150 | Simon DeDeo on How Explanations Work and Why They Sometimes Fail

150 | Simon DeDeo on How Explanations Work and Why They Sometimes Fail

You observe a phenomenon, and come up with an explanation for it. That's true for scientists, but also for literally every person. (Why won't my car start? I bet it's out of gas.) But there are literally an infinite number of possible explanations for every phenomenon we observe. How do we invent ones we think are promising, and then decide between them once invented? Simon DeDeo (in collaboration with Zachary Wojtowicz) has proposed a way to connect explanatory values ("simplicity," "fitting the data," etc) to specific mathematical expressions in Bayesian reasoning. We talk about what makes explanations good, and how they can get out of control, leading to conspiracy theories or general crackpottery, from QAnon to flat earthers.

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Simon DeDeo received his Ph.D. in astrophysics from Princeton University. He is currently an Assistant Professor in Social and Decision Sciences at Carnegie Mellon University, and External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute.


Episoder(417)

298 | Jeff Lichtman on the Wiring Diagram of the Brain

298 | Jeff Lichtman on the Wiring Diagram of the Brain

The number of neurons in the human brain is comparable to the number of stars in the Milky Way galaxy. Unlike the stars, however, in the case of neurons the real action is in how they are directly con...

9 Des 20241h 9min

AMA | December 2024

AMA | December 2024

Welcome to the December 2024 Ask Me Anything episode of Mindscape! These monthly excursions are funded by Patreon supporters (who are also the ones asking the questions). We take questions asked by Pa...

2 Des 20243h 55min

297 | Emily Wilson on Homer, Poetry, and Translation

297 | Emily Wilson on Homer, Poetry, and Translation

Not too long ago, Brad Pitt and Eric Bana starred in a (loose) adaptation of Homer's epic poem The Iliad; next month, Ralph Fiennes and Juliette Binoche will headline a film based on The Odyssey. Give...

25 Nov 20241h 15min

296 | Brandon Ogbunu on Fitness Seascapes and the Course of Evolution

296 | Brandon Ogbunu on Fitness Seascapes and the Course of Evolution

Biological evolution via natural selection is a simple idea that becomes enormously complicated in its realization. Populations of organisms are driven toward increased "fitness," a measure of how suc...

18 Nov 20241h 15min

295 | Solo: Emergence and Layers of Reality

295 | Solo: Emergence and Layers of Reality

Emergence is a centrally important concept in science and philosophy. Indeed, the existence of higher-level emergent properties helps render the world intelligible to us -- we can sensibly understand ...

11 Nov 20241h 35min

AMA | November 2024

AMA | November 2024

Welcome to the November 2024 Ask Me Anything episode of Mindscape! These monthly excursions are funded by Patreon supporters (who are also the ones asking the questions). We take questions asked by Pa...

4 Nov 20243h 50min

294 | Addy Pross on Dynamics, Stability, and Life

294 | Addy Pross on Dynamics, Stability, and Life

Erwin Schrödinger said that the important characteristic of life is that it "goes on doing something... for a much longer period than we would expect an inanimate piece of matter to keep going under s...

28 Okt 20241h 11min

293 | Doyne Farmer on Chaos, Crashes, and Economic Complexity

293 | Doyne Farmer on Chaos, Crashes, and Economic Complexity

A large economy is one of the best examples we have of complex dynamics. There are multiple components arranged in complicated overlapping hierarchies, out-of-equilibrium dynamics, nonlinear coupling ...

21 Okt 20241h 11min

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