How we predict elections

How we predict elections

Scott Bland is POLITICO’s national politics editor and leading all of POLITICO’s 2022 midterm coverage. To do it, he has a team of about 15 reporters around the country following campaigns. Despite the cooling temperatures, this is when people like Bland start to sweat. His job is to ensure readers and listeners aren’t surprised on election night — that POLITICO has considered and reported on all possible outcomes, including the outliers — those black swan scenarios with seemingly low probabilities. Not just the most likely ones, according to conventional wisdom. The specter of 2016 still haunts newsrooms. Bland and Playbook co-author Ryan Lizza dissect how 2016 midterm misses can be applied lessons for reporters covering the 2022 elections. Bland also weighs in on pressing questions like; what are the chances of Democrats winning the House while the Republicans take the Senate? Could all of those allegedly flawed Trump-backed candidates sweep their races? And could Biden be the first President since 2002 to avoid a party defeat in the first-midterm election? Ryan Lizza is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO.Scott Bland is the national politics editor for POLITICO.Afra Abdullah is associate producer for POLITICO audio.Kara Tabor is producer for POLITICO audio.Brook Hayes is senior editor for POLITICO audio.Adam Allington is senior producer for POLITICO audio.Jenny Ament is executive producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Episoder(533)

Bill Gates on vaccine hesitancy, AI and global health

Bill Gates on vaccine hesitancy, AI and global health

Gates Foundation co-founder Bill Gates joined POLITICO’s Dasha Burns on this week’s episode of The Conversation to discuss his continued support for vaccine philanthropy, the impact of government aid ...

12 Des 202538min

An interview with President Donald Trump

An interview with President Donald Trump

In this special edition of The Conversation, President Donald Trump sits down with POLITICO’s Dasha Burns at the White House to discuss his global influence, especially his involvement in trying to en...

9 Des 202547min

Trump’s tariff czar speaks | Jamieson Greer

Trump’s tariff czar speaks | Jamieson Greer

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is no stranger to President Donald Trump’s tariff-forward trade agenda. Greer served as chief of staff to Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. Trade Representative in T...

5 Des 20251h 10min

Army Secretary Dan Driscoll on transforming the armed forces

Army Secretary Dan Driscoll on transforming the armed forces

Dan Driscoll made history earlier this year when, at 38, he was sworn in as the youngest Army secretary in U.S. history. And he just made news again this week when he became the highest-level Trump...

21 Nov 202546min

Seth Moulton on the Epstein emails, Venezuela, and the shutdown

Seth Moulton on the Epstein emails, Venezuela, and the shutdown

Rep. Seth Moulton (D–Mass.) is not one to shy away from criticism of his own party. He made waves in the past when he insisted that the Democrats’ approach to dialogue on transgender issues was stifli...

14 Nov 202536min

The Conversation election special 2025: Mikie Sherrill and James Blair

The Conversation election special 2025: Mikie Sherrill and James Blair

New Jersey’s governor-elect Mikie Sherrill and James Blair, the political director for the Trump 2024 Campaign and the RNC, break down the lessons learned from this week’s Democratic sweep  Election ...

7 Nov 202559min

Can Jasmine Crockett teach Democrats how to communicate?

Can Jasmine Crockett teach Democrats how to communicate?

Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) hasn’t been in Congress for very long, but she’s transformed the way that Democrats are communicating with voters and energized her colleagues in the party.  Crockett ...

31 Okt 202554min

Why Sen. Rand Paul feels like GOP ‘whipping boy’

Why Sen. Rand Paul feels like GOP ‘whipping boy’

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is known for being a firebrand when it comes to his conservative, small-government principles. He’s also known for being a longtime supporter of President Donald Trump, despite ...

24 Okt 202545min

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