Yellowstone’s Super Volcano Eruption Forecast

NOAA Email Chaos, Weather Funding Cuts & Stopping Science Date: Jan 30-31st 2025A newly implemented, centralized email system for federal employees, spearheaded by the Trump administration, experienced a significant security breach on or around January 30, 2025. This breach allowed external actors to send abusive and inappropriate messages to approximately 13,000 employees at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This incident exposed serious vulnerabilities within the new system, raising concerns about its security, management, and the broader implications for federal communications. Furthermore, it highlighted controversial changes at the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), which was reportedly responsible for the system’s implementation.Key Themes and Findings:System Vulnerability and Inadequate Security:The new email system, designed to reach all 2.3 million federal employees from a single address, was "cobbled together" rapidly, lacking basic security measures or screening protocols. As one NOAA employee stated, “Goes to show you how fast this [new comms system] was cobbled together – no security or screening on this address.”Abusive and Inappropriate Content:The 13,000 NOAA employees received a barrage of offensive emails, including:An email with the subject "Resign," containing the message: "Aren’t you tired of working for a complete c*nt?”An “Important Weather Alert” about a “99% chance of shit showers” over the next four years.Crude and inflammatory messages critical of President Donald Trump and Elon Musk.Spam subscription confirmation for "Scientology Today."Links to a personal newsletter from journalist Ken Klippenstein.These messages were described as “extremely offensive,” and “vulgar.”Controversial Changes at OPM:The email system was implemented by a new team at the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), which reportedly replaced experienced staff with "lackeys from his previous ventures." This reportedly included young, inexperienced individuals from Elon Musk's previous ventures (e.g. xAI, Neuralink, and Peter Thiel’s firms).The OPM’s former Chief Information Officer, Melvin Brown II, was reportedly fired for refusing to implement the new email system.The new email system is reportedly part of a wider plan for the Trump administration to gather information on government employees and implement a “hostile takeover” of the OPM.The OPM's new system is the subject of a class-action lawsuit alleging violations of Bush-era cyber security standards.Immediate Response and Internal Review:NOAA Deputy Director of Communications Scott Smullen apologized to staff and stated, “I will report it.”Vice Admiral Nancy Hann, NOAA's deputy undersecretary for operations, confirmed the “cyber attack,” acknowledging the offensive emails and apparent “phishing attempts”. She stated, “I am sorry that you were subject to these inappropriate messages and want you to know that we take these matters very seriously.”An investigation was launched by NOAA's Office of the Chief Information Officer (OCIO) to prevent future incidents.Quotes from Sources:“Aren’t you tired of working for a complete c*nt?” (Subject line of an email sent to NOAA employees)“Goes to show you how fast this [new comms system] was cobbled together – no security or screening on this address.” (NOAA employee quote)

1 Feb 17min

Climate Change Impacts on Property Taxes and Home InsuranceImpact on Property Taxes:Reassessments: Natural disasters often lead to property reassessments, temporarily lowering the value of damaged properties and thus reducing property taxes. As stated in the Yahoo article, "natural disasters usually spur property reassessments, which temporarily lower the values of damaged properties while simultaneously reducing homeowners’ taxes."Tax Rate Increases: Municipalities might raise property tax rates to offset revenue losses from damaged properties and to fund recovery efforts. The article notes, "In areas that were not affected, tax rates were increased to help offset the loss in revenue,” and, "In Los Angeles, wildfires similarly create more expensive places with taxes to meet increased funding needs."Temporary Reductions & Refunds: Some areas provide temporary property tax reductions or refunds to homeowners who have experienced significant losses due to disasters. California, for instance, offers this relief if losses are at least $10,000 of the current market value of the property.Restoration of Value: Once rebuilt, a property’s pre-damaged value is typically restored.Variations in Laws: Property tax relief measures vary by location, with states like New York enacting specific climate change property tax relief bills. As the Yahoo article states, New York's "Climate Change Property Tax Relief bill... provides assessment relief to property owners within eligible municipalities."Higher Rates in Disaster-Prone Areas: "Living in a disaster-prone area can affect your property taxes in several ways. They may be assessed at a higher rate because of the cost of municipal services that include emergency response, building, and maintaining flood control infrastructure." This highlights an ongoing cost for homeowners in these regions.Impact on Home Insurance:Rising Premiums: Insurance premiums are rising, particularly in high-risk areas like flood zones and regions prone to hurricanes or wildfires. The Yahoo article quotes, "insurance premiums often rise ‘in areas with the highest risk of natural disasters such as hurricanes or wildfires."Policy Non-Renewals: Insurance companies are increasingly dropping coverage for homeowners in disaster-prone areas. The Axios article notes that the share of home insurance policies not renewed in the US ticked up to 1.06% in 2023 from 0.8% in 2018. In Los Angeles County, the increase was more significant, from 0.86% to 1.43%.Reduced Market Appeal: Properties in flood zones may see reduced market appeal unless they have mitigation measures in place and the cost of insurance rises as a result, impacting the entire real estate market.Concerns about Uninsurability: There is growing concern that some areas could become uninsurable entirely. The Axios piece includes the quote from the outgoing Senate Budget Committee chair, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, stating that rising home non-renewals "spells trouble for property values in climate-exposed communities across the country."Climate Risk as Tangible: As noted by Jeremy Porter, "Insurance prices are often the first way that 'climate risk becomes tangible to people'."Insurers' Perspective: It is also noted that an insurer trade group argues non-renewal data is "unsuitable" for understanding climate change impacts, since it doesn't explain the reasoning for company decisions.

31 Jan 22min

Historic Gulf Coast Snowstorm - January 2025I. Historic Gulf Coast Snowstorm:Unprecedented Snowfall: The Gulf Coast experienced a rare and record-breaking snowstorm, with some areas seeing the heaviest snowfall in over a century. Several locations broke all-time records.Quotes:“Historic, city-snarling snowfall – in some cases, possibly the heaviest in more than a century – was spreading on Tuesday into coastal communities from Texas toward Florida.”"The Great Southern Snowstorm of 2025 is one of the most impactful winter storms in history for the Gulf Coast, obliterating Florida’s all-time state snowfall mark and smashing local accumulation records from middle Louisiana to western Florida."Record Snow Totals: Multiple cities experienced record snowfall, with amounts far exceeding forecasts.Examples:Pensacola, FL: 8.9 inches (all-time record, more than double the previous state record). The city of Milton, just northeast, recorded 9.8 inches, which is pending confirmation as the new state record.New Orleans, LA: 8 inches at the airport, breaking the previous record of 2.7 inches, with some areas reporting up to 11.5 inches.Mobile, AL: 7.5 inches (all-time record).Baton Rouge, LA: 6-8 inches (heaviest since 1895).Quote: ““It’s an incredible, incredible event,” said Michael Mugrage, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Mobile, Alabama, where many of the highest snowfall totals from the region were reported. “It puts it in perspective how rare this is.”Key Factors:Polar Vortex: A strong polar vortex stretched unusually far south, bringing extremely cold air from the Arctic to the Gulf Coast.Upper Level Disturbance: An upper-level disturbance moving south from Canada helped generate lift, leading to precipitation.Dry Air: Surprisingly, very dry air aloft helped the formation of snow, as it caused saturation to occur at below-freezing temperatures.Warm Gulf Waters: Unusually warm Gulf waters may have provided a higher-than-expected source of moisture, contributing to increased precipitation amounts, but also a chaotic mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain in some areas.Impacts:Travel Disruption: Roads were closed, including stretches of I-10 in Florida.Quote: “The storm system that brought so much snow also sank thermometers into record-breaking territory across the Deep South.”Record Low Temperatures: The storm also brought record low temperatures to cities in the region, with some locations experiencing the coldest temperatures since the late 19th century.Recreational Activity: Locals were seen using make-shift sleds to enjoy the rare snow.Rarity:The conditions that led to this storm are exceptionally rare in the Gulf Coast region. The chance of a similar event occurring in any given winter is estimated to be around 1%. The event is comparable to the historic storm of 1895.Quote: “With 2025 rivaling only 1895 for the historical high snowdrift on the Gulf Coast, this general kind of event might only have around a 1% of occurring in any given winter."Comparison to Historical Events: While there have been instances of snow in Florida in the past (documented as far back as the 1700s), this event was far more significant and widespread.

27 Jan 17min

Allen Media Group's Weather Strategy and Subsequent ReversalAllen Media Group (AMG), owner of The Weather Channel and numerous local television stations across the United States, initially announced a plan to eliminate nearly all local meteorologist positions at its stations. Viewer and Staff Backlash:Public Outcry: The announcement was met with swift and intense backlash from viewers, who expressed concerns about the loss of local expertise and the impact on severe weather coverage. Viewers described the plan as "greedy," "ridiculous," and "damn cheap."Concerns about Public Safety: Emily Pike, a former meteorologist at WSIL-TV 3, stated, “Local meteorologists are being replaced, which could pose serious risks, especially during severe weather events.” This speaks to a more general fear that "hubbed" weather forecasts would be insufficient during crises.Loss of Local Expertise: Viewers and some media critics argued that local meteorologists have a deeper understanding of local weather patterns, geography, and community needs, making them more effective during severe weather. As one meteorologist noted: “We know the area. We know how to forecast for the area. We know the ins and outs of hyper-local weather.”Impact on Local News and Journalism:Loss of Localism: The decision to remove local meteorologists was seen as a blow to localism in media, removing a key aspect that draws viewers to local stations. One source noted that "cutting local meteorologists 'will reduce viewership and station app use, probably in every Allen market,' not to mention driving away advertisers."Centralization Trend: AMG's actions were part of a broader trend of media consolidation and centralization, with other station groups such as Sinclair, CBS, and Gray Media making similar cost-cutting decisions.Public Service Obligation: The action was seen by some as a dereliction of duty, since "broadcast stations carry an FCC license that requires some responsibility to operate in the public interest."AMG's Reversal and Uncertain Future:Pause on Layoffs: Due to the backlash, AMG has reportedly hit pause on its plan to lay off meteorologists and outsource coverage to The Weather Channel. As one source reports: "Allen Media Group is reportedly reversing its controversial plan to ax local meteorologists and replace them with a Weather Channel feed after facing heated backlash from loyal viewers".Stations Affected (Partial List):WJRT (Flint, MI)WSIL-TV 3 (Carterville, IL)WEVV (Evansville, IN)KWWL (Waterloo, IA)KIMT (Rochester, MN/Mason City, IA)KEZI (Eugene, OR)KDRV/KDKF (Medford, OR)KHSL/KNVN (Chico / Redding, CA)WTHI (Terre Haute, IN)WLFI (West Lafayette, IN)WFFT (Fort Wayne, IN)WAAY (Huntsville, AL)KADN (Lafayette, LA)KITV/KIKU (Honolulu, HI)WAOW (Wausau, WI)WQOW (Eau Claire, WI)WKOW (Madison, WI)WXOW (La Crosse, WI)KVOA (Tucson, AZ)WREX (Rockford, IL)WCOV (Montgomery, AL)

26 Jan 10min

A Detailed Review of Potential Trump-Era ReversalsMeteorology Matters analyzes the key environmental actions taken by the Biden administration, focusing on the potential challenges and ease with which President Trump may attempt to reverse them. Key Themes:Sweeping Scope: Biden's environmental agenda is characterized by its breadth and depth, impacting various sectors and aiming for long-term sustainability. This makes complete dismantling difficult.Legal and Scientific Foundation: Many of Biden's policies are rooted in robust scientific evidence and legal frameworks, making them resistant to arbitrary rollbacks.Economic and Political Considerations: While Trump champions deregulation for economic growth, some of Biden's policies enjoy industry support (like methane regulation) or face international pressure (like EV production).Key Areas of Focus and Potential for Reversal:1. Climate Change and Air PollutionGreenhouse Gas Standards for Vehicles: Reversing these standards could be challenging due to industry investments in EV production to comply with global regulations. Difficulty: MediumGreenhouse Gas Standards for Power Plants: Trump's promise to "terminate" the power plant rule will likely face legal challenges similar to those faced during his first term. Difficulty: MediumLimits on Mercury and Air Toxics from Coal Plants: Reversing strengthened limits will likely be met with lawsuits from civil rights and environmental groups. Difficulty: MediumPhaseout of Climate Super-Pollutants (HFCs): Reversing the HFC phase-down, authorized by a bipartisan bill, would require new legislation from Congress. Difficulty: Difficult2. Drilling and ExtractionLimits on Methane from Drilling Operations: Trump may face pressure from the oil industry, which supports methane regulation, to retain this rule. Difficulty: MediumFee on Methane from Oil and Gas Facilities: Repealing these fees, authorized by the Inflation Reduction Act, would likely require new legislation. Difficulty: DifficultProtections for D1 lands in Alaska: Trump's previous attempts to revoke protections for D1 lands faced hurdles, and reversing this policy could encounter similar challenges. Difficulty: Medium3. Chemical SafetyListing of PFAS under the Superfund law: This designation has already drawn legal challenges from industry groups and could face further legal hurdles if reversed. Difficulty: MediumRemoval of All Lead Pipes: The Safe Drinking Water Act's provisions make weakening existing health protections difficult, potentially leading to legal challenges. Difficulty: MediumComplete Ban on Asbestos: Trump's previous failures to regulate asbestos were deemed "arbitrary and capricious" by a federal court, making a reversal difficult. Difficulty: Medium4. ConservationExpansion of National Monuments: Trump's previous downsizing of national monuments sparked legal battles. Repealing expansions faces similar resistance and potential Supreme Court involvement. Difficulty: EasyProtection of Boundary Waters: Reversing the mining ban would face opposition from conservationists and potentially impact local water quality, leading to legal challenges. Difficulty: Medium (Rating by Washington Post)

20 Jan 17min

Home Insurance Crisis in the United StatesDate: January 19, 2025Subject: Overview of the Home Insurance Crisis in the US, with a Focus on California and FloridaSummary: Meteorology Matters analyzes the escalating home insurance crisis in the US, particularly in California and Florida. The analysis highlights key themes including:Rising Insurance Costs: Home insurance premiums are increasing at rates surpassing inflation, driven by factors like reinsurance costs, litigation expenses, and the escalating frequency and severity of climate change-related disasters.Insurance Nonrenewals and Cancellations: Insurers are increasingly dropping policies in high-risk areas, forcing homeowners to seek expensive alternatives or forgo coverage altogether.Government Intervention: States like California and Florida are grappling with legislative and regulatory solutions to address the crisis, while the federal government's attempts to gather data and intervene have faced political pushback.Consumer Impact: The crisis is leaving homeowners financially vulnerable, unable to afford coverage, and struggling to rebuild after disasters.Key Themes and Facts:1. Rising Insurance Costs Outpacing Inflation:Inflation and Reinsurance Costs: Insurance industry leaders cite inflation and skyrocketing reinsurance costs as primary drivers of premium increases. Brian Murphy of Brightway Insurance states, “These catastrophic losses, coupled with the insolvency of 15 insurance companies in Florida over the past 15 years, have driven up reinsurance costs, which are then passed down to policyholders." (Source: Insurance cost increases in Florida have outpaced inflation. We asked experts why.)Litigation Expenses: Although recent reforms aimed at curbing lawsuits against insurers have shown some impact, litigation remains a significant cost driver. (Source: Insurance cost increases in Florida have outpaced inflation. We asked experts why.)2. Nonrenewals and Cancellations Leaving Homeowners Vulnerable:Increased Nonrenewals: Nonrenewal notices have surged by almost 30% nationwide from 2018 to 2022, reaching over 620,000 annually. (Source: More homeowners lose insurance in areas hard-hit by climate disasters - The Wash.pdf)Climate Change Impact: Insurers are increasingly withdrawing from high-risk areas exposed to hurricanes, wildfires, and severe storms, forcing homeowners to turn to expensive "insurers of last resort" or forgo coverage. (Source: They lost their insurance. Then their homes burned | CNN Business.pdf)California Wildfires: State Farm, California's largest insurer, nonrenewed thousands of policies in high-risk areas, including many that were subsequently destroyed in the recent LA wildfires. This sparked public outrage and calls for increased government oversight. (Source: State Farm makes major policy change amid LA fires outrage.pdf)

19 Jan 23min

Cats of Mount Washington ObservatoryOverview: Meteorology Matters examines the history of resident cats at the Mount Washington Observatory. We highlight the roles these cats have played, their individual personalities, and the public interest they have garnered.Key Themes:Rodent Control & Companionship: Cats were initially introduced to the observatory in the 1930s for practical purposes. They served as mousers, keeping the rodent population in check, and also provided companionship to the weather observers stationed on the often-isolated mountaintop.Mascots & Public Interest: Over time, the summit cats have transcended their practical roles and become beloved mascots for the Mount Washington Observatory. They are featured in gift shop merchandise, news articles, and social media posts, attracting considerable public attention and affection.Individual Personalities: Each cat has possessed a unique personality that has endeared them to the staff and the public. From Inga's hunting prowess and Nin's placid nature to Marty's curiosity and Jasper's dog-like behavior, these feline personalities have become part of the observatory's lore.Notable Cats & Facts:Early Cats (1930s): The tradition began with Tikky and grew to include a cohort of eight felines by 1934.Inga (1980s-1999): A calico who gained significant fame, appearing on various merchandise. Known for her skill in catching mice and surviving harsh weather conditions."The picture of Inga outside during a winter storm is seen on a poster and postcard in the Observatory’s gift shop." - Jillian Reynolds, Summit Intern (2025)Jasper (1980s-1999): An orange tabby with a peculiar, dog-like personality. Ate unusual things, preferred to be held upside down, and was described as “garbage guts” due to his indiscriminate eating habits."He stood on his hind legs to beg for treats (and dog bones), refused to use a litter box, was taught to lie down and roll over, and ate everything from dead mice to asparagus." - Emily Tunkel, Summer Intern (2018)Nin (1995-2009): A stray cat who became known for his calm demeanor and love for watching ravens and playing Scrabble with the observers.Marty (2008-2020): Won an election held by the Conway Area Humane Society to become the next summit cat. Known for his curiosity and exploration of the observatory.Nimbus (2021-Present): A gray shorthair chosen for his friendly and inquisitive nature. Introduced to the summit gradually, he is expected to eventually have free reign of the facility and mountaintop."Nimbus fit the bill, she said: he's friendly and inquisitive, and he loves to explore and interact with the staff." - Rebecca Scholand, Summit Operations Manager (2021)Conclusion:The tradition of keeping cats at the Mount Washington Observatory is a long-standing one, intertwining practical needs with emotional connections and public interest. These cats have become an integral part of the observatory's history and identity, serving as ambassadors for this unique and challenging environment. The stories and personalities of these cats continue to entertain and fascinate, reflecting the human need for companionship and the enduring appeal of animals in even the most extreme settings

18 Jan 22min

Trump Administration's Environmental StancesSubject: Review of key statements and controversies surrounding the Trump administration's nominees for Energy Secretary (Chris Wright) and EPA Administrator (Lee Zeldin) regarding climate change and environmental policies.Date: January 16, 2025Main Themes:Disputing the link between climate change and wildfires: Both nominees have downplayed or outright denied the scientific consensus that climate change is contributing to the increasing frequency and severity of wildfires.Emphasis on economic growth over environmental protection: Both nominees prioritize economic growth and energy independence, suggesting that environmental regulations may hinder these goals.Questioning the EPA's role in regulating carbon dioxide emissions: Zeldin asserts that the EPA is authorized, but not obligated, to regulate CO2 emissions, potentially signaling a shift away from climate-focused policies.Important Ideas/Facts:Chris Wright (Energy Secretary Nominee):Rejects link between climate change and wildfires: During his confirmation hearing, Wright stood by his past comments calling wildfire concerns "hype" and dismissing their connection to climate policies. This stance contradicts scientific studies demonstrating the impact of climate change on wildfire frequency and intensity.Quote: "The hype over wildfires is just hype to justify [harmful climate policies]." - Wright on LinkedIn, 2023 (source: The Washington Post)Acknowledges climate change but downplays its severity: While acknowledging that climate change is real, Wright has argued that it is not a crisis and has even suggested that a warmer Earth has reduced deaths from cold weather.Quote: “There isn’t dirty energy or clean energy”. Rather, he said, there are different sources of energy with different tradeoffs. - Wright during confirmation hearing (source: The Guardian)Focus on expanding fossil fuel production: Wright has consistently advocated for expanded fossil fuel production, a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.Lee Zeldin (EPA Administrator Nominee):Acknowledges climate change but questions regulatory obligation: Zeldin believes climate change is a real threat, but asserts that the EPA is not obligated to regulate CO2 emissions, despite having the authority to do so.Quote: "I believe that climate change is real," [but] ... the agency he is poised to oversee is just authorized, not required, to regulate carbon dioxide emissions. - Zeldin during confirmation hearing (source: Reuters)Prioritizes economic growth and energy independence: Zeldin emphasizes the importance of economic growth and energy independence, suggesting these goals should be prioritized over environmental protection.Quote: "We can, and we must, protect our precious environment without suffocating the economy." - Zeldin during confirmation hearing (source: Reuters)History of opposing environmental legislation: Zeldin's voting record in Congress reflects a pattern of opposition to environmental legislation, including measures to address climate change and pollution.

17 Jan 18min