ALO32: AI Booms, Fiscal Strains and the New Macro Regime ft. Joe Little
Alan Dunne speaks with HSBC Asset Management’s Global Chief Strategist, Joe Little, about what happens when the old macro rules stop working. Joe traces the shift from a demand led, low inflation world to a supply constrained regime of sticky and spiky prices, where 2 percent becomes a floor rather than a target. He explains the “reverse bond conundrum,” rising term premia and the quiet return of fiscal dominance. The conversation explores AI as investment boom, not yet productivity cure, the maturing of emerging markets, the fate of the dollar and how to build truly multipolar portfolios.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Joe on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening clip, long bonds misbehaving and the “reverse bond yield conundrum”00:55 - Introduction and risk disclosure for Top Traders Unplugged listeners01:50 - Joe’s path from economist to global chief strategist and house view author05:16 - From post crisis disinflation to a supply constrained, sticky inflation regime10:32 - Why 2 percent looks like a floor, tariffs, profits and delayed inflation effects13:34 - 2026 baseline: muddle through growth, positive policy impulse and inflation nuance16:42 - AI as capital expenditure boom, echoes of the 1990s and the missing productivity surge20:40 - China and Asia: regionalisation, industrial policy and an exit from...
3 Des 1h 5min
SI376: What They’re Only Now Starting to See ft. Andrew Beer
In this week’s Systematic Investor episode, Niels and Andrew Beer explore how a broken 60/40 paradigm is forcing wealth managers into a new world of “other” diversifiers. Andrew reflects on the Goldman Sachs report about private wealth flows, the rise of liquid alts and why big houses are suddenly launching trend ETFs. The conversation dives into replication versus traditional CTAs, the true cost of complexity, and Simplify’s new index-based product built on Andrew’s strategy. Along the way they debate pods, Bitcoin, and Andrew’s evolving metaphor of managed futures as a cloudy, but occasionally crystal-clear, macro crystal ball.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro and Thanksgiving reflections, gratitude and mood after the holiday01:14 - Goldman report: trillions from wealthy investors and a seismic shift away from 60/4003:38 - Why bonds stopped diversifying and the growth of the “other” bucket in portfolios05:44 - Liquid alts vs illiquid alts and the timing of big firms launching trend ETFs08:25 - Odd Lots, pods and Dalio’s skepticism on multi-strats’ future09:22 - Bitcoin’s volatile run and rumors of a manipulated pullback10:59 - November performance: zigzags in trend indices and short-term traders’ struggles12:55 - How DBMF positioned: concentration, short yen, euro pain and being contrarian post “Liberation Day”16:05 - Are we still “replication”? Alternative data beta, tracking error and what’s really...
29 Nov 1h 6min
IL43: The Land Trap: How Property Shapes Power ft. Mike Bird
In today’s episode we talk about the world’s oldest, and still most important asset: land. Our guest is the Economist’s Wall Street Editor Mike Bird. Mike is the author of a newly released book The Land Trap: A New History of the World’s Oldest Asset. We discuss the properties that make land unique as an asset and why it serves as collateral for almost two-thirds of all bank loans, making it the backbone of the world’s money supply. Mike explains what the “land trap” means and why China is caught in its grip like no other country. We also discuss the one country in the world that seems to have escaped the trap and whether their lessons can be applied elsewhere. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Mike on X and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening and setup00:00:49 - Disclaimer and show introduction00:01:45 - The premise: land as humanity’s oldest asset00:04:18 - Defining the “land trap” through Hong Kong’s model00:09:01 - Three defining traits: scarcity, immovability, endurance00:18:17 - Why technology can’t replace geography00:23:29 - Land as collateral and the rise of...
26 Nov 1h
SI375: CTAs After the Walls Come Down ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver returns for a conversation that quietly questions the foundations. Is trend following an edge - or just a reward for holding discomfort others can’t? From the role of skew in shaping outcomes to the blind spots in most robustness frameworks, Rob and Niels takes you through the mechanics with uncommon clarity. Listener questions open up the deeper layers: when volatility targeting helps, when it hurts, and why Sharpe Ratios can mislead. They end with a shift that may matter more than it seems: CalPERS moving to a Total Portfolio Approach. Not just a new framework - potentially a new lane for CTAs.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro and welcome to the Systematic Investor Series00:23 - Catching up with Rob and a cold, sunny UK01:35 - Is trend following an edge or a risk premium?03:38 - Overcomplicating edges and the Cliff Asness perspective04:30 - Renaissance’s bad month and how even legends struggle09:25 - Managed futures ETFs, performance narratives, and media framing11:22 - AI, Nvidia and what an “AI bubble” might mean for trends13:10 - Trend barometer, current positioning and where returns come from18:35 - George’s question: robustness testing, overfitting and multiple testing25:45 - How often to re-fit models and when to leave parameters alone27:44 - Frederik’s question: intraday versus end of day for medium term...
22 Nov 1h 17min
UGO08: The Coming Hunger Games for Global Savings ft. David Dredge
Recorded live from the Cboe RMC floor in Munich, Cem Karsan sits down with volatility veteran David Dredge for a deep exploration of what truly drives risk. From the crash of 1987 to today’s era of correlation, Dredge reframes volatility not as fear, but freedom. Through his F1 “brakes” analogy, he reveals why protection enables performance, and how convexity builds resilience in an uncertain world. Together, they trace the arc from structured-product flows to demographics, fiscal repression, and the coming global “Hunger Games” for savings. A masterclass in compounding through uncertainty.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow David on X.Episode TimeStamps: 00:01:29 – Cem introduces David Dredge live from Munich.00:03:28 – Dredge recalls arriving in Asia before the 1987 crash.00:05:06 – The F1 brakes analogy—why protection enables speed.00:07:45 – The “preserve and enhance” portfolio that defied 65/35.00:10:57 – Rethinking 60/40 and the illusion of diversification.00:14:33 – Cem on $500 trillion of correlated assets.00:17:22 – Why covered calls lose to convexity over time.00:19:14 – Misreading 2022: correlation, not equities, was the risk.00:21:20 – When diversification fails, only convexity endures.00:27:13 – Value investing in volatility—buying what others suppress.00:37:48 – Euro...
19 Nov 1h 4min
SI374: When the Data Goes Dark: Trend Following, Turbulence & Total Portfolios ft. Katy Kaminski
What happens when the data goes dark, yet markets barely flinch? In this episode, Niels and Katy unpack the month of October defined by missing economic releases, relentless equity strength and three extraordinary days of Liberation Day turbulence. They explore why price often tells the truest story, how total portfolio thinking could rewrite the role of trend, and why short term strategies faltered while precious metals surged. The conversation then shifts to the coming wave of alternatives in private wealth and the silent risk inside target date funds, asking how managed futures can reshape retirement outcomes when timing paths go wrong.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and catching up from Boston02:00 - Life without economic data and what markets really need04:20 - Price as the only truth and the limits of official data05:45 - CalPERS, total portfolio thinking and what it means for trend08:20 - AI, data centers and the inflation story hiding in electricity10:30 - Inflation regimes, unstable prices and why trend cares about change12:40 - Year to date trend review across equities, metals, FX and bonds15:10 - Why short term traders struggled in a headline driven year20:00 - Picking “the best strategy” and why robustness matters more than Sharpe24:10 - Parameters, speed of response and treating markets differently26:20
15 Nov 59min
GM91: Inside China’s Growth Dilemma ft. George Magnus
China’s ascent tells two stories. One of power, precision, and industrial brilliance - the other of imbalance, aging, and constraint. In this episode, Alan Dunne and George Magnus trace the hidden geometry of that divide. They explore how a nation that builds for the future struggles to sustain its present: an economy split between advanced manufacturing and fading momentum, between the Party’s control and the market’s gravity. From local debt and demographic drag to rare-earth diplomacy and the politics of currency, Magnus sketches China not as a riddle to be solved, but as a system nearing the limits of its own design.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow George on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Opening and disclaimer02:23 – George Magnus on career path and China focus06:56 – Data, distortions, and how to analyze China credibly11:37 – Two-track reality: advanced industry vs. a strained macro base16:56 – Why consumption rebalancing keeps failing22:29 – Stock-market boosts vs. household wealth effects25:45 – China’s “QE by other means”: credit, banks, LGFVs27:40 – Who’s levered? Local governments and off–balance sheet debt29:51 – Japan echoes and key differences33:23 – Trade frictions, rare-earth leverage, and U.S.–China...
12 Nov 1h
SI373: Why Trend Thrives When Inflation Returns ft. Yoav Git
What if markets move not by logic, but by pressure? In this conversation, Alan Dunne and Yoav Git trace the invisible currents behind price formation, namely how a single dollar of inflow can lift valuations fivefold, and why that distortion challenges everything the efficient market promised. From the slow mechanics of supply and demand to the moral hazards of policy and liquidity, the discussion follows money as it reshapes narrative. They revisit research that foresaw inflation’s return, and question why QIS indices so often fade in practice. Beneath it all lies a quiet question: what truly drives the modern market?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00:23 – Opening and agenda for the discussion00:01:05 – Math education in the UK and XTX’s push to fund young talent00:03:39 – Market performance recap for early November00:04:49 – Reflections on volatility and fixed income trading conditions00:05:13 – Introduction to the “Inelastic Markets Hypothesis”00:05:53 – Supply, demand, and elasticity explained in market terms00:10:30 – Instrumental variables and how economists measure elasticity00:14:51 – The debate: if markets clear, how can flows move prices?00:15:44 – Why equities are more inelastic than bonds00:21:04 – Questioning the 5x effect and how...
8 Nov 1h 2min
