Ep68 “Is It Better to Overestimate or Underestimate Your Enemies?” with H.R. McMaster
All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions12 Nov 2025

Ep68 “Is It Better to Overestimate or Underestimate Your Enemies?” with H.R. McMaster

Historically, the U.S. has had a habit of overestimating the capabilities of its enemies. Why? Is this an intentional security strategy? Or does the U.S. need to change the way it gathers enemy intelligence?

Former National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster gives hosts and finance professors Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen a crash course on military intelligence and national security advising.

The conversation covers why the overestimation of enemies happens, including historical examples of misjudgments, the role of proxies in modern conflicts, strategic considerations involving major powers like China, and the threat of information warfare.

Find All Else Equal on the web:

https://lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/allelse/

All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions Podcast is a production of the UPenn Wharton Lauder Institute through University FM.


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