TTU15: Model Decay & How Best to Handle It ft. Karsten Schroeder of Amplitude Capital – 1of2

In this week’s episode, Tim Pickering, Founder of Auspice Capital, joins me to discuss why commodities play such an important role in a portfolio, how to create a strategy that adapts to different volatility regimes, why he created The Auspice Broad Commodity Index, the role and importance of ESG in commodities trading, how commodity futures can be used as a risk mitigation tool, why Ukraine is so important for commodities, how to effectively protect yourself against inflation and much more-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Why commodities play such an important role in a portfolioHow to create a strategy that adapts to different volatility regimesHow ESG and commodities trading is closely relatedWhether to embrace Chinese commodity marketsWhy the war in Ukraine is so important for commoditiesStrategies for protecting yourself against inflation-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Tim on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:40 - What has caught Tim and Niels’ attention recently? 06:33 - What has happened since last Niels and Tim spoke in 2014?11:45 - Has Tim made any major research discoveries since last time?19:31 - Why commodities and why now?30:50 - How much room for liquidity is there in the markets?37:32 - Tim’s thoughts on the LME44:31 - Thoughts on commodity exposure and futures51:51 - Why is Ukraine so important for commodities?01:00:16...

9 Apr 20221h 9min

In today’s episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Katherine Molnar, CIO of Fairfax County Police Officers Retirement System, and Andrew Spellar, CIO of Fairfax County Employees Retirement System, to discuss how asset allocation is handled by one of the best performing public pension funds, how they manage risk and balance their portfolio through diversification, how the current instability in the markets has shaped their investment strategy, expectations of returns for different investment strategies, running portfolios using a risk parity framework, moving into digital assets, manager selection and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How asset allocation is handled in a successful public pension fund like Fairfax County Retirement SystemHow they manage risk and create balance in their portfoliosHow instability in the markets has shaped their strategyHow they look at return expectationsThe (brave) move into digital assetsManager selectionSkills and challenges of being a CIO-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Katherine on LinkedIn.Follow Andrew on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:05 - Overview of Fairfax County’s asset allocation strategy14:27 - How has the current market

6 Apr 20221h 10min

Today, Rich and I discuss the Q1 Trend Following performance and how it turned out to be one of the best calendar quarters for the SG Trend and SG CTA indices. We also dive into my own "thesis" about trend following in a De-Globalized world and why I believe that we may be returning to the golden era of trend following, like in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. As usual we debated a few great questions from our community, relating to Volatility Targeting and how to manage your Stop-Loss. A lively episode for sure!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Interest Rates and the current Bear Market in BondsOur slighltly different definitions of the term "Crisis Alpha"The concern's Rich has for the World, and what that means for Trend FollowingThe impact on Trend Following of a De-Globalization of the WorldThe difference between initial and trailling stops, and when to use themWhat software to use to backtest your systemsWhether dynamically adjusting your position size during a trade is better or worse than keeping it static-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro03:09 – Weekly recap from Niels05:22 - Update on Rich's Battleship15:35 - Crisis Alpha...yes but much more21:40 - My Trend Following Thesis37:24 - Q1, Andrew: Could you all define the use of a trailing vs initial stop in systems you use?52:25 - Q2, Nicolas: Do you know any affordable back testing systems, other than...

3 Apr 20221h 24min

Today, Alan Dunne is joined by Ted Seides, host and creator of the Capital Allocators podcast, to discuss the investment approach and philosophy of David Swensen, the Yale Model and how Seides has used the model to develop his own approach, whether being a hedgefond allocator has become gradually more difficult over the years, the bet Seides made with Warren Buffett, asset allocation vs. manager selection and the challenges to overcome, what Seides has learned from doing his podcast, decision making processes and governance, crypto currencies and digital assets and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The philosophy of David Swensen and the Yale ModelHow the role of hedge funds has changed over the yearsThe bet Seides made with Warren BuffettAsset allocation vs. manager selection and the challenges to overcomeWhat Seides has learned from doing his podcastThe importance of leadership and time managementThe difficulty of making a good decision in the heat of the momentThe future of crypto currencies and digital assets-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Ted on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:23 - Ted’s background07:35 - How Seides deviates from Swensen in his approach10:36 - The Yale Model and the end of 60/4015:55 - Is it more difficult to be a hedgefond allocator...

30 Mar 20221h 3min

Mark Rzepczynski joins me in this week’s episode, to discuss strategies for rebalancing your portfolio, the coming de-globalisation and its impact on Trend Following, especially in light of events in Ukraine, the Hedger’s dilemma and how the LME may have lost the trust of its clients, divergence and how it might cause disruption in markets, what Mark learned from working with Ned Johnson III at Fidelity, and how the principle of Kaizen can be applied to trend following.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Different strategies for rebalancing your portfolioHow de-globalisation can impact Trend FollowingThe recent events in Nickel trading at the LMEHow divergence might cause disruption in markets,How the Japanese philosophy, Kaizen, can be applied to trend following-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:10 - Market recap04:41 - What has caught Mark’s attention recently?13:46 - Overview of the week18:28 - Q1, Brett: Any thoughts on rebalancing based on trending performance?30:45 - Trend Following, globalization and the Dark Ages47:15 - What happened at LME?59:18 - Fidelity, Edward Johnson and the Kaizen philosophy01:14:29 - Update on performance Resources discussed in this Episode:Link: Edward ‘Ned’ Johnson,...

26 Mar 20221h 18min

In this episode, Niels and Rob is joined by Kevin Coldiron, co-author of the book “The Rise of Carry” and lecturer in Asset Management at UC Berkeley, to discuss the use of carry trading as a trading strategy, how it relates to volatility and risk, how carry trading creates market feedback effects, and how that is distinct from feedback created by other strategies, how it can play a role in financial bubbles, whether we are still in a carry regime or transitioning away from it and what comes after.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, we discuss:The increasing popularity of carry trading and its role in the global economyThe risk and volatility of carry trading, and how it can play a role in financial bubblesHow carry trading creates market feedback effects, and how that is distinct from feedback created by other strategiesThe role of liquidity within the carry worldThe future of carry-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on TwitterEpisode Timestamps:00:00 - Intro02:25 - Introduction to Kevin05:53 - Background on the co-authors of Kevin’s book09:43 - Definition of carry trading with examples13:56 - Volatility vs. risk23:11 - The role of Volatility in investing28:27 - Carry trade suppressing volatility35:55 - Does carry trades play a role in financial bubbles?41:01 - The current carry regime?43:38 - Carry in macroeconomics52:48 - What...

23 Mar 20221h 6min

In today's episode Alan Dunne joins me to discuss many different aspects of trend following - its relevance, strengths, weaknesses and future, roll-harvesting strategies, what causes trends in markets, whether it is too late to invest in trend following, its role within risk mitigation, how investors perceive trend following and if you really need to trade strategies that fits your personality.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Trend following and its strengths, weaknesses, relevance and futureDealing with volatility as a trend followerFinding investment strategies that fits your personalityWhat causes trends in marketsRisk mitigation strategies-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:45 - Market recap04:32 - Overview of the week11:35 - Q1, ABE: What are your opinion on roll-harvesting strategies?21:06 - What causes trends in markets?43:05 - Is it too late to invest in trend following?50:22 - Risk mitigation and investor perception of Trend Following58:42 - Key insights from the Allocator series so far01:06:51 - Update on performanceResources discussed in this Episode:Hedge funds pull in another USD11.29bn in JanuaryCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

20 Mar 20221h 9min

In this episode Hari is joined by Alex Gurevich, author, PhD in mathematics and founder of HonTe Investments, to discuss how he values bonds differently to many investors today, how to build a balanced portfolio, the many ways to loose money when buying an option (even if you are "kinda" right) as well as how he makes decisions as a trader, how to manage stress and keep a healthy lifestyle as a hedge fund manager and what the future of the global financial markets may look like.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How different types of bonds are valuatedThe pattern in how many times the FED tends to move rates, once they beginWhy Rate cycles are getting shorter (in time)Why Alex believes that the FED should not raise rates before reducing their balance sheetAlex playbook for the Ukrainian crisis: Oil could collapse to $40 and Rates could go back to zeroHow your performance can end up defining who you are (if you are not careful)The synchronisation of the central banks and how the future might look for the global financial market-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Follow Alex on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:42 - Introduction to Alex and his background07:20 - How Alex think about bonds16:37 - Have bonds become more important since 2008?18:15 - Making decisions as a trader, and handling...

16 Mar 20221h 1min