Should you trust your gut?
Nudge3 Mar 2025

Should you trust your gut?

Golf players, investors and CEOs perform better if they take their time. Or do they? Today, Prof. Gerd Gigerenzer reveals why intuition often outperforms complex analysis and how shortcuts can lead to smarter decisions in business, sports, and investing. You’ll learn: Why gut instinct can beat data-driven decisions (feat. insights from Gerd Gigerenzer). How firefighters, CEOs, and handball players make better choices under pressure. The dangers of overthinking—why too much time can worsen decisions (feat. 2004 golf study). Why simple rules predict outcomes better than complex models (feat. Wimbledon & NFL studies). --- Sign up to my newsletter: https://www.nudgepodcast.com/mailing-list Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/phill-agnew-22213187/ Watch Nudge on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@nudgepodcast/ Gerd’s book Smart Management: https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262548014/smart-management/ --- Sources: Baum, J. R., & Wally, S. (2003). Strategic decision speed and firm performance. Strategic Management Journal, 24(11), 1107–1129. Beilock, S. L., Bertenthal, B. I., McCoy, A. M., & Carr, T. H. (2004). Haste does not always make waste: Expertise, direction of attention, and speed versus accuracy in performing sensorimotor skills. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 11(2), 373–379. DeMiguel, V., Garlappi, L., & Uppal, R. (2009). Optimal versus naive diversification: How inefficient is the 1/N portfolio strategy? The Review of Financial Studies, 22(5), 1915–1953. Dörfler, V., & Eden, C. (2017). Becoming a Nobel Laureate: Patterns of a journey to the highest level of expertise. AoM 2017: 77th Annual Meeting of the Academy of Management, Atlanta, GA, August 4-8. Easterbrook, G. (2010). TMQ’s annual bad predictions review. ESPN. Eslam sdt Henry. (2018). Best football trick world cup 2006 Jens Lehmann [Video]. YouTube. https://youtu.be/LRAOEWAbO00 Johnson, J., & Raab, M. (2003). Take the first: Option-generation and resulting choices. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 91(2), 215–229. Klein, G. A. (1999). Sources of power: How people make decisions. MIT Press. Reb, J., Luan, S., & Gigerenzer, G. (2024). Smart management: How simple heuristics help leaders make good decisions in an uncertain world. The MIT Press. Serwe, S., & Frings, C. (2006). Who will win Wimbledon? The recognition heuristic in predicting sports events. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 19(4), 321–332. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.530 West, D. C., Acar, O. A., & Caruana, A. (2020). Choosing among alternative new product development projects: The role of heuristics. Psychology & Marketing, 37(12), 1719–1736. https://doi.org/10.1002/mar.21397

Episoder(284)

#28: Coronavirus: How to change the behavior of a nation

#28: Coronavirus: How to change the behavior of a nation

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#27: Understanding customers during times of uncertainty

#27: Understanding customers during times of uncertainty

Due to Covid-19, consumers across the globe have different priorities. Their needs, concerns and fears have changed over night. So, how should marketers continue their work without sounding out of tou...

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#26: Why do 80% of product launches fail?

#26: Why do 80% of product launches fail?

According to HBR, 80% of new product launches fail. But why? Could it be because the frameworks and models marketers implement aren't fit for purpose? Or perhaps because our understanding of what work...

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#25: Coronavirus: The psychology behind panic buying

#25: Coronavirus: The psychology behind panic buying

The world is panic buying. The UK’s largest supermarket has capped sales of essentials, Kiwi shoppers are spending 40% more YoY, and some Malaysian consumers have spent 800% more on hand sanitizer. Bu...

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#24: How to nudge within your business

#24: How to nudge within your business

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9 Mar 202024min

#23: How to make your writing more effective

#23: How to make your writing more effective

Whether we like it or not, writing is a vital part of our jobs. It's the way we communicate, negotiate, convince and ultimately work. If your writing isn't persuasive, you won't be very good at convin...

23 Feb 202027min

#22: How to be a good boss

#22: How to be a good boss

75% of Americans say the worst aspect of their job is their boss. In fact, Daniel Kahneman found that interacting with a boss was the second least favorite activity of our day (just ahead of commuting...

10 Feb 202019min

#21: The science behind improving your productivity

#21: The science behind improving your productivity

Only 8% of us in the UK feel engaged by our jobs and the majority of us say we’re say we feel burned out in our roles. The modern workplace is actually less productive and more stressful than before. ...

28 Jan 202022min

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