Australia's Economic Race: Capacity Constraints, Inflation Targets, and the Path Off the Rail | RBA Outlook

Australia's Economic Race: Capacity Constraints, Inflation Targets, and the Path Off the Rail | RBA Outlook

Delve into the Australian economic outlook with insights derived from the speech of Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). This episode explores the "unusual challenge" facing monetary policy, noting that the GDP recovery began with the highest level of capacity utilisation in over 40 years. We analyze the RBA's decision to maintain a restrictive policy stance until confidence is achieved that underlying inflation will settle sustainably at the 2–3 per cent target range.Learn about the three potential tracks the economy could take, framed by the Melbourne Cup metaphor:

1. Track A: Still ground to make up? (Policy easing may be necessary).

2. Track B: Boxed in on the rail? (Little scope for further policy easing due to capacity constraints).

3. Track C: Off to the races? (Escape through growing the economy’s supply capacity via productivity and investment).Understand why addressing weak growth in supply capacity and driving investment is crucial for Australia to avoid being "boxed in on the rail" and instead be "off to the races.

Episoder(61)

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Time Series Analysis Basics and Decomposition

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A Guide to Cost-Benefit Analysis

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Navigating Global Uncertainty: Economic Insights from the Westpac May 2025 Report

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14 Mai 202513min

Housing Finance on the Slide: Q1 2025 Lending Trends in Australia

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In this episode, we unpack the key insights from the Australian Dwelling Finance Bulletin for Q1 2025, which reveals the first major drop in dwelling finance approvals in two years. We explore the sha...

14 Mai 202511min

Tariffs, Turbulence, and Trends: April 2025 Economic Insights

Tariffs, Turbulence, and Trends: April 2025 Economic Insights

In this episode, we break down the April 2025 economic report from the New South Wales Treasury Corporation, focusing on the ripple effects of U.S. trade policies across global and Australian markets....

13 Mai 202514min

Forecasting Jobs: How Leading Indicators Predict Unemployment"

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In this episode, we explore new research on how leading labor market indicators—like job advertisements, vacancies, and consumer unemployment expectations—can improve forecasts of the unemployment rat...

13 Mai 202514min

Crypto vs. Central Bank Digital Currencies: Digital Money and the Future of Finance

Crypto vs. Central Bank Digital Currencies: Digital Money and the Future of Finance

In this episode, we unpack the key differences between cryptocurrencies and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). You'll learn how cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin operate on decentralized blockchains...

13 Mai 202518min

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