What Nate Silver's learned about forecasting elections

What Nate Silver's learned about forecasting elections

This close to an election, who do I want to hear from? Nate Silver, of course. I sat down with the FiveThirtyEight founder and math wizard to talk about how he builds his forecasting models, what they’re saying about 2018, how big the Democrats’ structural disadvantage in the House and Senate really is, whether there's a purpose to predicting election outcomes, which campaign reporters he reads, and whether Trump is the favorite for 2020. Silver and I also share the experience of building journalism outlets trying to do things a bit differently over the past five years, so we discuss what he’s learned along the way, what he wishes he knew at the beginning, and how he hires. Silver brings unusual clarity and rigor to the topics he focuses on, and right now, given the speed and intensity of the elections news cycle, a bit of rigor is a welcome thing. Enjoy! Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman Bad Blood by John Carreyrou Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Episoder(765)

The college dream has failed

The college dream has failed

College was supposed to be a ticket to a better life. A degree meant a good job, a decent salary, and a brighter future. That promise is breaking down. For many graduates, a college degree no longer g...

15 Mai 48min

Why progress is hard to see

Why progress is hard to see

If someone asked you to describe the state of the world right now, odds are you’d reach for the bad news first: political division, AI panic, war, ecological crisis, unraveling everywhere. And none of...

11 Mai 47min

The wellness path to conspiracy

The wellness path to conspiracy

Sean talks with Vox senior correspondent Anna North about the strange rise of the “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) movement. They explore why MAHA resonates, especially with younger people, how leg...

8 Mai 46min

The science of awe

The science of awe

Sean talks with psychologist Dacher Keltner about the science of awe and why it might be one of the most important emotions we have. They explore how awe quiets the ego, shifts our attention away from...

4 Mai 57min

In defense of fatherhood

In defense of fatherhood

Everyone says having kids changes your life. That’s true. But it’s not the whole story. Sean talks with author Derek Thompson about fatherhood, how raising kids can shock you, and why parenting feels...

1 Mai 37min

The case for thinking like a child

The case for thinking like a child

Sean talks with psychologist Alison Gopnik about how children think, learn, experience the world, and why their minds may be more powerful than ours in some crucial ways. They explore the idea that ki...

27 Apr 44min

The one thing the Supreme Court won’t touch

The one thing the Supreme Court won’t touch

The Supreme Court is aggressive on almost everything. Except the internet. Sean talks with Vox’s Ian Millhiser about a surprising pattern at the Court. While the Court has been eager to reshape schoo...

24 Apr 40min

The Pentagon’s AI war machine

The Pentagon’s AI war machine

The Pentagon has spent years building AI tools to help identify targets, speed up battlefield decisions, and make war more “efficient.” What started as an effort to analyze drone footage has grown int...

20 Apr 48min

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