Trump’s 100% Tariff, Strong Jobs Data, and Q1 GDP Contraction: PALvatar Market Recap, May 05 2025

OPEC and allies agreed to move forward production increases scheduled for September, but global energy supply problems continue to undermine the Federal Reserve’s efforts to fight inflation in the U.S. That’s to say nothing of rising pressure on global food supply and production. Meanwhile, ahead of Friday’s official report on the employment situation for May from the Bureau of Labor Statistics ADP reported private payrolls increased by just 128,000 last month. That’s the smallest gain of the pandemic-era recovery. Harry Melandri, advisor for Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about inflation, growth, and markets. And we hear from Neal Berger about why the Fed should just get it over with and hike by 100 basis points in a single move. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3M64iAY. Watch the full conversation featuring Neal Berger and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3NRmrDM. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

3 Jun 202237min

We are experiencing technical issues - please head over to our YouTube to watch the livestream. The recording will be up on the website soon after we go off air. The Institute for Supply Management reported that May factory activity exceeded consensus expectations, another sign of resilience for the U.S. economy. “Today’s ISM Manufacturing data represents a decent middle finger to us growth cycle bears - although the market doesn’t seem to care,” said Darius Dale. Still, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro believes the global downturn is not adequately priced into equity markets. Darius joins Andreas Steno Larsen to unpack the May ISM data, the economy, and recent price action. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3m7TtE1. Watch the full interview with Charlie Morris and Michael Nicoletos here: https://rvtv.io/3PUGvHu. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

2 Jun 202229min

Though West Texas Intermediate backed off its intraday high of $119.98, a fresh surge for crude oil has analysts invoking the old “the cure for high prices is high prices” chestnut. Food and energy costs are already dragging down household sentiment, as US consumer confidence fell in May to the lowest since February. And oil’s surge may have only just begun. “Energy prices are set to blow minds this week,” tweeted Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator. “I love that there is still a bearish camp out there talking ‘demand destruction’ because it helps you stay in the trade.” Tony joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about energy and inflation. We also hear from Keith Weiner on the future of gold. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3zd27su. Watch the full conversation between Keith Weiner and Mike Green here: https://rvtv.io/3wY0tsa. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

1 Jun 202236min

Here's a special bonus trade from Real Vision's original series My Life in 4 Trades – be sure to subscribe. Peter Boockvar identifies the keys to managing stress while trading. He also shares his regret at never having a mentor throughout his career. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

30 Mai 202210min

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Perth Tolle is the Founder of Life + Liberty Indexes. She joins Harry Melandri to detail why emerging markets with limited regulation will perform more sustainably than emerging markets with heavier governmental control. She explains the variables that go into Life + Liberty’s allocation strategy (“freedom weighting”) and also touches on global macro. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

29 Mai 202250min

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, Peter Boockvar, joins Maggie Lake to discuss his fascinating career journey. Boockvar explains how to strategically size a position and shares how he learned to manage risk. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

28 Mai 202247min

“The next several weeks are going to be rather brutal for markets,” says Raoul, “and bonds are likely to be your only friend as the market begins to price in an immediate, sharp recession, then a Fed pivot in the summer.” Real Vision’s co-founder and CEO joins Andreas Steno Larsen to expand on that forecast as chatter about “peak inflation” and a “soft landing” are rising, global equity fund inflows are surging, and stocks are closing out their first positive week in the last nine. Are we at a major turning point? Or is this simply a bounce within a bear market? Raoul shares his current thoughts about the economy, stocks, bonds, and crypto, emphasizing caution now with an eye on opportunities in the future. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3MQzC7Y. Watch Raoul’s special flash update here: https://rvtv.io/3LYrYHo. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

28 Mai 202241min

It was 126 years ago today, on May 26, 1896, that Charles Dow first published the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the Customer's Afternoon Letter. “He was a man after my own heart,” tweeted Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and Maggie Lake’s guest for today’s Daily Briefing. The Dow is celebrating its anniversary with a 600-point surge, following through on Wednesday’s post-FOMC-minutes-release rally. But Tony has his eyes on the disconnect between commodity prices and inflation expectations. “I think they will converge again soon,” he tweeted. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Economic Analysis updated its estimate of first-quarter GDP contraction from 1.4% to 1.5%. Tony and Maggie talk commodities and inflation, and we also hear from Cathie Wood about the macro environment and the long-term forecast for growth tech. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3LNIx8L. And keep an eye out for Cathie’s interview with Raoul – it drops tomorrow.... Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

27 Mai 202234min