Cannon Stats - The Analytics Podcast22 Jan 2024

Expecting Goals with Michael Caley

I am happy to bring you a special edition of the Cannon Stats podcast talking to a returning guestMichael Caley. He is here to talk about his new newsletter Expecting goals, which looks to take a break from the week-to-week view and dedicate time to studying a particular question that is underappreciated or is something that we “know” or “assume” to be true but don’t have a good data to say how much or to what degree or when these things from maybe nothing to something. We have a wide-ranging discussion but the later part talks about the first study that has been published looking at substitute effects. This is something I think is very interesting and something that on a player basis we discount but aren’t really sure how much (now we will have a better idea and I will absolutley be borrowing this). This also leads to further questions about what teams do in the face of these substitution effects and is that actually optimal. I have done a little bit of looking at this but like after everytime I talk with Mike, I always feel like there is so much more to try and uncover. Have a listen, consider subscribing, and let us know what you think. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.cannonstats.com/subscribe Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Episoder(76)

Reviewing the PL Over/Unders for 2025/26

Scott and Adam close the book on the Premier League season by grading every one of their preseason over/under predictions, then hand out a data-driven team of the season. The format is simple: 20 tea...

4 Jun 38min

The Wrong Side of the Knife Edge

Scott and Adam process Arsenal's penalty shootout defeat to PSG in the Champions League Final, a loss that stings without feeling like an indictment of the performance. The episode opens 24 hours on,...

31 Mai 51min

We Are the Champions (But We're Not Done Yet)

Scott and Adam soak in Arsenal's Premier League title and turn their attention to the Champions League Final against PSG. The episode opens with both hosts reflecting on the trophy lift and the emoti...

25 Mai 1h 8min

Questions, Questions, Questions

Scott and Adam process a deflating loss to Bournemouth and answer the questions that you provided. If you are a premium subscriber, you can listen to an ad-free version through Substack or you can ad...

12 Apr 1h 18min

Looking into the Crystal Ball, where do we go from here?

Scott and Adam are back to break down Arsenal's League Cup Final loss to Manchester City. They push back on the post-match doom, arguing Arsenal's low-tempo approach wasn't a failure; it was a deliber...

29 Mar 59min

Are there reasons to worry about Arsenal's finishing?

On this episode of the Cannon Stats podcast, Adam and Scott return after a Christmas break for a high-level discussion on Arsenal's recent form, dismissing finishing concerns, spotlighting key players...

29 Des 20251h 19min

Everything goes wrong for Arsenal at Villa Park

On this episode of the Cannon Stats podcast, Adam and Scott break down Arsenal’s kick in the balls loss against Aston Villa. It is a need catharsis and a nice way to get back to some analytical thinki...

8 Des 20251h 18min

Which team dropped points at the Bridge?

On this episode of the Cannon Stats podcast, Adam and Scott break down Arsenal’s draw against Chelsea, breaking down the big talking points, pre-red card Arsenal being outplayed? Post red card Arsenal...

1 Des 20251h