150 | Simon DeDeo on How Explanations Work and Why They Sometimes Fail

150 | Simon DeDeo on How Explanations Work and Why They Sometimes Fail

You observe a phenomenon, and come up with an explanation for it. That's true for scientists, but also for literally every person. (Why won't my car start? I bet it's out of gas.) But there are literally an infinite number of possible explanations for every phenomenon we observe. How do we invent ones we think are promising, and then decide between them once invented? Simon DeDeo (in collaboration with Zachary Wojtowicz) has proposed a way to connect explanatory values ("simplicity," "fitting the data," etc) to specific mathematical expressions in Bayesian reasoning. We talk about what makes explanations good, and how they can get out of control, leading to conspiracy theories or general crackpottery, from QAnon to flat earthers.

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Simon DeDeo received his Ph.D. in astrophysics from Princeton University. He is currently an Assistant Professor in Social and Decision Sciences at Carnegie Mellon University, and External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute.


Episoder(417)

39 | Malcolm MacIver on Sensing, Consciousness, and Imagination

39 | Malcolm MacIver on Sensing, Consciousness, and Imagination

Consciousness has many aspects, from experience to wakefulness to self-awareness. One aspect is imagination: our minds can conjure up multiple hypothetical futures to help us decide which choices we s...

25 Mar 20191h 19min

38 | Alan Lightman on Transcendence, Science, and a Naturalist's Sense of Meaning

38 | Alan Lightman on Transcendence, Science, and a Naturalist's Sense of Meaning

Let's say, for sake of argument, that you don't believe in God or the supernatural. Is there still a place for talking about transcendence, the sacred, and meaning in life? Some of the above, but not ...

18 Mar 20191h 16min

37 | Edward Watts on the End of the Roman Republic and Lessons for Democracy

37 | Edward Watts on the End of the Roman Republic and Lessons for Democracy

When many of us think "Ancient Rome," we think of the Empire and the Caesars. But the Empire was preceded by the Roman Republic, which flourished for a full five centuries. Why, after such a long and ...

11 Mar 20191h 31min

36 | David Albert on Quantum Measurement and the Problems with Many-Worlds

36 | David Albert on Quantum Measurement and the Problems with Many-Worlds

Quantum mechanics is our best theory of how reality works at a fundamental level, yet physicists still can't agree on what the theory actually says. At the heart of the puzzle is the "measurement prob...

4 Mar 20191h 42min

35 | Jessica Yellin on The Changing Ways We Get Our News

35 | Jessica Yellin on The Changing Ways We Get Our News

Everything we think about the world outside our immediate senses is shaped by information brought to us by other sources. In the case of what's currently happening to the human race, we call that info...

25 Feb 20191h 8min

34 | Paul Bloom on Empathy, Rationality, Morality, and Cruelty

34 | Paul Bloom on Empathy, Rationality, Morality, and Cruelty

Within every person's mind there is on ongoing battle between reason and emotion. It's not always a battle, of course; very often the two can work together. But at other times, our emotions push us to...

18 Feb 20191h 10min

33 | James Ladyman on Reality, Metaphysics, and Complexity

33 | James Ladyman on Reality, Metaphysics, and Complexity

Reality is a tricky thing. Is love real? What about the number 5? This is clearly a job for a philosopher, and James Ladyman is one of the world's acknowledged experts. He and his collaborators have b...

11 Feb 20191h 7min

32 | Naomi Oreskes on Climate Change and the Distortion of Scientific Facts

32 | Naomi Oreskes on Climate Change and the Distortion of Scientific Facts

Our climate is in the midst of dramatic changes, driven largely by human activity, with potentially enormous consequences for humanity and other species. That's why science tells us, anyway. But there...

4 Feb 20191h 10min

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