Sex Recession: Are young people really having less sex?

Are young people really having less sex? Headlines about a “sex recession” suggest a dramatic decline—but what do the data actually show? In this episode, we trace that claim back to the research behind it—and find a story that’s far more nuanced than the headlines suggest. We examine large national surveys, including the General Social Survey and the National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior, and uncover how small analytical choices can completely change the story. Along the way, we tackle ordinal versus quantitative data, why averages can mislead, how logistic regression reframes the question, and what happens when researchers try to time-travel with statistics. Plus: the surprising role of extreme values, why “eight fewer sexual encounters per year” may not mean what you think, and whether young men and women are really following the same trends.

Statistical topics

• Average vs distribution
• Binary variables
• Effect size vs statistical significance
• Logistic regression
• Measurement / operationalization
• Ordinal variables
• Outliers / extreme values
• Self-reported datagoog
• Social desirability bias
• Variable coding / transformation

Methodological morals

• “You shouldn't use data from people in their 80s to guess what they were doing in their 20s unless your data come with a time machine.”
• “When extreme values drive the average, the average stops describing most people.”

References

• Julian K. Why are young people having so little sex? The Atlantic. December 2018. Accessed April 19, 2026. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/12/the-sex-recession/573949/
• Skwarecki B. Nearly half of Gen Z adults have never had sex: report. Newsweek. January 7, 2025. Accessed April 19, 2026. https://www.newsweek.com/nearly-half-of-gen-z-adults-have-never-had-sexreport-11052178
• Virginity survey. DatingAdvice.com. Accessed April 19, 2026. https://www.datingadvice.com/studies/virginity-survey
• Twenge JM, Sherman RA, Wells BE. Declines in sexual frequency among American adults, 1989-2014. Arch Sex Behav. 2017;46(8):2389-2401.
• Ueda P, Mercer CH, Ghaznavi C, Herbenick D. Trends in frequency of sexual activity and number of sexual partners among adults aged 18 to 44 years in the US, 2000-2018. JAMA Netw Open. 2020;3(6):e203833.
• Herbenick D, Rosenberg M, Golzarri-Arroyo L, et al. Changes in penile-vaginal intercourse frequency and sexual repertoire from 2009 to 2018: findings from the National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior. Arch Sex Behav. 2022;51(3):1419-1433.
• Wellings K, Palmer MJ, Machiyama K, Slaymaker E. Changes in, and factors associated with, frequency of sex in Britain: evidence from three National Surveys of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal). BMJ. 2019;365:l1525. Published 2019 May 7. doi:10.1136/bmj.l1525
• Burghardt J, Beutel ME, Hasenburg A, Schmutzer G, Brähler E. Declining Sexual Activity and Desire in Women: Findings from Representative German Surveys 2005 and 2016. Arch Sex Behav. 2020 Apr;49(3):919-925. doi: 10.1007/s10508-019-01525-9. Epub 2019 Dec 4. Erratum in: Arch Sex Behav. 2020 Apr;49(3):927. doi: 10.1007/s10508-019-01622-9. PMID: 31802290.
• Twenge JM. Possible Reasons US Adults Are Not Having Sex as Much as They Used To. JAMA Netw Open. 2020;3(6):e203889. Published 2020 Jun 1. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.3889

Kristin and Regina’s online courses:

Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding

Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis

Medical Statistics Certificate Program

Writing in the Sciences

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program

Programs that we teach in:

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program

Find us on:

Kristin - LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (04:04) - Fact-Checking the Headlines
• (07:37) - The Twenge Study and the GSS
• (16:02) - The Hill-Shaped Trend
• (19:23) - The Ordinal Variable Problem
• (24:59) - The Married vs. Never-Married Paradox
• (27:42) - Time-Traveling to the 1920s
• (31:38) - The Ueda Study: A Better Approach
• (35:25) - The Two Classrooms
• (42:42) - What Counts as Sex?
• (48:52) - Historical Sex Terms
• (52:35) - The Sexual Repertoire Results
• (55:53) - Why Is This Happening?
• (01:02:12) - Rating the Claim