Yellowstone’s Super Volcano Eruption Forecast

Yellowstone’s Super Volcano Eruption Forecast

Yellowstone's Volcanic Future: Insights from Recent Research

Meteorology Matters reviews research concerning volcanic activity at Yellowstone National Park. The sources provide insights into the likelihood of future eruptions, the structure of the magma system beneath the park, and the potential shift in volcanic activity.

Key Findings:

  • Yellowstone is not "overdue" for an eruption. Despite past supereruptions, volcanoes don't operate on predictable schedules. (Source: USGS)
  • The magma chamber under Yellowstone is largely solid. Only 5-15% is molten, raising questions about the feasibility of a large-scale eruption. (Source: USGS)
  • New research using magnetotellurics reveals a different picture of the magma system. Instead of one large reservoir, there are multiple, segregated pockets of magma with low melt percentages. (Source: Fox Weather & The Washington Post)
  • This finding suggests that eruptions are unlikely in the foreseeable future, particularly in the northeastern region. (Source: Fox Weather)
  • The research pinpoints the heat source driving Yellowstone's volcanic activity in the northeast region. This area also houses the largest magma storage, suggesting future eruptions may be concentrated there. (Source: Fox Weather)
  • The study confirms a shift in volcanic activity towards the northeast. This aligns with the movement of the North American plate over the Yellowstone hotspot. (Source: The Washington Post)
  • Scientists emphasize that future eruptions are likely thousands of years away. The park's volcanic activity is dynamic but does not pose an immediate threat. (Source: The Washington Post)

Important Considerations:

  • Supereruptions are rare events. Most volcanic systems that experience them do not have multiple occurrences. (Source: USGS)
  • Even if Yellowstone erupts again, it may be a smaller, non-explosive event. The most recent eruption 70,000 years ago was a lava flow. (Source: USGS)
  • Continued monitoring of Yellowstone is crucial. Seismographs and GPS help scientists understand stress changes in the Earth's crust, which could trigger earthquakes and influence volcanic activity. (Source: USGS)

Quotes:

  • "When we used magnetotellurics, we were able to see, actually, there’s not a lot there… There are these segregated regions where magma is stored across Yellowstone, instead of having one sort of large reservoir." - Ninfa Bennington, lead author of the study (Source: Fox Weather)
  • "Nowhere in Yellowstone do we have regions that are capable of eruption. It has a lot of magma, but the magma is not connected enough." - Ninfa Bennington (Source: The Washington Post)
  • "By no means is Yellowstone 'due for an eruption.' There will be eruptions, but it will probably be thousands of years before we can expect an eruption." - Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, associate professor of earth and planetary sciences (Source: The Washington Post)

Conclusion:

Recent research provides a more nuanced understanding of Yellowstone's volcanic system. While the potential for future eruptions remains, the current scientific consensus suggests that such events are unlikely in the near term. Continued monitoring and research are essential to further refine our understanding of Yellowstone's volcanic activity and its potential impacts.

Episoder(208)

Hurricane Milton - Storm Surge Height Forecast Scenarios

Hurricane Milton - Storm Surge Height Forecast Scenarios

SummaryHurricane Milton is headed for the state of Florida and we dissect the analysis of the potential storm surge impact, drawing comparisons to Hurricane Michael's landfall in 2018. Counterclockwise rotation of hurricanes, the storm surge is significantly lower on the left side of the eye (north side in Milton's case). Two scenarios are presented, one with Milton making landfall north of the Skyway Bridge and the other with Milton making landfall south. Meteorologist Bryan Bennett, who came up with this analysis gives us surge heights for various locations under both scenarios, highlighting the significant difference in surge flooding depending on Milton's landfall location. Including places like Sanibel Island, Ana Maria Island, downtown Tampa, St. Petersburg, Madeira Beach, Tarpon Springs and New Port Richey.Ultimately, please remember the importance of staying informed by following official forecasts and evacuation orders.

8 Okt 202410min

Hurricane Milton: Tampa Bay & Florida West Coast Flood Scenarios

Hurricane Milton: Tampa Bay & Florida West Coast Flood Scenarios

Hurricane Milton, a rapidly intensified to a Category 5 hurricane yesterday, and is expected to make landfall on Florida's west coast late Wednesday/Early Thursday. The storm is predicted to cause significant storm surge, especially in the Tampa Bay area, with potential for flooding up to 15 feet above normal. The storm's forecast increase in size will also produce widespread strong winds and heavy rainfall, increasing the risk of flash flooding. The local emergency managers have issued evacuation orders for areas in the path of the storm, and it is imperative that residents heed these warnings and prepare for extended power outages.

8 Okt 20246min

Flooding: How to Prepare, What to Expect, What to Do

Flooding: How to Prepare, What to Expect, What to Do

With Hurricane Milton, approaching Florida here are flood specific tips to help you out. Partial list at the bottom…A survivor of Hurricane Ian's flooding shares valuable advice based on their experience. They emphasize proactive measures to prepare for potential flooding, such as raising valuables off the floor, securing important documents, and preparing essential items like flashlights, medication, and pet supplies. The source also provides post-flood guidance, focusing on prioritizing safety, organizing debris, and meticulously documenting repair expenses. It stresses financial responsibility by recommending against insurance fraud and encourages seeking assistance from various resources like FEMA, the Red Cross, and county programs. The author highlights the importance of remaining calm, acknowledging that while the situation may feel overwhelming, it is possible to rebuild and overcome the adversity.Facebook Post from Brandy Barber:As a Florida Shores Hurricane Ian Flood Victim— here are some things I’d wished I’d thought of/things we did. (Since you cant control it, youll want to have your head in the game. This isn’t to cause fear, it’s to equip people because we’ve been through it and wish we would’ve known. Hindsight is always 20/20). If you think your home could flood with recent happenings/track record, then maybe pay attention. We got through it and if you do flood, I promise you will too. These things may seem extreme but trust me, at the first site of our yard flooding, and this is what we are doing: 🌀 BEFORE YOU FLOOD/PREVENTIVE MEASURES: 🌀•have your volume on/download apps. A flash flood warning woke me up and saved me from losing way more than I could’ve. •Documents, books, things in low drawers, pictures or basically anything on lower ground, move to countertops. Know exactly where your important info is in case you need it. That includes for your car, we lost 3 of those too. •We lost all electric appliances because they were in our low kitchen cabinets. Move them up higher (food processor, crockpot, griddles). •dry food- get out of lower cabinets. You’re going to be hungry while you wait for rescue. We had hot cheese and grapes to eat. Don’t be us. •We kept our bandaids/sanitary stuff/meds/blow dryers in a low bathroom cabinet and lost it all. Anything you think you might need that isn’t in a bottle, move it up the night before. •Turn your breaker off as soon as you start flooding even if your power is already out because you won’t be thinking of it, trust me. Somehow my magical husband did, but I sure didn’t. This can hurt you or a lineman when it back feeds. •watch out for extension cords from your generator into the home with standing water. Seems silly to tell you that, but your brain is going to be in shock already, so let’s not shock the rest of you. •If you have gas cans ready for your generator, don’t set them on the ground!!! Ours floated away and created toxic water all around us and in our house. •have a bucket of some sort to keep anything electronic dry for immediate use. (Phone/flash lights). •Get your pet food off of the ground. Have leashes on the table next to your food to get ready to leave on a moment’s notice •Know where your paddle board/kayak is if you have one and be ready to use it. It saved us •if your dog crates are on the floor, put them on your kitchen table or anywhere off the ground. We did this trudging through two feet of water and it wasn’t fun… Search for this Post on Facebook as text is limited here… I’ve reshared on my personal Facebook Page https://www.facebook.com/pontiac51

8 Okt 20248min

Milton Now a Major Hurricane - Storm Surge to 12’ - Evacuations Begin Today

Milton Now a Major Hurricane - Storm Surge to 12’ - Evacuations Begin Today

Florida officials urge residents to take necessary precautions, such as checking their evacuation zones, preparing disaster supply kits, and finding a safe place to stay. They also emphasize the importance of leaving early to avoid traffic congestion and delays, noting that it may also take several days to return home after the storm passes. Milton is now a category three major hurricane with winds of 120 mph and is still expected to continue strengthening. Although unfavorable upper level winds may cause the storm to weaken prior to landfall, 12 foot storm surge is still a deadly concern. Remember to run from the water and hide from the wind… you don’t have to evacuate far if you are in an evacuation zone as it’s best to stay as close to home as possible. Check out the state of Florida’s emergency management website for more information on preparation and linking you up to your counties evacuation zone maps. Of course you can always search for your county evacuation zone map directly. https://www.floridadisaster.org/

7 Okt 202412min

Hurricane Milton - 145 MPH Winds Forecast - Florida Peninsula on Alert

Hurricane Milton - 145 MPH Winds Forecast - Florida Peninsula on Alert

Hurricane Milton, currently over the Gulf of Mexico, is intensifying and projected to become a major hurricane. The hurricane is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of Florida, potentially bringing life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall. Residents in the Florida Peninsula are advised to monitor the storm's progress and follow the guidance of local officials.

7 Okt 202410min

Hurricane Hunters Say Milton is Rapidly Intensifying as We Look at Different Landfall Scenarios

Hurricane Hunters Say Milton is Rapidly Intensifying as We Look at Different Landfall Scenarios

Sunday afternoon update on Hurricane Milton, which is rapidly intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico. Details on the hurricane's current location, movement, and projected path, indicating that it is expected to become a major hurricane and approach the west coast of Florida by midweek. Hazards, including storm surge and heavy rainfall which could lead to flooding, and dangerous surf conditions along the Gulf Coast are a concern especially near and south of the landfall location. Points to the north of the center of circulation could see stronger wins and rain then on the so-called “dirty side“ which would normally be on the southside interaction with a jet streak the storm could be a little bit different. We looked at scenarios with, the potential for one north of Tampa Bay and a scenario for south of Tampa Bay.

6 Okt 202412min

Hurricane Evacuation & Preparedness Tips, Even for Your  EV

Hurricane Evacuation & Preparedness Tips, Even for Your EV

As Milton heads toward Florida, here’s some guidance on preparing for the storm, particularly focusing on the potential dangers associated with lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles. Understanding and mitigating the risks of battery fires, especially when vehicles are damaged by floodwaters is important to your safety. Will give you some tips on food storage, water conservation, and securing important documents. We highlight the importance of having a plan for evacuating, staying safe, and ensuring access to essential services in the aftermath of a storm.

6 Okt 202412min

Rapid Intensification - Milton Forecast to be a Category 3 Hurricane

Rapid Intensification - Milton Forecast to be a Category 3 Hurricane

Tropical Storm Milton is strengthening rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to become a major hurricane by the middle of the week. The storm is expected to make landfall on the west coast of Florida, bringing the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds. Heavy rainfall is also expected to affect portions of Florida, leading to the risk of flooding. The storm's exact track and intensity remain uncertain, but there is growing concern about the potential for significant impacts on the Florida Peninsula.

6 Okt 202410min

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