TTU15: Model Decay & How Best to Handle It ft. Karsten Schroeder of Amplitude Capital – 1of2

Jerry Parker joins me in today’s episode to discuss trend following as a robust guide to the markets in a world of instability and insecurity. We also discuss the recent short squeeze in nickel which has led to an unprecidented response from the LME, how to develop a trend following system, and what to do if you miss a breakout trade. We dive into when to trade index-based products vs. single stocks, how to manage trailing stops, and Jerry's decision to stop doing trend following research and rounding off our conversation with interesting and somewhat provocative tweets from Jerry. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Trend following and volatility in relation to the current situation in UkraineThe recent short squeeze in nickel trading and the reaction from the LMETips and tricks to grow as a trend followerHow to develop a good trend following systemHow to manage trailing stopsHow Jerry managed his short Russian stock positionWhat Jerry will focus on as he stops doing Trend Following Research-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:40 - Summary of the week08:03 - What happened this week with nickel trading14:53 - Q1, Josh: Any tips and tricks for Trend Following investing and ETFs?31:57 - Q2, William: How do you react following a missed breakout?37:11 - Q3, ABE: Is it wise to avoid Index-based products and how to trade CTA Index Futures? How do CTAs as an industry, become part of the...

12 Mar 20221h 23min

In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Chris Schelling, Chief Investment Strategist at Venturi Private Wealth and author of the book “Better Than Alpha”, to discuss asset allocation and how assets are managed in the private space vs institutional space, about disrupting the 60/40 model and formulating a new standard, the evolution of the industry over the years, the role of liquidity in asset allocation, the use of Alpha and Beta in investment, what it takes to be a skilled manager and the risk of manager selection.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How are assets managed in the private space vs institutional spaceBiases in asset allocation and how to overcome them.Using Alpha, Beta and other investment strategiesDue diligence and things to avoid in the processThe risks of manager selection and what it takes to be a good manager.-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Chris Schelling on LinkedIn & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:23 - About Chris’s background and his role at Venturi12:45 - Disrupting the 60/40 model and formulating a new standard17:54 - How the industry has evolved over the...

9 Mar 20221h 9min

Today Rob Carver joins me to discuss how the Trend Following world is reacting to the aweful situation in Ukraine and how it affects markets and volatility, discussing the moral aspects of trend following in times of crises and we take lots of questions from our community regarding how to handle parabolic market moves, if trend following is over-crowded, who we believe is the next David Harding, how to allocate to different speeds of Momentum/Trend Following as well as thoughts on rebalancing assets and portfolios and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How the aweful situation in Ukraine affects trend following and volatilityRebalancing strategies within your portfolioThe advantage of systematizing your tradingWhen I sat down with the founds of AHL at Abbey Road Studios-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:15 - Update on markets05:50 - What has caught attention and review on performance27:08 - Status on Rob’s book29:27 - Q1, Harry: What might next frontier be that seems silly today, but common sense later? Who's the next David Harding?34:04 - Q2, Ravi: What are the implications to the markets and the wider global economy?39:00 - Q3, Zoran: How do you navigate through such events (war in Ukraine) as a systematic investor?46:00 - Q4, Richard: If trend following ever became overcrowded, could you identify it and would you take any...

5 Mar 20221h 25min

On today’s episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Alan Higgins, the CIO and Chief Market Strategise of Coutts UK, also known as the Queens Bank, to discuss sound ways to invest in today’s environment, Alan’s interest at an early age in how to earn a risk premium, being a 60/40 investor and how the strategy will evolve, asset management vs. wealth management, distressed debt investing, behavioural biases, inflation, equity and interest rates, as well as the Yale Approach finishing off with some book recommendations on asset allocation and investing.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:What the 60/40 portfolio will look like in the next decadeThe surprise of markets ability to trendThe value of Risk Mitigation, but how it’s not enoughInsights to the inflationary period in the UK under Nigel LawsonWhy this time feels differentLessons from the 1987 Crash-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Alan Higgins on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:05 - Alan’s background and current role04:44 - Risk premium and fixed income24:33 - Setbacks and drawdowns26:45 - Inflation35:06 - Interest rates, bonds and dividends43:22 - Asset allocation and portfolio construction46:18 - Alan’s role at Eighteen48 Partners48:33...

2 Mar 20221h 3min

Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the power of Trend Following during periods of heightened uncertainty, Trend Following applied to the ESG space, how endogenous price shocks cause longer-term trends, the new Top Traders Monthly Trend Following report, shorter-term Trend Following versus longer-term, and how ‘buy the dip’ investors are likely unprepared for sustained underperformance in stocks.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Why now might be the best time to be invested in Trend Following strategiesHow systematic investing can be applied to the ESG spaceThe cause of longer-term price trendsThe Top Traders Monthly Trend Following reportThe best lookback period for Trend Following modelsThe need to diversify away from the ‘buy the dip’ mentality-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro03:49 – Macro recap from Niels06:40 – Weekly review of performance16:35 – Thoughts on Niels, Rich & Jerrys’ LinkedIn conversation with Harold De Boer of Transtrend23:16 – Q1; Frank : How do you see Trend Following strategies fitting into the ESG space?31:43 – Why we developed the Top Traders Monthly...

27 Feb 20221h 23min

Alan Dunne is joined today by Elizabeth Burton to discuss managing a public fund versus a private fund, the challenges to those invested in the traditional 60 / 40 portfolio, the current outlook for inflation, performing above expectations, how to re-position a portfolio for higher expected inflation, fixed income versus real assets, categorising asset classes effectively, the limits of mean variance optimisation, using historical perspectives as an input into current decision-making, difficulties in the manager selection process, and how to simplify complex ideas in order to communicate more efficiently.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The outlook for inflationAchieving high performance consistentlyHow to re-allocate a portfolio accordinglyMean variance optimisationWhether this time is differentSelecting the right managerSimplifying complexity for better understandingFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:30 - Elizabeth’s background and history in the investment world04:55 - Elizabeth’s perspective on today’s markets06:52 - Managing a public fund versus a private fund08:14 - Performing above expectations09:38 - The current outlook for inflation11:31 - How to re-position a portfolio for higher...

23 Feb 20221h 3min

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Trend Following versus Momentum strategies, the need to be humble about making economic forecasts, how Central Bank policies affect Trend Following performance, Cathie Wood and ARKK coming under pressure from the media, Trend Following on options, calculating a systems’ risk-to-stop, vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk, hard data versus stories, when to apply the ‘Moscow rules’.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How Trend Following differs to momentumAvoiding the need to make predictionsThe Federal Reserve and its effects on Trend Following strategiesARKK’s media scrutiny following recent poor performanceThe similarities between Trend Following and optionsHow to calculate ‘risk-to-stop’Qualifying new investors before accepting them as clientsThe “Moscow Rules"-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:02 – Macro recap from Niels04:39 – Weekly review of performance23:00 – Q1 Zack: How should I calculate the risk-to-stop metric?28:42 – Q2 Peregrine: Vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk 42:09 – Q3 Graham: Can you detail some of the definitions of a breakout?47:24 – Trend Following versus Momentum01:00:58 – Molecules of prices01:08:31 – Data versus stories and when to...

19 Feb 20221h 17min

Alan Dunne is joined today by Sebastien Page to discuss how price shocks affect correlations, approaches to strategic asset allocation, how to position portfolios for the years ahead, the current outlook for equities their various sectors, investing in a rising interest rate environment, responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets, defining and achieving utility maximisation, the merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis, how to properly diversify a portfolio, the durability of treasury bonds, lessons from research on high performance individuals and teams, achieving a state of ‘flow’, and how to simplify complex financial topics.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Ever-changing market correlationsStrategic asset allocationResponding to interest rate changesAchieving utility maximisationMean variance analysisPortfolio diversificationTreasury bondsHigh performance teamsSimplifying complexityFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Sebastien on LinkedIn & read his book.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:52 - Sebastien’s journey into the investment management industry07:45 - How Sebastien’s book came about09:39 - Current view on the...

16 Feb 20221h 16min