2025 Hurricane Season Forecast

2025 Hurricane Season Forecast

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Date: February 24, 2025

Sources:

  • "5 things Bryan Norcross is watching for the 2025 hurricane season" - Fox Weather
  • "New NOAA system ushers in next generation of hurricane modeling, forecasting" - NOAA
  • "After predicting 'hurricane season from hell,' forecaster is back for '25" - Chron.com

Executive Summary:

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is approaching, with the official start on June 1st. Forecasters are closely monitoring several factors that will influence the season's activity. While early predictions suggest a potentially less active season than the disastrous 2024 season, unusually warm Caribbean waters and other unpredictable elements mean coastal communities should remain vigilant. New forecasting technologies, like NOAA's HAFS model, promise improved accuracy in predicting storm intensity and track, offering more lead time for preparedness.

Key Themes and Ideas:

  1. Seasonal Predictions and ENSO:
  • ENSO-Neutral Conditions: Current outlooks suggest a likely ENSO-neutral phase, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña will dominate. Historically, ENSO-neutral years have produced varying levels of hurricane activity. "Forecasters are still analyzing the potential development of an El Niño or La Niña event for the upcoming season, but current outlooks suggest that the year will likely fall within an ENSO-neutral phase, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are expected to dominate."
  • Spring Predictability Barrier: Forecasting ENSO conditions this time of year is difficult due to weak trade winds over the Pacific. "What that means is that this time of year and up into about March and maybe even April, it becomes very difficult and forecasts for whether it's going to be an El Niño or La Niña are much less reliable."
  • WeatherBell's Forecast: After accurately predicting a severe 2024 season, WeatherBell Analytics forecasts a less impactful 2025 season with 15-19 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes. They suggest "fewer impacts" and "no clear landfall signals" unlike last year.
  1. Sea Surface Temperatures:
  • Warm Caribbean Waters: Above-average temperatures in the Caribbean Sea raise concerns about potentially more intense hurricanes if storms enter that region. "The Caribbean is extremely warm. That suggests that if we get a storm, like Beryl, forming in the region, we could see an unusually strong system this year," said Norcross.
  • Gulf and Western Atlantic: Water temperatures in the Gulf and western Atlantic fluctuate but can still provide fuel for developing systems.
  • Cooler Atlantic: WeatherBell forecasters say that cooler conditions in the Atlantic favor a weaker season overall. "The Atlantic is much cooler than last year, and the swath of warmer water is shown to the north. This suggests less Main Development Region activity, but the worry have its share of issues."

Episoder(208)

Florida Expecting Impact from Hurricane Milton with Dangerous Storm Surge and 110 mph Winds

Florida Expecting Impact from Hurricane Milton with Dangerous Storm Surge and 110 mph Winds

Tropical Storm Milton is another rapidly developing tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that is expected to strengthen into Hurricane Milton and make landfall on the West Coast of Florida as a Category 2 hurricane around Wednesday. The forecast emphasizes the potential for significant storm surge and heavy rainfall, urging residents of Central and South Florida to stay informed and prepared. While the exact path and intensity of the storm are uncertain, remember that the effects can be for reaching from the center of the storm at landfall. There's also the increasing likelihood of a dangerous storm surge event along Florida's Gulf coast with some areas to be impacted already having been by hurricane Helene just a short time ago.

5 Okt 202413min

Growing Insurance Failures Take Spotlight After Hurricane Helene

Growing Insurance Failures Take Spotlight After Hurricane Helene

Hurricane Helene is a major disaster that highlights the growing economic risks associated with climate change. While the financial impact of the hurricane is significant, with estimates reaching over $100 billion with long-term implications for communities, businesses, and individuals. Climate change will increasingly lead to "known unknowns" - events that we know will happen but cannot predict their exact timing or location. Adaptation, investing in preventative measures, and the need for governments and companies to take proactive steps to mitigate the financial and social consequences of these events is vital to move forward.Suggested questions

5 Okt 20246min

Hurricane Helene’s Toxic Flood Waters

Hurricane Helene’s Toxic Flood Waters

There’s a hidden danger of toxic chemical releases from industrial facilities during hurricanes. Limited disclosure requirements and insufficient public information about these risks leave communities unprepared and unaware of the potential consequences. Red tide has been detected in Pinellas County waters following Hurricane Helene. This poses an additional health risk for residents already dealing with storm damage and cleanup, as red tide can cause respiratory problems and potentially harm marine life.

4 Okt 20247min

Hurricane Helene - HAARP Engineered and Steered to Wipe Out a Town

Hurricane Helene - HAARP Engineered and Steered to Wipe Out a Town

Conspiracy theories circulate about Hurricane Helene, which struck Florida in September 2024 and wreaked havoc upon upstate North Carolina. Some theories claim the hurricane was intentionally manipulated to impact Republican areas, while others suggest it was engineered to clear land for lithium mining. We also examine theories claiming the hurricane was created or guided by technology, such as HAARP, frequency transmitters, or cloud seeding. While lithium is on the mind of conspiracy theorist, a real life quartz mining facility has been severely impacted by Helene, which could cause supply chain disruptions for weeks or months.

4 Okt 202410min

Hurricane Ian: Investigation Shows Homeowners Insurance Companies Not Paying Up After 2 Years

Hurricane Ian: Investigation Shows Homeowners Insurance Companies Not Paying Up After 2 Years

A 60 Minutes report on insurer fraud in Florida following Hurricane Ian shows that numerous companies have systematically changed reports in order to deny homeowners of up to 90% of the payment they deserve after catastrophic losses. It focuses on the claims of several licensed adjusters, who allege that insurance carriers were purposefully altering damage reports to reduce payouts to homeowners. These adjusters claim that their reports were edited by desk adjusters who had never even visited the damaged properties, reducing the amount of money the homeowners received. The report alleges that this practice was widespread, affecting many homeowners who were left with significant damage and insufficient funds to repair their homes… and are still awaiting justice even today. While these charges have been presented to the Florida Attorney General’s office, they have failed to prosecute 2 years after Ian struck Southwest Florida in 2022.

3 Okt 202411min

Asheville - Climate Change “Safe Haven”?

Asheville - Climate Change “Safe Haven”?

We explore the devastating floods that hit Asheville, North Carolina, after Hurricane Helene, challenging the city's former reputation as a "climate haven." It explains that climate change is making intense rainfall events more frequent and severe, leaving even high-elevation areas vulnerable. Climate change is exacerbating flooding risks across the United States, including in Appalachia, where the terrain amplifies the impact of heavy rains. We also compare the recent floods to the "Great Flood" of 1916, highlighting the catastrophic devastation caused by heavy rainfall and emphasizing the historical context of similar events in the region. Damage from Helene is extensive, causing significant problems with infrastructure and prompting relief efforts as the full extent of the impact still remains unknown.

3 Okt 202410min

What’s Your Flood Risk? Tools to Help you Determine

What’s Your Flood Risk? Tools to Help you Determine

How to determine flood risk for properties in the United States. Yale Climate brings us tools and resources, categorized by the type of information they provide, and it critiques the accuracy and limitations of each. These tools are essential in an era of increasing flood risk due to climate change. We discuss the new Risk Rating 2.0 system implemented by the National Flood Insurance Program, which aims to ensure future payouts do not exceed premiums.

3 Okt 202411min

Hurricane Helene - Bomb after the Lull

Hurricane Helene - Bomb after the Lull

The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season began as a beast with Hurricane Beryl setting the stage for what was predicted to be an overactive hurricane season. With an August and early September peak season lull, forecasters were questioning the reasoning for the season bottoming out. Then intro Hurricane Helene. Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida as a category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph and a storm surge of 20 feet causing not only one of the highest surges seen in the state of Florida, but also some of the highest storm surge ever recorded in the Tampa Bay Area. As a weakening storm system, Helene continued to dump excess amounts of rain through parts of Georgia and Appalachia, causing serious flash flooding that has caused the death toll to spike in recent days as rescuers scramble to sift through the destruction. Some people are wondering how a warming climate may have been a factor in supercharging Helene

3 Okt 202411min

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