Trump’s 100% Tariff, Strong Jobs Data, and Q1 GDP Contraction: PALvatar Market Recap, May 05 2025

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the consumer price index increased 8.6% from a year ago and 1% from a month ago in May. Both readings exceeded expectations and re-centered for the Federal Reserve and the White House the problem of fixing 40-year-high inflation. According to Peter Boockvar, the CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, "The odds of 50 basis points at the September meeting of the FOMC are back to 100%." Not coincidentally, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index plumbed an all-time low in May. Boockvar joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about today’s CPI report, the market’s reaction, and whether the Fed will be able to tame inflation and manage a “soft landing” for the economy at the same time. We also hear from Kyle Bass and Wil VanLoh about how money-printing and war have contributed to this historic inflation surge. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3O60H7h. Watch the full conversation featuring Kyle Bass and Wil VanLoh here: https://rvtv.io/3NEKq9v. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

11 Jun 202241min

The three major U.S. equity indexes traded lower for a second consecutive day, as investors look forward to Friday’s release of consumer price index data for May. The European Central Bank is accelerating its own tightening scheme, as inflation’s grip on policymakers remains tight. Initial claims for unemployment insurance showed the biggest increase since July 21, a sign the labor market may be cooling. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about choppy price action, how he’s positioning himself ahead of Friday’s CPI release, what he sees the Federal Reserve doing about it, and why he’s trimming his long exposure. We also hear from Simon Mikhailovich about getting back to fundamentals and looking at things like balance sheets when it comes to making investment decisions. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3xi5lIK. Watch the full video featuring Simon Mikhailovich here: https://rvtv.io/3QbSHnm. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

10 Jun 202240min

U.S. equities slipped deeper into the red as the trading day progressed, after European stocks closed lower ahead of tomorrow’s interest-rate decision by the European Central Bank. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen has hit a fresh 20-year low against the dollar, a potentially contagious development for the global financial system. Real Vision’s expert on the ground in Asia, Weston Nakamura, joins Ash Bennington at the top of today’s show to talk about the consequences for global markets of the yen’s historic weakness. And Darius Dale is here to talk about recent price action and market risks. “We’ll see new highs on yields if inflation misbehaves Friday,” says Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro. We also hear from Santiago Velez on a crypto regulation bill introduced in the U.S. Senate. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3xdgBpS. Watch the full Crypto Unwrapped episode featuring Santiago Velez, Ash Bennington, and Nico Brugge here: https://rvtv.io/3mtkeCZ. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

8 Jun 202241min

Stocks were higher for a second straight day, but there’s another set of prices we should be paying attention to, according to Tony Greer. “We’re walking into the first full week of June with oil pressing the $120 highs, copper leaping 2.5% into moving average resistance, nickel bouncing 4% off trend support, wheat rallying 4% into resistance at $11, and natural gas trading at $9.” And the commodities rally shows few signs of letting up anytime soon. Indeed, the World Bank again cut its forecast for global economic expansion in 2022, warning that several years of above-average inflation and below-average growth lie ahead. Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about commodities, supply chains, inflation, and growth. We also hear from Christophe Ollari about what the Federal Reserve must do to bring down inflation and what it means for markets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3aLdRZc. Watch the full conversation featuring Christophe Ollari and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3O2fhNl. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

8 Jun 202233min

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite were all well in the green deep into Monday’s trading session. “An oversold bounce is underway for the major indices in welcome relief from the downside momentum that characterized the preceding 7-8 weeks,” notes Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies. “We are viewing the oversold bounce as likely to present a selling opportunity.” Stockton joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about technical analysis and her bullish short-term and bearish long-term views on stocks. We also hear from Imran Lakha about Bitcoin, Ethereum, and recent price action in the crypto market. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3aybn0d. Watch the full conversation featuring Imran Lakha and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3auYlR8. To view Katie's charts click here: https://rvtv.io/3GXDj9D Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

7 Jun 202232min

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Dominic Frisby is a British author, comedian, and voice actor. He is best known as co-host of the television program Money Pit. He joins Harry Melandri to explain why tin is in the middle of an extraordinary bull market and outlines potential opportunities for investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

5 Jun 202237min

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Into The Cryptoverse founder, Benjamin Cowen is one of the most popular analysts in the cryptocurrency space. Cowen, a Ph.D. nuclear engineer, has leveraged his technical knowledge and Youtube reach to create an educational platform for digital assets. Benjamin shares insights on trading digital assets during a bear market, how to deal with market volatility, and why he abandoned an academic career to become a crypto quant. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

4 Jun 202252min

The Nasdaq Composite led stock indexes to the downside on Jobs Friday, as an expectations-beating report on the May employment situation has investors believing the Federal Reserve will continue its aggressive monetary tightening program. Jim Bianco of Bianco Research has long held that the “Fed Put,” in place since 2008-09, is now dead, killed by inflation. Bianco joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about today’s jobs report, the market’s response, and where the Fed goes from here. We also hear from Peter Zeihan about what constrained food and energy markets mean for the geomacro environment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ma3PmD. Watch the full conversation featuring Peter Zeihan and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3asGNoM. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

4 Jun 202239min