Statistical Mistakes and the Challenger Disaster

Statistical Mistakes and the Challenger Disaster

After the Challenger exploded in 1986, killing all 7 astronauts aboard, an investigation into the cause was immediately launched. In the cold temperatures the night before the launch, the o-rings that seal off the fuel tanks from the rocket boosters became inflexible, so they did not seal properly, which led to the fuel tank explosion. NASA knew that there could be o-ring problems, but performed the analysis of their data incorrectly and ended up massively underestimating the risk associated with the cold temperatures. In this episode, we'll unpack the mistakes they made. We'll talk about how they excluded data points that they thought were irrelevant but which actually were critical to recognizing a fatal pattern.

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Episoder(323)

Constitutional AI

Constitutional AI

How do you teach a model the difference between helpful and harmful when it has no inherent sense of either? This episode dives into Constitutional AI, Anthropic's framework for training AI systems to...

7 Sep 31min

A Data-Driven Reality Check on AI in Business (Interview with Tom Davenport, Babson College)

A Data-Driven Reality Check on AI in Business (Interview with Tom Davenport, Babson College)

Tom Davenport — the man who called data science "the sexiest job of the 21st century" — is back with a reality check on AI. As one of the most seasoned observers of how businesses actually adopt trans...

31 Aug 40min

Understanding AI Text Watermarking

Understanding AI Text Watermarking

Anthropic just announced they're baking invisible watermarks directly into Claude's generated text — and while everyone else was busy having opinions about it, we were busy asking the more interesting...

24 Aug 29min

Better Know a Benchmark: Humanity's Last Exam

Better Know a Benchmark: Humanity's Last Exam

Humanity's Last Exam was designed with a bold premise: questions that human experts can answer, but AI models can't. Originally dubbed "Humanity's Last Stand," this benchmark is a massive academic col...

17 Aug 23min

A Scientific Deep Dive into Overconfident LLMs: Interview with Kaitlyn Zhou (Cornell)

A Scientific Deep Dive into Overconfident LLMs: Interview with Kaitlyn Zhou (Cornell)

When a language model tells you it's absolutely certain, is it actually more likely to be right? Kaitlyn Zhou's research says: not necessarily — sometimes confident phrasing correlates with *worse* ac...

10 Aug 33min

Reasoning Models: When LLMs Went Beyond Fancy Autocomplete

Reasoning Models: When LLMs Went Beyond Fancy Autocomplete

Reasoning models don't just answer your question — they *think out loud* first. In this episode we dig into the class of AI models that generate intermediate chains of thought before arriving at a fin...

3 Aug 25min

Distillation, or, How to Steal a Model

Distillation, or, How to Steal a Model

This week we’re covering model distillation: the technique of using a large "teacher" model's outputs to train a smaller, cheaper "student" model that mimics it. They cover the two big reasons labs do...

27 Jul 23min

Invisible LLM Failures and AI Fluency with Chris Potts (Stanford)

Invisible LLM Failures and AI Fluency with Chris Potts (Stanford)

What happens when a Stanford linguistics professor turns his attention to AI chatbots — and the surprisingly invisible ways humans misunderstand them? Chris Potts joins the show to unpack the hidden f...

20 Jul 41min

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