Volcanic Unrest at Mount Spurr, Alaska

Volcanic Unrest at Mount Spurr, Alaska

Volcanic Unrest at Mount Spurr, Alaska (February 2025)

Summary:

Mount Spurr, a stratovolcano located approximately 75 miles west of Anchorage, Alaska, is exhibiting signs of increased volcanic activity, prompting close monitoring by the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO). The primary indicators are an increase in seismic activity, changes to the summit crater, and observations of fumaroles. While an eruption is not certain, volcanologists estimate a roughly 50-50 chance of an eruption at Crater Peak and are closely watching for additional signals that would indicate an increased likelihood. Past eruptions, particularly those in 1953 and 1992, demonstrate the potential for significant disruption to air travel due to ashfall.

Key Themes and Details:

  • Increased Seismic Activity: A significant increase in earthquakes has been recorded since April, escalating from approximately 30 per week to 125 per week. Over 2,700 earthquakes have been recorded in total, with the largest being a magnitude 2.9 quake on January 2. As noted by one article, "thousands of earthquakes and notable shifts in the terrain have been observed over recent weeks, indicating that the volcano may be on the verge of an eruption."
  • Location of Potential Eruption: If an eruption occurs, scientists believe it is most likely to occur at Crater Peak, a vent located about two miles below the Spurr summit. Crater Peak erupted in 1953 and 1992.
  • Potential Hazards: An eruption at Crater Peak could release "streams of hot gas, rock and ash traveling at speeds of more than 200 miles per hour." This could also lead to lahars (mudflows) due to melting snow and ice. While the immediate area around Mount Spurr is sparsely populated, the primary concern is ashfall affecting Anchorage and disrupting air travel.
  • Impact on Air Travel: The 1992 eruption caused significant travel disruptions by blanketing Anchorage in ash and shutting down the airport. The USGS reports that "planes are highly susceptible to volcanic materials, which can damage the fuselage, blades and significantly hinder engine performance." The increased volume of air traffic in 2025 compared to 1992 suggests that a similar eruption could be even more disruptive today.
  • Monitoring Efforts: The AVO is closely monitoring Mount Spurr using 11 seismic stations and conducting overflights to take gas measurements and maintain instruments. They are looking for specific warning signs that would indicate an imminent eruption, including increased seismic activity, gas emissions, surface heating, and changes in surface deformation. As Matt Haney stated, "We’re watching it very closely... We’re saying that there’s unrest above background [levels], but it’s uncertain if this is actually building to an eruption."
  • Uncertainty of Eruption: While there is a 50-50 chance of an eruption, it is also possible that the volcanic unrest will subside without an eruption. Past episodes of increased activity have not always resulted in eruptions. According to one of the articles, "Sometimes there can be a build-up of magma beneath the volcano, but it doesn’t have enough magma to ultimately proceed all the way and produce a volcanic eruption."
  • Advanced Warning: The AVO expects to see additional warning signs before an eruption, potentially providing "days to a few weeks" of advanced notice, although this is not guaranteed. The AVO stated that, "it is very likely that if an eruption were to occur it would be preceded by additional signals that would allow advance warning."

Episoder(210)

Hurricane Milton - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Hurricane Milton - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

The aftermath of Hurricane Milton, which hit Florida yesterday, and its impacts on different parts of the state will be memorable for years to comeThe storm's three phases, with intense tornadoes in the first phase, storm surge in the second, and strong winds and heavy rain in the third highlight that Hurricanes are not always one dimensional. The accuracy of the National Hurricane Center's forecasts, particularly for the storm's track were phenomenal, but challenges in predicting rapid intensification still exist. Florida hurricanes can come rapid fire, and while that’s not new, sea level rise and warming sea surface temperatures are bringing us new challenges. Increased preparedness and better construction standards should be the focus in order to weather these recurring hurricane threats.

11 Okt 20246min

Hurricane Milton - Florida Hazards Include Storm Surge, Flash Flood, High Wind, & Tornados 🌪️

Hurricane Milton - Florida Hazards Include Storm Surge, Flash Flood, High Wind, & Tornados 🌪️

Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall on the West Coast of Florida, bringing with it the threat of dangerous storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rainfall. The National Hurricane Center has issued warnings for the entire Florida peninsula, urging residents to prepare for the storm by evacuating low-lying areas, securing their homes, and stocking up on essential supplies. The storm's impact is expected to be particularly severe in the Tampa Bay Area and Southwest Florida where the surge could reach up to 13 feet. With saturated soil from the preceding rain, the storm is expected to cause extensive tree damage and power outages.

9 Okt 20247min

Hurricane Milton - Storm Surge Height Forecast Scenarios

Hurricane Milton - Storm Surge Height Forecast Scenarios

SummaryHurricane Milton is headed for the state of Florida and we dissect the analysis of the potential storm surge impact, drawing comparisons to Hurricane Michael's landfall in 2018. Counterclockwise rotation of hurricanes, the storm surge is significantly lower on the left side of the eye (north side in Milton's case). Two scenarios are presented, one with Milton making landfall north of the Skyway Bridge and the other with Milton making landfall south. Meteorologist Bryan Bennett, who came up with this analysis gives us surge heights for various locations under both scenarios, highlighting the significant difference in surge flooding depending on Milton's landfall location. Including places like Sanibel Island, Ana Maria Island, downtown Tampa, St. Petersburg, Madeira Beach, Tarpon Springs and New Port Richey.Ultimately, please remember the importance of staying informed by following official forecasts and evacuation orders.

8 Okt 202410min

Hurricane Milton: Tampa Bay & Florida West Coast Flood Scenarios

Hurricane Milton: Tampa Bay & Florida West Coast Flood Scenarios

Hurricane Milton, a rapidly intensified to a Category 5 hurricane yesterday, and is expected to make landfall on Florida's west coast late Wednesday/Early Thursday. The storm is predicted to cause significant storm surge, especially in the Tampa Bay area, with potential for flooding up to 15 feet above normal. The storm's forecast increase in size will also produce widespread strong winds and heavy rainfall, increasing the risk of flash flooding. The local emergency managers have issued evacuation orders for areas in the path of the storm, and it is imperative that residents heed these warnings and prepare for extended power outages.

8 Okt 20246min

Flooding: How to Prepare, What to Expect, What to Do

Flooding: How to Prepare, What to Expect, What to Do

With Hurricane Milton, approaching Florida here are flood specific tips to help you out. Partial list at the bottom…A survivor of Hurricane Ian's flooding shares valuable advice based on their experience. They emphasize proactive measures to prepare for potential flooding, such as raising valuables off the floor, securing important documents, and preparing essential items like flashlights, medication, and pet supplies. The source also provides post-flood guidance, focusing on prioritizing safety, organizing debris, and meticulously documenting repair expenses. It stresses financial responsibility by recommending against insurance fraud and encourages seeking assistance from various resources like FEMA, the Red Cross, and county programs. The author highlights the importance of remaining calm, acknowledging that while the situation may feel overwhelming, it is possible to rebuild and overcome the adversity.Facebook Post from Brandy Barber:As a Florida Shores Hurricane Ian Flood Victim— here are some things I’d wished I’d thought of/things we did. (Since you cant control it, youll want to have your head in the game. This isn’t to cause fear, it’s to equip people because we’ve been through it and wish we would’ve known. Hindsight is always 20/20). If you think your home could flood with recent happenings/track record, then maybe pay attention. We got through it and if you do flood, I promise you will too. These things may seem extreme but trust me, at the first site of our yard flooding, and this is what we are doing: 🌀 BEFORE YOU FLOOD/PREVENTIVE MEASURES: 🌀•have your volume on/download apps. A flash flood warning woke me up and saved me from losing way more than I could’ve. •Documents, books, things in low drawers, pictures or basically anything on lower ground, move to countertops. Know exactly where your important info is in case you need it. That includes for your car, we lost 3 of those too. •We lost all electric appliances because they were in our low kitchen cabinets. Move them up higher (food processor, crockpot, griddles). •dry food- get out of lower cabinets. You’re going to be hungry while you wait for rescue. We had hot cheese and grapes to eat. Don’t be us. •We kept our bandaids/sanitary stuff/meds/blow dryers in a low bathroom cabinet and lost it all. Anything you think you might need that isn’t in a bottle, move it up the night before. •Turn your breaker off as soon as you start flooding even if your power is already out because you won’t be thinking of it, trust me. Somehow my magical husband did, but I sure didn’t. This can hurt you or a lineman when it back feeds. •watch out for extension cords from your generator into the home with standing water. Seems silly to tell you that, but your brain is going to be in shock already, so let’s not shock the rest of you. •If you have gas cans ready for your generator, don’t set them on the ground!!! Ours floated away and created toxic water all around us and in our house. •have a bucket of some sort to keep anything electronic dry for immediate use. (Phone/flash lights). •Get your pet food off of the ground. Have leashes on the table next to your food to get ready to leave on a moment’s notice •Know where your paddle board/kayak is if you have one and be ready to use it. It saved us •if your dog crates are on the floor, put them on your kitchen table or anywhere off the ground. We did this trudging through two feet of water and it wasn’t fun… Search for this Post on Facebook as text is limited here… I’ve reshared on my personal Facebook Page https://www.facebook.com/pontiac51

8 Okt 20248min

Milton Now a Major Hurricane - Storm Surge to 12’ - Evacuations Begin Today

Milton Now a Major Hurricane - Storm Surge to 12’ - Evacuations Begin Today

Florida officials urge residents to take necessary precautions, such as checking their evacuation zones, preparing disaster supply kits, and finding a safe place to stay. They also emphasize the importance of leaving early to avoid traffic congestion and delays, noting that it may also take several days to return home after the storm passes. Milton is now a category three major hurricane with winds of 120 mph and is still expected to continue strengthening. Although unfavorable upper level winds may cause the storm to weaken prior to landfall, 12 foot storm surge is still a deadly concern. Remember to run from the water and hide from the wind… you don’t have to evacuate far if you are in an evacuation zone as it’s best to stay as close to home as possible. Check out the state of Florida’s emergency management website for more information on preparation and linking you up to your counties evacuation zone maps. Of course you can always search for your county evacuation zone map directly. https://www.floridadisaster.org/

7 Okt 202412min

Hurricane Milton - 145 MPH Winds Forecast - Florida Peninsula on Alert

Hurricane Milton - 145 MPH Winds Forecast - Florida Peninsula on Alert

Hurricane Milton, currently over the Gulf of Mexico, is intensifying and projected to become a major hurricane. The hurricane is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of Florida, potentially bringing life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall. Residents in the Florida Peninsula are advised to monitor the storm's progress and follow the guidance of local officials.

7 Okt 202410min

Hurricane Hunters Say Milton is Rapidly Intensifying as We Look at Different Landfall Scenarios

Hurricane Hunters Say Milton is Rapidly Intensifying as We Look at Different Landfall Scenarios

Sunday afternoon update on Hurricane Milton, which is rapidly intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico. Details on the hurricane's current location, movement, and projected path, indicating that it is expected to become a major hurricane and approach the west coast of Florida by midweek. Hazards, including storm surge and heavy rainfall which could lead to flooding, and dangerous surf conditions along the Gulf Coast are a concern especially near and south of the landfall location. Points to the north of the center of circulation could see stronger wins and rain then on the so-called “dirty side“ which would normally be on the southside interaction with a jet streak the storm could be a little bit different. We looked at scenarios with, the potential for one north of Tampa Bay and a scenario for south of Tampa Bay.

6 Okt 202412min

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