How we predict elections

How we predict elections

Scott Bland is POLITICO’s national politics editor and leading all of POLITICO’s 2022 midterm coverage. To do it, he has a team of about 15 reporters around the country following campaigns. Despite the cooling temperatures, this is when people like Bland start to sweat. His job is to ensure readers and listeners aren’t surprised on election night — that POLITICO has considered and reported on all possible outcomes, including the outliers — those black swan scenarios with seemingly low probabilities. Not just the most likely ones, according to conventional wisdom. The specter of 2016 still haunts newsrooms. Bland and Playbook co-author Ryan Lizza dissect how 2016 midterm misses can be applied lessons for reporters covering the 2022 elections. Bland also weighs in on pressing questions like; what are the chances of Democrats winning the House while the Republicans take the Senate? Could all of those allegedly flawed Trump-backed candidates sweep their races? And could Biden be the first President since 2002 to avoid a party defeat in the first-midterm election? Ryan Lizza is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO.Scott Bland is the national politics editor for POLITICO.Afra Abdullah is associate producer for POLITICO audio.Kara Tabor is producer for POLITICO audio.Brook Hayes is senior editor for POLITICO audio.Adam Allington is senior producer for POLITICO audio.Jenny Ament is executive producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Episoder(530)

Where does Fetterman fit among Democrats?

Where does Fetterman fit among Democrats?

Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) sat down with POLITICO's Dasha Burns on "The Conversation" for a wide-ranging discussion covering his stance on immigration and ICE, voter ID, Israel and where he sees hims...

13 Feb 49min

María Corina Machado on her hopes for Venezuela’s future

María Corina Machado on her hopes for Venezuela’s future

Venezuelan politician and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado says that Venezuela could have a new democratic election in less than a year. The Nobel Peace Prize winner joins POLITICO’s Dasha Burns...

6 Feb 59min

GOP Senator Tillis is done mincing words

GOP Senator Tillis is done mincing words

Senator Thom Tillis calls for the resignation of Kristi Noem and Stephen Miller in a forthright interview with Dasha Burns for “The Conversation.” The North Carolina Republican made his comments after...

30 Jan 34min

Scott Bessent: ‘We're reordering the global economy’ | The Conversation

Scott Bessent: ‘We're reordering the global economy’ | The Conversation

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke with POLITICO's Dasha Burns at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in our first episode of 2026. The two spoke just after President Trump's speech tha...

23 Jan 48min

The top 5 interview moments of 2025

The top 5 interview moments of 2025

Happy holidays! "The Conversation" will return with a new season in January 2026. In the meantime, listen to some of the most memorable moments from the show in 2025 — including our interviews with Pr...

26 Des 202519min

Bill Gates on vaccine hesitancy, AI and global health

Bill Gates on vaccine hesitancy, AI and global health

Gates Foundation co-founder Bill Gates joined POLITICO’s Dasha Burns on this week’s episode of The Conversation to discuss his continued support for vaccine philanthropy, the impact of government aid ...

12 Des 202538min

An interview with President Donald Trump

An interview with President Donald Trump

In this special edition of The Conversation, President Donald Trump sits down with POLITICO’s Dasha Burns at the White House to discuss his global influence, especially his involvement in trying to en...

9 Des 202547min

Trump’s tariff czar speaks | Jamieson Greer

Trump’s tariff czar speaks | Jamieson Greer

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is no stranger to President Donald Trump’s tariff-forward trade agenda. Greer served as chief of staff to Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. Trade Representative in T...

5 Des 20251h 10min

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