Treasury Modelling Secrets: Macro Forecasts, Tax Policy & CGE/OLG Models

Treasury Modelling Secrets: Macro Forecasts, Tax Policy & CGE/OLG Models

Discover the complex economic models shaping fiscal advice at The Treasury. This review explores the critical recommendation to move away from the current 3-phase forecasting approach and embed a new, high-priority macro-econometric model for projections that must span greatly varying time horizons, from two up to 41 years. We analyze the crucial roadmap for the Revenue Group, focusing on upgrading its capability to use the detailed CGETAX model for analyzing tax policy impacts (covering up to twelve categories of tax). Learn why linking this CGE analysis with microsimulation models like CAPITA and PRISMOD.DIST is recommended for consistency in assessing both economic efficiency and household equity impacts. Finally, find out why Overlapping Generations (OLG) models are a medium priority for the Fiscal Group, as they are crucial tools for scenario analysis concerning intergenerational issues like retirement incomes and public debt policies.

Episoder(61)

 Australia's Green Hydrogen Collapse: Why High Costs and Uncertain Demand Grounded Major Projects

Australia's Green Hydrogen Collapse: Why High Costs and Uncertain Demand Grounded Major Projects

Australia's green hydrogen transition faces severe setbacks due to high production costs, currently AUD 5−6 per kilogram, which developers cite as making the technology unviable. This cost hurdle, com...

25 Okt 202514min

The $60 Billion Gold Surge: Why LNG is Ceding Its Place as Australia’s Second Largest Export?

The $60 Billion Gold Surge: Why LNG is Ceding Its Place as Australia’s Second Largest Export?

Welcome to Inside the Economist's Mind. In this episode, we deep dive into the Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ) September 2025 report. We analyze the dramatic shifts reshaping Australia's export l...

11 Okt 202515min

Understanding Australian Petrol Prices: Costs, Taxes & Competition Explained

Understanding Australian Petrol Prices: Costs, Taxes & Competition Explained

Discover how Australian petrol pump prices are determined by key factors, including international product costs (like the Singapore MOPS95 benchmark), government taxes (excise and GST), and industry o...

21 Aug 202514min

The World Ahead 2025

The World Ahead 2025

"The World Ahead" is an **annual predictive publication** from The Economist, released every November. It serves as a **forward-looking guide**, offering in-depth analysis, forecasts, and informed spe...

24 Jul 202518min

ATO Behavioral Questions & STAR Responses- Career Conversations

ATO Behavioral Questions & STAR Responses- Career Conversations

Welcome to Inside’s Economists Mind—a podcast where economic thinking meets real-world impact.You’re listening to our Career Conversations series, where we explore the journeys, challenges, and strate...

12 Jun 202537min

Australia's Q1 2025 GDP Preview: Private Sector Strength

Australia's Q1 2025 GDP Preview: Private Sector Strength

In this episode, we dive into NAB Economics' preview of Australia's Q1 2025 GDP, which forecasts a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter rise. The growth is expected to be led by private sector momentum, particular...

3 Jun 202543min

Australia's Population Slowdown and Economic Impacts

Australia's Population Slowdown and Economic Impacts

Key points:Population growth peaked just above 2.5%yr in Q3 2023 due to a surge following the reopening of international borders, driven by the return of students and arrival of approved permanent res...

2 Jun 202513min

Australia & New Zealand Weekly Economic Insight

Australia & New Zealand Weekly Economic Insight

Australia's population growth surge following the reopening of international borders is now unwinding faster than previously indicated, reaching an annual rate of 1.8% in Q3 2024 and is now assumed to...

2 Jun 202512min

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