Treasury Modelling Secrets: Macro Forecasts, Tax Policy & CGE/OLG Models

Treasury Modelling Secrets: Macro Forecasts, Tax Policy & CGE/OLG Models

Discover the complex economic models shaping fiscal advice at The Treasury. This review explores the critical recommendation to move away from the current 3-phase forecasting approach and embed a new, high-priority macro-econometric model for projections that must span greatly varying time horizons, from two up to 41 years. We analyze the crucial roadmap for the Revenue Group, focusing on upgrading its capability to use the detailed CGETAX model for analyzing tax policy impacts (covering up to twelve categories of tax). Learn why linking this CGE analysis with microsimulation models like CAPITA and PRISMOD.DIST is recommended for consistency in assessing both economic efficiency and household equity impacts. Finally, find out why Overlapping Generations (OLG) models are a medium priority for the Fiscal Group, as they are crucial tools for scenario analysis concerning intergenerational issues like retirement incomes and public debt policies.

Episoder(61)

CBA vs. CEA: The Economic Evaluation Tools Shaping Government Decisions

CBA vs. CEA: The Economic Evaluation Tools Shaping Government Decisions

Learn the different economic evaluation methods used to ensure efficient resource allocation. We explore when to use Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)—which converts all benefits into dollar values—and Cost...

15 Nov 202512min

The Subjective Assumptions Shaping CGE Models and Australian Economic Policy

The Subjective Assumptions Shaping CGE Models and Australian Economic Policy

Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling is a central element of economic and policy debate in Australia, used for decisions ranging from tax reform to the approval of major projects. This repor...

15 Nov 202533min

DSGE Models: Crisis, Financial Frictions, and the Future of Macro Policy

DSGE Models: Crisis, Financial Frictions, and the Future of Macro Policy

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models are the leading, transparent tool for macroeconomic policy assessment. Discover why these models failed to predict the 2008 financial crisis, and h...

13 Nov 202514min

Australia's Economic Race: Capacity Constraints, Inflation Targets, and the Path Off the Rail | RBA Outlook

Australia's Economic Race: Capacity Constraints, Inflation Targets, and the Path Off the Rail | RBA Outlook

Delve into the Australian economic outlook with insights derived from the speech of Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). This episode explores the "unusual challenge"...

12 Nov 202516min

RBA Rate Hold (3.60%): Australia's Persistent Inflation and Capacity Pressures | Nov 2025 SMP

RBA Rate Hold (3.60%): Australia's Persistent Inflation and Capacity Pressures | Nov 2025 SMP

In this episode of Inside's Economist's Mind, we break down the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision in November 2025 to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 3.60 per cent.Drawing on the late...

12 Nov 202514min

Critical Minerals War: US & Australia Challenge China's 'Iron Grip' on Rare Earths Supply Chains

Critical Minerals War: US & Australia Challenge China's 'Iron Grip' on Rare Earths Supply Chains

In this episode of "Inside the economist's mind," we dissect the historic United States–Australia Critical Minerals Framework, a strategic partnership signed by Anthony Albanese and Donald Trump desig...

6 Nov 202515min

The Barossa Billions: Methane Cover-Up, Zero Royalties, and Australia's Looming Gas Export Crisis

The Barossa Billions: Methane Cover-Up, Zero Royalties, and Australia's Looming Gas Export Crisis

This episode dives into the massive, yet highly controversial, Barossa offshore gas project, operated by Santos. Approved amidst an election campaign focused on gas exports, Barossa is one of the most...

6 Nov 202516min

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