164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

In this episode of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, Eric dives into the concept of expectancy—a key metric that blends win rate, average win size, and average loss size into one number that helps traders understand whether a strategy has a real edge over the long run.

We break down why a high win rate alone doesn’t guarantee profits (think 98% win rate ads…), and how expectancy provides better context by showing how much you can expect to make or lose per trade on average. Eric also shares updates inside Alpha Crunching: the Trade Ideas tab now includes expectancy alongside win rate, giving subscribers deeper insight when sorting potential setups for the week.

You’ll also hear about future enhancements—like adding average win and loss values—so traders can better gauge risk-reward and decide which setups fit their personal style.

👉 Try Alpha Crunching for yourself and get 50% off your first month here: https://alphacrunching.com

Episoder(177)

Credit Spreads Vs. Butterflies

Credit Spreads Vs. Butterflies

In this episode, we'll compare credit spreads vs butterflies from a recent real world trade I took where I to decide which trade was best for the situation. The decision to go with one over the other ...

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This Could Mark a Short Term Bottom

This Could Mark a Short Term Bottom

This episode is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. I'm taking cues from the US Dollar in looking for a short term bottom in the stock market. The strong USD...

28 Sep 20237min

Options Trading This Week: FOMC, Calendars, Covered Calls

Options Trading This Week: FOMC, Calendars, Covered Calls

Eric O'Rourke and Brian Terry discuss what they're looking at this week for their options trades. Got to https://www.stockmarketoptionstrading.net/ and join the free podcasts community to discuss the ...

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How To Trade AI Stocks With Leverage Without Options with Will Rhind From Granite Shares

How To Trade AI Stocks With Leverage Without Options with Will Rhind From Granite Shares

In this episode, I've got Will Rhind back on the show to discuss Granite Shares Single Stock ETF offerings in names like TSLA and NVDA which are some of the biggest AI plays right now. Ticker: TSLR is...

14 Sep 202326min

When Repainting Is Acceptable

When Repainting Is Acceptable

In this episode, we'll discuss repainting. When its bad and when its ok. Repainting is the concept that the visual representation of an indicator could change its past value based on current or new da...

10 Sep 202319min

SPX 0DTE Options Trading Framework

SPX 0DTE Options Trading Framework

In this episode, I walk through a framework I've been developing the past several months around trading weekly options on SPX with zero days to expiration, aka 0DTE. This episode is the first part of...

24 Aug 202317min

The Nuclear Option with David Janello

The Nuclear Option with David Janello

In this week's episode, I spoke with veteran trader and author David Janello to talk about his new book The Nuclear Option: Trading To Win With Options Momentum Strategies.Here's the link to the book ...

15 Aug 202326min

SPX 3DTE Iron Condor Options Strategy Research

SPX 3DTE Iron Condor Options Strategy Research

In this episode, we're going to continue our SPX iron condor discussion and research from last week's episode. Last week we talked about placing high probability 0DTE iron condor trades on days when t...

8 Aug 202312min

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