Will AI fundamentally alter how wars are initiated, fought and concluded?

Will AI fundamentally alter how wars are initiated, fought and concluded?

In the debate on how artificial intelligence (AI) will impact military strategy and decision-making, a key question is who makes better decisions — humans or machines? Advocates for a better leveraging of artificial intelligence point to heuristics and human error, arguing that new technologies can reduce civilian suffering through more precise targeting and greater legal compliance. The counter argument is that AI-enabled decision-making can be as bad, if not worse, than that done by humans, and that the scope for mistakes creates disproportionate risks. What these debates overlook is that it may not be possible for machines to replicate all dimensions of human decision-making. Moreover, we may not want them to. In this post, Erica Harper, Head of Research and Policy at the Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights, sets out the possible implications of AI-enabled military decision-making as this relates to the initiation of war, the waging of conflict, and peacebuilding. She highlights that while such use of AI may create positive externalities — including in terms of prevention and harm mitigation — the risks are profound. These include the potential for a new era of opportunistic warfare, a mainstreaming of violence desensitization and missed opportunities for peace. Such potential needs to be assessed in terms of the current state of multilateral fragility, and factored into AI policy-making at the regional and international levels.

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Episoder(305)

The humanitarian case for universalizing the Convention on Cluster Munitions

The humanitarian case for universalizing the Convention on Cluster Munitions

Cluster munitions cause harm both at the moment of attack and long after fighting has ended. By scattering submunitions across wide areas, often with high failure rates, they expose civilians to immed...

3 Sep 23min

Before the fighting begins: IHL and the location of military objectives

Before the fighting begins: IHL and the location of military objectives

International humanitarian law (IHL) is primarily associated with the conduct of hostilities and the protection of people during armed conflict. Yet some of the decisions that determine civilian risk ...

27 Aug 11min

Civilian protection has a dependency-chain problem

Civilian protection has a dependency-chain problem

Civilian protection is often assessed by whether a person has been warned, evacuated, registered, sheltered or reached with relief. For many persons with disabilities, each measure depends on a wider ...

20 Aug 21min

The machines must not choose who dies: a humanitarian case for disarming AI

The machines must not choose who dies: a humanitarian case for disarming AI

As states race to develop autonomous weapons systems, the effort to agree binding international rules on machine decisions over life and death has reached a critical moment. In this post, Eberechukwu...

13 Aug 18min

Memorializing IHL violations in the age of AI: opportunities and risks for transitional justice

Memorializing IHL violations in the age of AI: opportunities and risks for transitional justice

Memorialization, one of the five pillars of transitional justice, plays a vital role in preserving the memory of international humanitarian law (IHL) violations and gross human rights violations, supp...

23 Jul 17min

“A number that learned how not to scream”: the case for community-led metrics on protection

“A number that learned how not to scream”: the case for community-led metrics on protection

The international humanitarian system has built a sophisticated architecture for the protection of civilians, namely political resolutions, cluster coordination mechanisms, reporting frameworks, and a...

7 Jul 15min

Amplifying Pacific voices: the region’s crucial role in advancing IHL

Amplifying Pacific voices: the region’s crucial role in advancing IHL

Pacific Island states have long demonstrated leadership in promoting peace, disarmament, and humanitarian values. From traditional customs that reflect principles contained in contemporary internation...

2 Jul 15min

The shelter that shone in the distance | Written and Performed by Mamuch Bey

The shelter that shone in the distance | Written and Performed by Mamuch Bey

For the world's more than 120 million forcibly displaced people, the idea of refuge is not an abstraction – it is a horizon, an act of imagination, and sometimes the only thing that keeps hope alive. ...

18 Jun 4min

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