Tornado Outbreak: Rare Level 5 “High Risk” for Severe Weather

Tornado Outbreak: Rare Level 5 “High Risk” for Severe Weather

Timeline of Main Events (March 14-16, 2025)

Friday, March 14, 2025:

  • Evening/Overnight:Severe Thunderstorm Watches are in effect from Iowa and Nebraska southward to Kansas and Missouri.
  • Tornado Watches are in effect for a large part of Missouri, Illinois, and Arkansas, extending to the Gulf Coast.
  • Parts of north and west Alabama are under a Level 3 out of 5 risk for severe weather starting late tonight (around 11 PM or later), with a "conditional" threat of intense storms if a "cap" of warmer air doesn't hold.
  • Areas west of this zone in Alabama, including Huntsville and Birmingham, are under a Level 2 risk, and areas further south are under a Level 1 risk. Southeast Alabama is not expected to see severe weather tonight.
  • Storms in west Alabama are expected to develop around 11 PM and move eastward through the overnight hours.
  • The Tallahassee area in Florida could see storms arriving as early as midnight or 1 AM Sunday, with the more likely window from 4 AM to 10 AM.

Saturday, March 15, 2025:

  • All Day: A widespread and dangerous severe weather outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast states and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley.
  • Morning: Confidence increases about the probability of widespread severe storms in Alabama, particularly from Saturday afternoon until early Sunday morning.
  • Daytime/Afternoon:A tornado outbreak is possible across the central Gulf Coast states and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley.
  • Multiple intense, long-tracked tornadoes (EF-3 or higher) are possible on Saturday.
  • The storms will develop along the Mississippi River and quickly move east from midday to the afternoon.
  • A line of supercells is expected to swing through central and southern Mississippi into northern Alabama, central and east Tennessee, and north Georgia.
  • Cities such as New Orleans, Louisiana, and Birmingham, Alabama, are under a Level 4 out of 5 risk.
  • In Alabama, there could be supercells or individual severe storms producing tornadoes, followed by a squall line moving west to east across the state.
  • Storms could begin to affect Alabama around noon and last into early Sunday morning.
  • The Storm Prediction Center's highest risk level (Level 5 out of 5) impacts 2.7 million people in major cities like Birmingham, Jackson, Tuscaloosa, Hoover, and Hattiesburg.
  • Night: The severe weather threat in Alabama is expected to continue through early Sunday morning.

Sunday, March 16, 2025:

  • Early Morning: Storms will be tracking eastward and out of Alabama.
  • Daytime: The storm system will have traversed the entire U.S., with its focus on the East Coast, including the Interstate 95 corridor.
  • Threats on the East Coast: The threat of tornadoes will be confined to the Virginia coast and south into the Carolinas. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main threats from Florida to the Northeast.
  • Morning (Tallahassee): The severe weather threat could continue even after an initial round of storms moves through the Tallahassee area. Much of the eastern Big Bend is under a slight risk of severe storms for after 8 AM Sunday.

Episoder(208)

Deadlines Loom for FEMA Hurricane Disaster Assistance, Unemployment, and Appeals

Deadlines Loom for FEMA Hurricane Disaster Assistance, Unemployment, and Appeals

Meteorology Matters provides details onthe Disaster Unemployment Assistance (DUA) and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) aid available to Florida residents affected by Hurricanes Helene and Milton. We explain how to apply for FEMA assistance and appeal denials, highlighting challenges faced by applicants. We also focus on DUA application procedures, deadlines, and eligibility requirements for individuals whose employment was impacted by the hurricanes. We go over supplemental information on DUA, including eligibility criteria, application methods, and appeal processes, emphasizing the importance of meeting deadlines and providing necessary documentation. We aim to inform and guide individuals seeking aid after the hurricanes before time runs out!

25 Nov 202416min

What a Second Trump Term Means for Science

What a Second Trump Term Means for Science

People express concern over the potential impact of a second Trump presidency on US science policy. They highlight anxieties regarding potential budget cuts to scientific research, increased focus on research security potentially hindering international collaboration, and a diminished respect for scientific consensus in policy decisions, particularly concerning climate change and public health. The appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to a key position is cited as a cause for alarm due to his controversial views on public health. Finally, there are discussions of proactive strategies for the scientific community to engage with the new administration and advocate for continued funding and the preservation of independent scientific agencies.

25 Nov 202416min

Climate Change Supercharged Hurricane Season 2024

Climate Change Supercharged Hurricane Season 2024

Meteorology Matters looks at how Climate change significantly intensified the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Multiple reports, including one from Climate Central and a peer-reviewed study in Environmental Research: Climate, confirm that human-caused ocean warming increased the wind speeds of all eleven hurricanes. This resulted in seven hurricanes being upgraded to higher Saffir-Simpson categories and two tropical storms becoming hurricanes. The increased intensity led to substantial damage and economic losses, with climate change attributed to a significant portion of the damage caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton. A separate analysis by a hurricane expert highlights the unusually active 2024 season, noting record-breaking ocean temperatures and the occurrence of three simultaneous hurricanes in October.

23 Nov 202418min

November Florida Hurricanes & Potential Sara

November Florida Hurricanes & Potential Sara

A potential tropical storm, dubbed Invest 99L, is forming in the Caribbean and has a high chance of developing into Tropical Storm Sara within the next few days.Multiple weather models are forecasting Sara to potentially become a hurricane and threaten Florida's Gulf Coast next week, although the track and intensity of the storm remain uncertain. MeteorologyMatters discusses the rarity of November hurricanes, with only three recorded landfalls in the US since 1850, but warn that warm water temperatures in the Atlantic basin are fueling an unusually active hurricane season.

13 Nov 202417min

Abortion and LGBTQ Community Cause Hurricanes?

Abortion and LGBTQ Community Cause Hurricanes?

Meteorology Matters addresses Tucker Carlson’s bizarre assertion that abortions cause hurricanes, dismissing scientific explanations for their increased frequency and intensity, and instead linking them to a supposed “human sacrifice.” We examine these claims through a scientific lens, presenting evidence that contradicts their religious justifications and highlights their potential harm in influencing public opinion on scientific and social issues. We look back at televangelist Pat Robertson’s claims over the years that he can control the weather and that God is punishing the U.S. for its increasing acceptance of homosexuality, specifically targeting Disney World and abortion supporters.

12 Nov 202420min

Biden Protecting Climate Protections from Donald Trump

Biden Protecting Climate Protections from Donald Trump

Meteorology Matters looks at the potential impact of Donald Trump’s return to the presidency on science and environmental policy. Currently, the Biden administration is trying to solidify its environmental policies, such as those regarding greenhouse gas emissions and vehicle electrification, before Trump takes office. We examine the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s potential return to power and how it might influence scientific research, particularly concerning climate change, vaccine skepticism, and the role of government funding in science. There’s the potential for conflict between Trump’s agenda and the goals of the scientific community.

11 Nov 20248min

Climate Policy: Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump

Climate Policy: Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump

Meteorology Matters compares and contrasts the climate change policies of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. We explore their records on climate change, examining their stances on issues such as the Paris Agreement, renewable energy investment, electric vehicles, and fossil fuel projects. We look at the broader implications of their positions for the future of U.S. climate policy, highlighting their contrasting views on the urgency of climate action and their approaches to clean energy transitions. The candidates' foreign policy platforms, including their views on the war in the Middle East, the NATO alliance, climate change, trade with China, aid for Ukraine, and immigration. Delving into the potential impact of a Harris or Trump administration on climate and energy policy, we analyze the challenges and constraints they will face in implementing their agendas.

5 Nov 202423min

National Hurricane Center Monitoring Possible Development for November Tropical Systems

National Hurricane Center Monitoring Possible Development for November Tropical Systems

Meteorology Matters discusses the possibility of tropical development in the Atlantic basin during the final month of hurricane season. We look at three specific areas of interest: the southwestern Caribbean Sea, the northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles, and the North Atlantic. We also emphasize the importance of monitoring these systems as their development and movement could potentially bring heavy rainfall and flooding to various regions.

2 Nov 202418min

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