GM48: Resilient Growth BUT Economic Downturn Ahead ft. Chen Zhao

GM48: Resilient Growth BUT Economic Downturn Ahead ft. Chen Zhao

Chen Zhao, co-founder and Chief Global Strategist at Alpine Macro joins us today to outline why growth has been resilient in 2023 but why he sees deflation and an economic downturn as a rising risk as we move into in 2024. We hear why the best global macro trades are the hardest to hold and why he believes long fixed income is the best trade at the moment. We discuss the long term outlook for growth and inflation in the major economies and hear why Chen is dismissive of the idea that deglobalisation and the greening of the global economy may be inflationary forces going forward. We also discuss investment opportunities in Japan and emerging markets and hear why Chen is concerned about the macro outlook in China but sees value in the local stock market.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Chen on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:13 - Who is Chen Zhao?

06:19 - Why has the economy been so resilient?

11:20 - The typical electoral cycle?

16:44 - The outlook for inflation

19:27 - Concerns about stagflation - valid or not?

26:07 - Rates going back to zero?

28:48 - Achieving high sustained investment growth

31:01 - The effect of moving towards climate friendly production

32:57 - China - a deflationary force

38:38 - Bond yields - any surprises?

39:29 - Concerns about the U.S. debt dynamics?

42:07 - Have yields reached their peak?

42:54 - The situation in Europe

45:20 - Back to the 2010s?

46:36 - A global increase in spending?

47:37 - Concerns from a global risk perspective

51:00 - The Japanese economy

52:35 - The outlook for emerging markets

54:45 - Advice for other traders

55:59 - Thanks for listening

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Episoder(913)

SI368: Valuation Has Left the Room ft. Cem Karsan & Alan Dunne

SI368: Valuation Has Left the Room ft. Cem Karsan & Alan Dunne

Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne to chart a market running on more than just momentum. Beneath the surface: a structural liquidity engine, political incentives aligned with asset reflation, and a surge in ...

4 Okt 20251h 5min

IL42: Redefining Sovereignty in a Borderless Financial System ft. Zoe Liu

IL42: Redefining Sovereignty in a Borderless Financial System ft. Zoe Liu

China’s trade surplus with the US remains stubbornly large, but its appetite for Treasuries is fading. So where are the dollars going, and what does that say about the country’s evolving financial str...

1 Okt 20251h 3min

SI367: Portfolio Design in a Distorted World ft. Andrew Beer

SI367: Portfolio Design in a Distorted World ft. Andrew Beer

Equities are up more than 50% since the April lows, yet the world feels anything but stable. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Andrew Beer examine the widening disconnect between market behav...

27 Sep 20251h 7min

UGO06: Democratizing the Asymmetric Trade ft. Vlad Tenev

UGO06: Democratizing the Asymmetric Trade ft. Vlad Tenev

Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood joins Cem Karsan at the Hood Summit in Las Vegas, for a timely conversation about the shifting edge in markets. From memories of hyperinflation in Bulgaria to unlocking t...

24 Sep 202541min

SI366: The Strategy Didn’t Fail. The Investors Did. ft. Rob Carver

SI366: The Strategy Didn’t Fail. The Investors Did. ft. Rob Carver

Rob Carver is back from summer break for a conversation that moves between past and present through the lens of lived experience. Starting with the anniversary of Lehman’s collapse, Rob and Niels unpa...

20 Sep 20251h 2min

ALO31: What If the Illiquidity Premium Was Never Real? ft. Richard Tomlinson

ALO31: What If the Illiquidity Premium Was Never Real? ft. Richard Tomlinson

Richard Tomlinson joins Alan Dunne for a conversation shaped by experience, not theory. As CIO of LPPI, Richard is responsible for £27 billion in pension assets - but what stands out here is the clari...

17 Sep 20251h 3min

SI365: Design or Luck: Why Trend Following Results Diverge ft. Katy Kaminski

SI365: Design or Luck: Why Trend Following Results Diverge ft. Katy Kaminski

Katy Kaminski returns to explore why results in trend following rarely look alike, even when the rules sound the same. Using fresh research from Man Group and Quantica, she and Niels trace the fingerp...

13 Sep 202555min

GM87: Who Really Sets Policy Now? ft. Anna Wong

GM87: Who Really Sets Policy Now? ft. Anna Wong

Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist at Bloomberg, joins Alan Dunne with a clear-eyed assessment of where policy and politics are headed. As markets bet on cuts and the Fed talks balance, she sees a differ...

10 Sep 20251h 4min

Populært innen Business og økonomi

stopp-verden
lydartikler-fra-aftenposten
dine-penger-pengeradet
rss-penger-polser-og-politikk
e24-podden
rss-borsmorgen-okonominyhetene
livet-pa-veien-med-jan-erik-larssen
finansredaksjonen
utbytte
pengepodden-2
pengesnakk
tid-er-penger-en-podcast-med-peter-warren
rss-sunn-okonomi
morgenkaffen-med-finansavisen
lederpodden
lederskap-nhhs-podkast-om-ledelse
rss-politisk-preik
rss-investering-gjort-enkelt
rss-markedspuls-2
rss-andelige-tanker-med-camillo