Geopolitical Cousins19 Jun 2025

To Bomb or Not To Bomb

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic respond to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. They unpack the potential for U.S. airstrikes, the unraveling MAGA coalition, and the fantasy of regime change in Iran. Marko draws parallels to the 1999 NATO campaign in Serbia, warning against simplistic assumptions about military power. Jacob proposes four scenarios for Iran’s future, while both discuss broader geopolitical implications, from China’s stance to weakening U.S. influence. They close by calling for a modern-day Congress of Vienna—perhaps hosted at Mar-a-Lago—to manage global conflict in a multipolar world.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:48) - Setting the Scene: Current Geopolitical Climate

(01:12) - Israel-Iran Tensions and MAGA Camp Dynamics

(04:59) - Debating Regime Change and Airstrikes

(11:04) - Historical Context: Lessons from Serbia

(16:10) - Potential Scenarios for Iran's Future

(27:11) - US Politics and Foreign Policy Implications

(35:21) - Comparing the Iran-Iraq War to Current Conflicts

(35:37) - The Dynamics of the Iran-Iraq War

(37:44) - Potential Global Repercussions

(39:58) - The Myth of the China Block

(41:13) - The Role of the US and Its Allies

(42:21) - The Impact on Global Markets

(45:02) - Technological Advancements in Warfare

(47:53) - The Need for a New Global Congress

(59:02) - Historical Precedents for Global Cooperation

(01:08:06) - The Decline of International Law

(01:08:16) - Charismatic Authority in Foreign Policy

(01:08:59) - Institutions vs. Concerts

(01:10:01) - The Role of the United Nations

(01:10:51) - The Concert of Europe Concept

(01:11:14) - Challenges of Charismatic Authority

(01:11:51) - Legitimacy and Spheres of Influence

(01:13:55) - Historical Context and Modern Implications

(01:16:17) - The Need for a New Global Order

(01:21:39) - Hypothetical Scenarios and Real-World Applications

(01:29:14) - Breaking News and Current Events

(01:37:56) - Concluding Thoughts and Future Speculations

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Marko Papic Twitter: x.com/geo_papic

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

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