Australia's Economic Race: Capacity Constraints, Inflation Targets, and the Path Off the Rail | RBA Outlook

Australia's Economic Race: Capacity Constraints, Inflation Targets, and the Path Off the Rail | RBA Outlook

Delve into the Australian economic outlook with insights derived from the speech of Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). This episode explores the "unusual challenge" facing monetary policy, noting that the GDP recovery began with the highest level of capacity utilisation in over 40 years. We analyze the RBA's decision to maintain a restrictive policy stance until confidence is achieved that underlying inflation will settle sustainably at the 2–3 per cent target range.Learn about the three potential tracks the economy could take, framed by the Melbourne Cup metaphor:

1. Track A: Still ground to make up? (Policy easing may be necessary).

2. Track B: Boxed in on the rail? (Little scope for further policy easing due to capacity constraints).

3. Track C: Off to the races? (Escape through growing the economy’s supply capacity via productivity and investment).Understand why addressing weak growth in supply capacity and driving investment is crucial for Australia to avoid being "boxed in on the rail" and instead be "off to the races.

Episoder(61)

Chasing Full Employment: Understanding the NAIRU and Inflation Trade-offs

Chasing Full Employment: Understanding the NAIRU and Inflation Trade-offs

Can unemployment ever be too low? In this episode, we explore the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment—or NAIRU—a key economic concept used to gauge how low unemployment can go without trig...

9 Mai 202513min

Unpacking Unemployment: What the Numbers Really Mean

Unpacking Unemployment: What the Numbers Really Mean

Unemployment is more than just a headline figure—it’s a window into the health of the labour market and the economy. In this episode, we break down how the unemployment rate is measured in Australia b...

9 Mai 202515min

The Power of Productivity: Measuring What Drives Economic Growth

The Power of Productivity: Measuring What Drives Economic Growth

What exactly is productivity, and why does it matter so much in economics? In this episode, we demystify productivity by exploring its two key forms—labour productivity and multifactor productivity (M...

9 Mai 202519min

Riding the Waves: Understanding Business Cycles and Recessions

Riding the Waves: Understanding Business Cycles and Recessions

What causes economies to boom and bust? In this episode, we break down the business cycle—its phases, causes, and consequences—and explore what defines a recession versus a depression. We examine diff...

9 Mai 202515min

GDP and Beyond: Understanding Economic Growth in Australia

GDP and Beyond: Understanding Economic Growth in Australia

What drives a nation's economy forward? In this episode, we take a deep dive into the concept of economic growth, focusing on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the key measure of progress. You'll learn ...

7 Mai 202524min

Behind the Numbers: How Australia Measures Inflation

Behind the Numbers: How Australia Measures Inflation

What exactly is inflation, and how do we measure it? In this episode, we dive into the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—Australia’s main tool for tracking inflation. We explain how the Australian Bureau of ...

7 Mai 202514min

Why Australia Targets 2–3% Inflation?

Why Australia Targets 2–3% Inflation?

What’s behind Australia’s 2–3% inflation target—and why does it matter? In this episode, we break down the Reserve Bank of Australia's inflation target, how it's measured using the Consumer Price Inde...

7 Mai 202513min

Explaining the Causes of Inflation

Explaining the Causes of Inflation

In this episode, we unpack the key causes of inflation and explore how rising prices can stem from different sources. We delve into the three main types of inflation: demand-pull, cost-push, and infla...

7 Mai 202518min

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