Nobody Knows (Yet Again)

Nobody Knows (Yet Again)

In his latest memo, Howard discusses how the recent events surrounding tariffs can have a seismic but unpredictable impact on the global economy. Seismic in that they reflect a fundamental undoing of longstanding norms, and unpredictable in that tariffs would bring untold second- and third-order consequences. He emphasizes that there is no foreknowledge here, with forecasts even less likely to be accurate than usual. Howard considers the response of the financial markets, highlighting the key question regards the appropriateness of the market reaction thus far: has it been just right, excessive, or inadequate?

You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/nobody-knows-yet-again).

Episoder(75)

The Pendulum in International Affairs

The Pendulum in International Affairs

Howard Marks’s latest memo connects two seemingly unrelated trends – Europe’s energy dependence and U.S. offshoring – to explain why the pendulum of companies’ and countries’ behavior may be swinging ...

23 Mar 202229min

The Rewind: It’s All a Big Mistake

The Rewind: It’s All a Big Mistake

Howard reflects on this memo originally published on June 20, 2012. He discusses why understanding mistakes – both your own and others’ – is key to superior investing. He’s joined by Bob O’Leary, Glo...

24 Feb 202253min

Introducing "Behind The Memo": Selling Out

Introducing "Behind The Memo": Selling Out

Listen to the first episode of our new series Behind the Memo, in which Howard breaks down his latest memo, discussing its origins, themes and key insights. In Selling Out, published on January 13, 20...

21 Jan 202232min

Selling Out

Selling Out

Howard Marks’s latest memo considers one of investing’s most fundamental questions: when to sell. Howard explains that it’s foolish to sell because prices are up and because they’re down – and why, mo...

13 Jan 202235min

The Rewind: Uncertainty

The Rewind: Uncertainty

Howard reflects on this memo originally published on May 11, 2020.  Writing near the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis, he discusses the power of saying “I don’t know” and the danger of confirmation bi...

20 Des 20211h 1min

The Winds of Change

The Winds of Change

The last 20 months have taught us to question everything. What is the future of work? Can American democracy survive? Will Baby Boomers keep consuming more than their fair share? And what comes after ...

30 Nov 20211h 2min

The Rewind: What Does The Market Know?

The Rewind: What Does The Market Know?

Howard reflects on this memo originally published on January 19, 2016. In the second episode of a two-part series, he discusses the problems with taking advice from the market. But he also draws on in...

7 Okt 202152min

The Rewind: On The Couch

The Rewind: On The Couch

Howard reflects on this memo originally published on January 14, 2016. In the first of a two-part series, he analyzes investors’ irrationality and discusses why things that are obvious in investing ar...

30 Sep 20211h 13min

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