters

0:00 Uber's Waymo Hangover

4:52 Zoox Prepares to Go Paid in Vegas

12:19 Waymo Returns to Freeways

14:13 Uber, Nuro, Lucid Robotaxi Timeline

20:30 DoorDash and the Market for Autonomous Food Delivery

26:08 NVIDIA Alpamayo 2

32:22 The Teamsters sue the California DMV over Driverless Trucking Rules

35:50 Tesla's China Business Question

39:00 Foreign Autonomy Desk

45:35 Next Week

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