Treasury Modelling Secrets: Macro Forecasts, Tax Policy & CGE/OLG Models

Treasury Modelling Secrets: Macro Forecasts, Tax Policy & CGE/OLG Models

Discover the complex economic models shaping fiscal advice at The Treasury. This review explores the critical recommendation to move away from the current 3-phase forecasting approach and embed a new, high-priority macro-econometric model for projections that must span greatly varying time horizons, from two up to 41 years. We analyze the crucial roadmap for the Revenue Group, focusing on upgrading its capability to use the detailed CGETAX model for analyzing tax policy impacts (covering up to twelve categories of tax). Learn why linking this CGE analysis with microsimulation models like CAPITA and PRISMOD.DIST is recommended for consistency in assessing both economic efficiency and household equity impacts. Finally, find out why Overlapping Generations (OLG) models are a medium priority for the Fiscal Group, as they are crucial tools for scenario analysis concerning intergenerational issues like retirement incomes and public debt policies.

Episoder(61)

Building Momentum: Australia’s Q1 Construction Surges in Housing and Renewables

Building Momentum: Australia’s Q1 Construction Surges in Housing and Renewables

In this episode, we unpack Westpac IQ’s latest report on Australia’s construction sector for Q1 2025. With overall activity holding steady and a 3.5% year-over-year growth, residential construction is...

28 Mai 202511min

Tariff Tensions: Trump's EU Threat and the Trade War Tightrope

Tariff Tensions: Trump's EU Threat and the Trade War Tightrope

In this episode, we dive into the rising tensions between the US and the European Union as former President Trump threatens a sweeping 50% tariff on EU goods. Drawing from ING Think’s latest economic ...

26 Mai 202513min

RBA Cuts & RBNZ Waits: Inflation, Budgets & Global Moves

RBA Cuts & RBNZ Waits: Inflation, Budgets & Global Moves

This week on *Westpac’s Australia & New Zealand Weekly*, we unpack the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest rate cut and what it signals about inflation and domestic demand. We also analyze New Zealand’...

26 Mai 202517min

Deindustrialization: Causes and Consequences

Deindustrialization: Causes and Consequences

In this episode, we unpack Paul Krugman’s take on deindustrialization in America. Challenging the popular blame placed on globalization and trade deficits, Krugman argues that the decline in manufactu...

24 Mai 20258min

Rates, Wages & the Gender Gap: Australia’s Economic Pulse

Rates, Wages & the Gender Gap: Australia’s Economic Pulse

This episode features highlights from *Dollars and Cents* by The Australia Institute, diving into recent economic developments in Australia. We explore the Reserve Bank's latest interest rate cut, dif...

23 Mai 202515min

Australian Wage Price Index Methodology

Australian Wage Price Index Methodology

In this episode, we take a closer look at the methodology behind the Australian Wage Price Index (WPI). Based on official guidance from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, we break down how wage data...

23 Mai 202520min

Cash Rate Down: How Global Tariffs Are Shaping Australia's Economy

Cash Rate Down: How Global Tariffs Are Shaping Australia's Economy

In this episode, we unpack the Reserve Bank of Australia's May 2025 monetary policy statement. With domestic activity tracking as expected and inflation gradually easing, the RBA has now turned its at...

22 Mai 202514min

Why Attention to Detail Matters in Economics? Career Conversations Series

Why Attention to Detail Matters in Economics? Career Conversations Series

In this episode, we spotlight the critical role of attention to detail in the world of economics. Through real-world examples and STAR method scenarios, we illustrate how meticulous data analysis, car...

21 Mai 20256min

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