2025 Hurricane Season Forecast

Meteorology Matters presents an analytical framework for standardizing tropical cyclone wind characteristics (mean wind speed, turbulence intensity, integral scale, gust factor, and peak factor) from various measurement conditions to a common reference. This framework uses equilibrium boundary-layer theory and is applied to data from seven tropical cyclones (four typhoons, three hurricanes), comparing results to existing standards (ASCE 7-10 and AIJ-RLB-2004). We continue to. examine gust factor variations based on coastal tower measurements during three landfalling typhoons. We explore the relationships between gust factor and turbulence intensity, height, wind speed, and direction, finding that gust factors are smaller than those in national codes and influenced significantly by shoreline confinement on sea wave development.

29 Nov 202410min

Meteorology Matters discusses Thanksgiving week weather forecasts across the U.S., predicting potential travel disruptions. CBS News reports on severe storms impacting the Pacific Northwest and California, with ensuing power outages and fatalities, while also forecasting rain and snow in the East impacting Thanksgiving travel. Weather.com provides a more detailed, day-by-day forecast, highlighting potential travel issues due to snow in mountainous regions and lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes area, along with rain and thunderstorms in other parts of the country. The overall message is one of caution and preparedness for holiday travel.

28 Nov 202413min

Meteorology Matters provides details onthe Disaster Unemployment Assistance (DUA) and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) aid available to Florida residents affected by Hurricanes Helene and Milton. We explain how to apply for FEMA assistance and appeal denials, highlighting challenges faced by applicants. We also focus on DUA application procedures, deadlines, and eligibility requirements for individuals whose employment was impacted by the hurricanes. We go over supplemental information on DUA, including eligibility criteria, application methods, and appeal processes, emphasizing the importance of meeting deadlines and providing necessary documentation. We aim to inform and guide individuals seeking aid after the hurricanes before time runs out!

25 Nov 202416min

People express concern over the potential impact of a second Trump presidency on US science policy. They highlight anxieties regarding potential budget cuts to scientific research, increased focus on research security potentially hindering international collaboration, and a diminished respect for scientific consensus in policy decisions, particularly concerning climate change and public health. The appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to a key position is cited as a cause for alarm due to his controversial views on public health. Finally, there are discussions of proactive strategies for the scientific community to engage with the new administration and advocate for continued funding and the preservation of independent scientific agencies.

25 Nov 202416min

Meteorology Matters looks at how Climate change significantly intensified the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Multiple reports, including one from Climate Central and a peer-reviewed study in Environmental Research: Climate, confirm that human-caused ocean warming increased the wind speeds of all eleven hurricanes. This resulted in seven hurricanes being upgraded to higher Saffir-Simpson categories and two tropical storms becoming hurricanes. The increased intensity led to substantial damage and economic losses, with climate change attributed to a significant portion of the damage caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton. A separate analysis by a hurricane expert highlights the unusually active 2024 season, noting record-breaking ocean temperatures and the occurrence of three simultaneous hurricanes in October.

23 Nov 202418min

A potential tropical storm, dubbed Invest 99L, is forming in the Caribbean and has a high chance of developing into Tropical Storm Sara within the next few days.Multiple weather models are forecasting Sara to potentially become a hurricane and threaten Florida's Gulf Coast next week, although the track and intensity of the storm remain uncertain. MeteorologyMatters discusses the rarity of November hurricanes, with only three recorded landfalls in the US since 1850, but warn that warm water temperatures in the Atlantic basin are fueling an unusually active hurricane season.

13 Nov 202417min

Meteorology Matters addresses Tucker Carlson’s bizarre assertion that abortions cause hurricanes, dismissing scientific explanations for their increased frequency and intensity, and instead linking them to a supposed “human sacrifice.” We examine these claims through a scientific lens, presenting evidence that contradicts their religious justifications and highlights their potential harm in influencing public opinion on scientific and social issues. We look back at televangelist Pat Robertson’s claims over the years that he can control the weather and that God is punishing the U.S. for its increasing acceptance of homosexuality, specifically targeting Disney World and abortion supporters.

12 Nov 202420min

Meteorology Matters looks at the potential impact of Donald Trump’s return to the presidency on science and environmental policy. Currently, the Biden administration is trying to solidify its environmental policies, such as those regarding greenhouse gas emissions and vehicle electrification, before Trump takes office. We examine the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s potential return to power and how it might influence scientific research, particularly concerning climate change, vaccine skepticism, and the role of government funding in science. There’s the potential for conflict between Trump’s agenda and the goals of the scientific community.

11 Nov 20248min