164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

In this episode of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, Eric dives into the concept of expectancy—a key metric that blends win rate, average win size, and average loss size into one number that helps traders understand whether a strategy has a real edge over the long run.

We break down why a high win rate alone doesn’t guarantee profits (think 98% win rate ads…), and how expectancy provides better context by showing how much you can expect to make or lose per trade on average. Eric also shares updates inside Alpha Crunching: the Trade Ideas tab now includes expectancy alongside win rate, giving subscribers deeper insight when sorting potential setups for the week.

You’ll also hear about future enhancements—like adding average win and loss values—so traders can better gauge risk-reward and decide which setups fit their personal style.

👉 Try Alpha Crunching for yourself and get 50% off your first month here: https://alphacrunching.com

Episoder(177)

Stock Market Startup: GraniteShares.com Single Stock ETFs with CEO Will Rhind

Stock Market Startup: GraniteShares.com Single Stock ETFs with CEO Will Rhind

In this episode, I spoke with Will Rhind from Granite Shares about the ETF industry and some of their unique offerings of single stock ETFS. GraniteShares is an entrepreneurial ETF provider focused on...

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Stock Market Startup: Kalshi.com Event Driven Trading with Tarek Mansour

Stock Market Startup: Kalshi.com Event Driven Trading with Tarek Mansour

We're back with another episode in the Stock Market Startup series with Tarek Mansour from Kalshi.com. Kalshi is a brokerage that allows you to trade against events. Events can be Fed rate hike decisi...

18 Mai 202320min

SPX Credit Spread Strategy for Sell in May and Go Away

SPX Credit Spread Strategy for Sell in May and Go Away

In this episode, we're going test selling SPX call credit spreads using the old trading adage "Sell in May and Go Away" as our trading premise. This isn't meant to give use a strategy to actually trad...

11 Mai 202317min

SPY Put Option Strategy for Sell in May and Go Away

SPY Put Option Strategy for Sell in May and Go Away

In this episode, we're going test buying put options SPY using the old trading adage "Sell in May and Go Away" as our trading premise. This isn't meant to give use a strategy to actually trade but is ...

9 Mai 202320min

Stock Market Startup: AlphaCrunching.com for SPX 0DTE Intraday Seasonality

Stock Market Startup: AlphaCrunching.com for SPX 0DTE Intraday Seasonality

In this week's episode, I'm back with another edition of Stock Market Startup where I interview founders and developers who creating stock market related applications. In case you didn't know, I'm the...

3 Mai 202321min

Trading SPX Credit Spreads in a Range Bound Market

Trading SPX Credit Spreads in a Range Bound Market

In episode 74 of the podcast, I talked about an SPX credit spread I was trading in this rangebound market. In this episode, I'll cover how that went and two other similar call credit spreads we traded...

25 Apr 202315min

Stock Market Startup: HedgingLab.com with Simon Lee

Stock Market Startup: HedgingLab.com with Simon Lee

In this week's episode, we're back with another edition of Stock Market Startup where I interview founders and developers who creating stock market related applications. In this episode, I got to spea...

18 Apr 202321min

SPX Trade Idea Ahead of CPI, FOMC, Earnings

SPX Trade Idea Ahead of CPI, FOMC, Earnings

Quick episode on a SPX options trade I'm taking ahead of tomorrow's inflation report and FOMC minutes. We also have earnings starting on Friday with some big banks. The trade idea discussed is not a r...

11 Apr 20236min

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