Hurricane Hype? Season Awakens in the Atlantic

Hurricane Hype? Season Awakens in the Atlantic

As we head through August, it is typical for hurricane season to awaken in the Atlantic Ocean and the models are starting to hint at changes afoot. Elevated Tropical Activity: The Atlantic basin is entering a period of increased tropical activity, consistent with a "backloaded" hurricane season. Conditions are becoming more favorable for development, with warm ocean temperatures and a "La Niña light" influence.

  • Primary Threat: A large, ill-defined tropical disturbance has just moved off the coast of Africa and is the main system of concern. It has a high probability of developing into at least a tropical storm, and there's a "good chance we’ll see Hurricane Erin out of this."
  • Uncertain Track: The long-term track of the African disturbance is highly uncertain beyond next weekend. While many forecast models show it turning north offshore of the East Coast, some scenarios suggest a westward track potentially impacting the northeastern Caribbean or even the U.S. coast. It is too early to focus on any one location for impacts.
  • Beware of Social Media Hype: Long-range (10-15 day) model forecasts, particularly the GFS model which "loves to spin up a storm... and bring it straight for Florida or straight for the United States," are unreliable and should be disregarded. "Online posts showing an extreme storm impacting some part of the coast are only there to get clicks."
  • Other Systems:Tropical Storm Dexter: Has become a non-tropical system and is moving away from the U.S., posing no threat to land.
  • Invest 96L (Central Atlantic): Odds of development have been lowered to "low range" and it is expected to turn out to sea, posing no threat to land.
  • System offshore Carolinas: Absorbed by a cold front, posing no threat.
  • Preparedness: Now is the time for coastal residents to review hurricane preparations.

1. Current Atlantic Tropical Overview

The Atlantic hurricane season is showing signs of increased activity as anticipated, moving towards a "backloaded" season where more significant development is expected later in August and into September. Bryan Norcross of Fox Weather notes, "The Atlantic basin really across the board is becoming more favorable for development."

  • Colorado State University (CSU) and NOAA Outlooks: Both CSU and NOAA have released updated forecasts that indicate an above-normal season.
  • CSU predicts "16 named storms. Eight of them become hurricanes and three Category Three and above."
  • NOAA's similar forecast ranges from "13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 being Hurricanes of Category Three and above."
  • The reasoning for these forecasts remains consistent: warmer-than-normal Atlantic water temperatures ("a slight plus") and a "La Niña Light" condition ("more conducive for storm development") are balanced by "upper level winds over the Caribbean have been very hostile" ("a double minus"). This balance leads to a forecast "slightly above normal."

Episoder(208)

Florida Expecting Impact from Hurricane Milton with Dangerous Storm Surge and 110 mph Winds

Florida Expecting Impact from Hurricane Milton with Dangerous Storm Surge and 110 mph Winds

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Growing Insurance Failures Take Spotlight After Hurricane Helene

Growing Insurance Failures Take Spotlight After Hurricane Helene

Hurricane Helene is a major disaster that highlights the growing economic risks associated with climate change. While the financial impact of the hurricane is significant, with estimates reaching over $100 billion with long-term implications for communities, businesses, and individuals. Climate change will increasingly lead to "known unknowns" - events that we know will happen but cannot predict their exact timing or location. Adaptation, investing in preventative measures, and the need for governments and companies to take proactive steps to mitigate the financial and social consequences of these events is vital to move forward.Suggested questions

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Hurricane Helene’s Toxic Flood Waters

Hurricane Helene’s Toxic Flood Waters

There’s a hidden danger of toxic chemical releases from industrial facilities during hurricanes. Limited disclosure requirements and insufficient public information about these risks leave communities unprepared and unaware of the potential consequences. Red tide has been detected in Pinellas County waters following Hurricane Helene. This poses an additional health risk for residents already dealing with storm damage and cleanup, as red tide can cause respiratory problems and potentially harm marine life.

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Hurricane Helene - HAARP Engineered and Steered to Wipe Out a Town

Hurricane Helene - HAARP Engineered and Steered to Wipe Out a Town

Conspiracy theories circulate about Hurricane Helene, which struck Florida in September 2024 and wreaked havoc upon upstate North Carolina. Some theories claim the hurricane was intentionally manipulated to impact Republican areas, while others suggest it was engineered to clear land for lithium mining. We also examine theories claiming the hurricane was created or guided by technology, such as HAARP, frequency transmitters, or cloud seeding. While lithium is on the mind of conspiracy theorist, a real life quartz mining facility has been severely impacted by Helene, which could cause supply chain disruptions for weeks or months.

4 Okt 202410min

Hurricane Ian: Investigation Shows Homeowners Insurance Companies Not Paying Up After 2 Years

Hurricane Ian: Investigation Shows Homeowners Insurance Companies Not Paying Up After 2 Years

A 60 Minutes report on insurer fraud in Florida following Hurricane Ian shows that numerous companies have systematically changed reports in order to deny homeowners of up to 90% of the payment they deserve after catastrophic losses. It focuses on the claims of several licensed adjusters, who allege that insurance carriers were purposefully altering damage reports to reduce payouts to homeowners. These adjusters claim that their reports were edited by desk adjusters who had never even visited the damaged properties, reducing the amount of money the homeowners received. The report alleges that this practice was widespread, affecting many homeowners who were left with significant damage and insufficient funds to repair their homes… and are still awaiting justice even today. While these charges have been presented to the Florida Attorney General’s office, they have failed to prosecute 2 years after Ian struck Southwest Florida in 2022.

3 Okt 202411min

Asheville - Climate Change “Safe Haven”?

Asheville - Climate Change “Safe Haven”?

We explore the devastating floods that hit Asheville, North Carolina, after Hurricane Helene, challenging the city's former reputation as a "climate haven." It explains that climate change is making intense rainfall events more frequent and severe, leaving even high-elevation areas vulnerable. Climate change is exacerbating flooding risks across the United States, including in Appalachia, where the terrain amplifies the impact of heavy rains. We also compare the recent floods to the "Great Flood" of 1916, highlighting the catastrophic devastation caused by heavy rainfall and emphasizing the historical context of similar events in the region. Damage from Helene is extensive, causing significant problems with infrastructure and prompting relief efforts as the full extent of the impact still remains unknown.

3 Okt 202410min

What’s Your Flood Risk? Tools to Help you Determine

What’s Your Flood Risk? Tools to Help you Determine

How to determine flood risk for properties in the United States. Yale Climate brings us tools and resources, categorized by the type of information they provide, and it critiques the accuracy and limitations of each. These tools are essential in an era of increasing flood risk due to climate change. We discuss the new Risk Rating 2.0 system implemented by the National Flood Insurance Program, which aims to ensure future payouts do not exceed premiums.

3 Okt 202411min

Hurricane Helene - Bomb after the Lull

Hurricane Helene - Bomb after the Lull

The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season began as a beast with Hurricane Beryl setting the stage for what was predicted to be an overactive hurricane season. With an August and early September peak season lull, forecasters were questioning the reasoning for the season bottoming out. Then intro Hurricane Helene. Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida as a category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph and a storm surge of 20 feet causing not only one of the highest surges seen in the state of Florida, but also some of the highest storm surge ever recorded in the Tampa Bay Area. As a weakening storm system, Helene continued to dump excess amounts of rain through parts of Georgia and Appalachia, causing serious flash flooding that has caused the death toll to spike in recent days as rescuers scramble to sift through the destruction. Some people are wondering how a warming climate may have been a factor in supercharging Helene

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