164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

In this episode of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, Eric dives into the concept of expectancy—a key metric that blends win rate, average win size, and average loss size into one number that helps traders understand whether a strategy has a real edge over the long run.

We break down why a high win rate alone doesn’t guarantee profits (think 98% win rate ads…), and how expectancy provides better context by showing how much you can expect to make or lose per trade on average. Eric also shares updates inside Alpha Crunching: the Trade Ideas tab now includes expectancy alongside win rate, giving subscribers deeper insight when sorting potential setups for the week.

You’ll also hear about future enhancements—like adding average win and loss values—so traders can better gauge risk-reward and decide which setups fit their personal style.

👉 Try Alpha Crunching for yourself and get 50% off your first month here: https://alphacrunching.com

Episoder(177)

SPX 0DTE Iron Condor Options Strategy

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Probability Stacking and Edges

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Charting the Price Time Continuum

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In this episode, we refer to the price chart as a price time continuum and compare to the space time continuum in that large objects passing through space can warp the the fabric of space time. In fin...

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This SPX 0DTE Strategy Has a 100% Win Rate The Past 3 Months

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3 Jul 202313min

Dividend Capture Strategy With Brian Terry CFP

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22 Jun 202329min

How to Deal With Closing a Trade Too Early

How to Deal With Closing a Trade Too Early

Have you ever been in a trade, decide to close for a valid reason, only then for the stock to take off in the direction you thought it would and you miss out on the profits? This can be so frustrating...

15 Jun 202315min

The Snow Fight Metaphor by Van Tharp

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In this episode, we'll go over Van Tharp's Snow Fight Metaphor from the book Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom. This is a continuation of episode 82 where we covered the 6 Keys to a Great Trading Sy...

6 Jun 202310min

6 Keys to a Great Trading System by Van Tharp

6 Keys to a Great Trading System by Van Tharp

Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom by Van K. Tharp is one of my favorite trading books where describes how to develop a trading system that works for you. In this episode, we'll cover the 6 Keys to a...

1 Jun 202320min

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