What Nate Silver's learned about forecasting elections

What Nate Silver's learned about forecasting elections

This close to an election, who do I want to hear from? Nate Silver, of course. I sat down with the FiveThirtyEight founder and math wizard to talk about how he builds his forecasting models, what they’re saying about 2018, how big the Democrats’ structural disadvantage in the House and Senate really is, whether there's a purpose to predicting election outcomes, which campaign reporters he reads, and whether Trump is the favorite for 2020. Silver and I also share the experience of building journalism outlets trying to do things a bit differently over the past five years, so we discuss what he’s learned along the way, what he wishes he knew at the beginning, and how he hires. Silver brings unusual clarity and rigor to the topics he focuses on, and right now, given the speed and intensity of the elections news cycle, a bit of rigor is a welcome thing. Enjoy! Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman Bad Blood by John Carreyrou Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Episoder(765)

The problem with gamifying life

The problem with gamifying life

Games are fun. Aren’t they? When we play games — board games, video games, any kind of game — something magical happens. Games allow us to explore, to create little worlds where we can be different...

9 Feb 49min

America is football

America is football

Why do we love football so much? Why does this sport dominate American culture in a way nothing else can? Why does it feel essential even to people who barely like sports? And what does it say about u...

26 Jan 50min

How we built a government that can’t build anything

How we built a government that can’t build anything

Why is it so hard for America to build things? Bridges take years to construct. Housing costs are soaring. Transit systems are crumbling. And we’re struggling to update our infrastructure to prepar...

12 Jan 45min

It’s okay to not be okay

It’s okay to not be okay

It’s not always the most wonderful time of the year. Every December, we’re told to be merry and stay positive. But a lot of us don’t feel that way. And when we don’t, the pressure to be happy makes...

22 Des 202558min

Forgiveness is optional

Forgiveness is optional

You have to forgive people who wrong you…right? The world is filled with injustice and wrongdoing, and to live in the world — to not be consumed by anger — forgiveness is necessary. At least that’s wh...

15 Des 20251h 4min

The pornification of everything

The pornification of everything

Sean’s guest today is Daniel Kolitz, author of a remarkable Harper’s story on “gooning.”  They talk about this emerging subculture and how it reflects back on the larger world, from the economics of ...

8 Des 202556min

What counts as progress?

What counts as progress?

We’ve never had more wealth, more data, or more ways to be entertained. So why doesn’t it feel like progress?  Sean’s guest today is Brad DeLong, an economic historian at UC Berkeley and author of ...

1 Des 202541min

How to survive awkward encounters

How to survive awkward encounters

We all know what awkwardness feels like. It's that jolt of discomfort when the social script breaks down, and no one knows what to do next. But what if awkwardness isn’t a flaw to fix but a window int...

17 Nov 202556min

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