285 | Nate Silver on Prediction, Risk, and Rationality

285 | Nate Silver on Prediction, Risk, and Rationality

Being rational necessarily involves engagement with probability. Given two possible courses of action, it can be rational to prefer the one that could possibly result in a worse outcome, if there's also a substantial probability for an even better outcome. But one's attitude toward risk -- averse, tolerant, or even seeking -- also matters. Do we work to avoid the worse possible outcome, even if there is potential for enormous reward? Nate Silver has long thought about probability and prediction, from sports to politics to professional poker. In his his new book On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, Silver examines a set of traits characterizing people who welcome risks.

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Blog post with transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2024/08/12/285-nate-silver-on-prediction-risk-and-rationality/

Nate Silver received a B.A. in economics from the University of Chicago. He worked as a baseball analyst, developing the PECOTA statistical system (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm). He later founded the FiveThirtyEight political polling analysis site. His first book, The Signal and the Noise, was awarded the Phi Beta Kappa Society Book Award in Science. He is the co-host (with Maria Konnikova) of the Risky Business podcast.


Episoder(411)

65 | Michael Mann on Why Our Climate Is Changing and How We Know

65 | Michael Mann on Why Our Climate Is Changing and How We Know

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23 Sep 20191h 17min

64 | Ramez Naam on Renewable Energy and an Optimistic Future

64 | Ramez Naam on Renewable Energy and an Optimistic Future

The Earth is heating up, and it's our fault. But human beings are not always complete idiots (occasional contrary evidence notwithstanding), and sometimes we can even be downright clever. Dare we imag...

16 Sep 20191h 16min

63 | Solo -- Finding Gravity Within Quantum Mechanics

63 | Solo -- Finding Gravity Within Quantum Mechanics

I suspect most loyal Mindscape listeners have been exposed to the fact that I've written a new book, Something Deeply Hidden: Quantum Worlds and the Emergence of Spacetime. As I release this episode o...

9 Sep 20191h 50min

62 | Michele Gelfand on Tight and Loose Societies and People

62 | Michele Gelfand on Tight and Loose Societies and People

Physicists study systems that are sufficiently simple that it's possible to find deep unifying principles applicable to all situations. In psychology or sociology that's a lot harder. But as I say at ...

2 Sep 20191h 12min

61 | Quassim Cassam on Intellectual Vices and What to Do About Them

61 | Quassim Cassam on Intellectual Vices and What to Do About Them

All of us have been wrong about things from time to time. But sometimes it was a simple, forgivable mistake, while other times we really should have been correct. Properties that systematically preven...

26 Aug 20191h 10min

60 | Lynne Kelly on Memory Palaces, Ancient and Modern

60 | Lynne Kelly on Memory Palaces, Ancient and Modern

Memory takes different forms. Memories can be encoded in the strength of neural connections in our brains, but there's a sense in which photographs and written records are memories as well. What did p...

19 Aug 20191h 15min

59 | Adam Becker on the Curious History of Quantum Mechanics

59 | Adam Becker on the Curious History of Quantum Mechanics

There are many mysteries surrounding quantum mechanics. To me, the biggest mysteries are why physicists haven't yet agreed on a complete understanding of the theory, and even more why they mostly seem...

12 Aug 20191h 40min

58 | Seth MacFarlane on Using Science Fiction to Explore Humanity

58 | Seth MacFarlane on Using Science Fiction to Explore Humanity

Fiction shines a light on the human condition by putting people into imaginary situations and envisioning what might happen. Science fiction expands this technique by considering situations in the fut...

5 Aug 20191h 12min

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