Top Traders Unplugged

Nick Baltas is back this week to talk about the use of non-trend strategies in diversified managed futures portfolios. What is the rationale for the existence of a carry risk premia? How durable are the returns? What are some of the key thing things to keep in mind implementing a carry strategy? These are some of the questions we discuss as we deep dive into the use of carry alongside trend following. We also discuss reversion strategies and how skewness plays a part in their construction. And we discuss how all of these strategies may relate to the fact that the investment world may now be in the midst of what Howard Marks calls a Sea Change, driven by higher bond yields.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:48 - What has caught our attention in markets?04:08 - Construction portfolios with non-trend complimentary strategies09:59 - What is driving non-trend strategies like carry?17:28 - Adding carry to trend22:52 - How to use utility functions25:08 - Defining the variables28:09 - Advice for implementing a carry strategy36:22 - Nick's perspective on reversion strategies40:21 - Moving beyond single stocks47:48 - Skewness in commodities54:30 - How climate change impacts investment strategiesCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

14 Okt 20231h 3min

Troy Gayeski, Chief Market Strategist for FS Investments, joins us today to discuss asset allocation and investment opportunities in today’s higher yield environment. We discuss how higher interests rates are impacting the risk and reward across capital markets and why higher interest rates mean equity valuations may be stretched at the current juncture. We discuss how asset allocation has evolved from the 60-40 benchmark to a 40-30-30 allocation for many institutional investors with a 30% allocation to alternatives. We delve into where Troy sees opportunities within alternatives particularly in real estate, private equity, secondaries and liquid alternatives given his view that we are late in the economic cycle. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Troy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:44 - Introduction to Troy Gayeski11:36 - A top-down macro perspective19:43 - The state of the 60/40 portfolio26:37 - How do investors react to the interest rate?30:47 - Analyzing the alt space35:50 - Advice for allocating to real estate40:00 - An overweight of privates?44:02 - A mockdown in valuations - an unfolding process or mostly done?46:30 - Opportunities and positioning in the liquid space52:42 - Building a diversified liquid alts portfolio55:09 - Is old...

11 Okt 20231h 4min

Andrew Beer joins us to discuss a recent research report from Morningstar (called Market Wizards Wave Their Wands but Investors Miss the Magic) which highlights the challenges investors have in timing managed futures allocations. We get Andrew’s perspective on the evolution of the managed futures industry, particularly the evolving ETF and UCITS markets and discuss whether the CTA industry is on the road to commoditisation. We wrap up discussing a recent FT article which suggests more attractive hedge fund manager may underperform…but may be more successful in raising assets.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Andrew Beer on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:04 - What's been on our radar recently?06:02 - A growing appetite for trend following?10:45 - Who is to blame?15:03 - Commoditization in managed futures20:16 - Is commoditization the "right" word?21:38 - The best way to express an equity value strategy25:05 - How the SG Trend Index has evolved over time30:10 - The evolution of the trend following industry37:01 - A case of market segmentation?40:00 - Are ETFs the future?46:27 - Managed futures and trend following in Europe52:24 - A discussion on fees54:54 - Capacity - a reason for concern?58:59 - The...

7 Okt 20231h 1min

Goldman Sachs Head of Asset Allocation Research, Christian Mueller-Glissmann shares his current investment framework with Cem Karsan and I today. It's an important conversation as it touches on so many of the most important questions that investors, individual as well as institutional, are faced with right now. How we as investors should allocate our capital taking into account the ever changing Global Macro regimes was fascinating to explore, with one of the sharpest thinkers on this topic. Like Cem and I, you will be impressed with the depth of research and knowledge that Christian shared in our conversation. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Christian on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:33 - Introduction to Christian Mueller-Glissmann04:05 - The global macro perspective08:13 - The changing relationship between stocks and bonds12:25 - Structural and cyclical issues21:35 - Is this inflation different?28:15 - The lag of structural effects32:04 - The age of abundance36:45 - Time to shift back to active management43:10 - The introduction of derivatives and how it affects the economy52:21 - A move away from bonds and how it will affect us01:00:06 - Does the interest cycle exist?01:00:52 - The Dynamic Balanced...

4 Okt 20231h 4min

Q3 is behind us, and we take stock of how is the trend following industry holding up? Is passthrough fees becoming a problem for investors in the multi-strategy space? Do we still have a bubble economy? Have we lost our imagination of what can happen in the economy? And why is it important to understand psychology when building models? Join us for this fascinating conversation with Mark Rzepczynski where we discuss this, and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:09 - What's on Mark's radar righ now?07:25 - Multi-strategies and passthrough fees19:13 - Industry performance update22:28 - How is the industry holding up?25:47 - Big moves in the commodity space28:55 - Performance numbers30:02 - The more things change, the more they stay the same41:04 - Imagine the unimaginable46:42 - How psychology impacts markets53:45 - When and when not to be a trend follower59:49 - A chronological snobbery?01:04:03 - Important announcementCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following...

30 Sep 20231h 6min

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Helen Thompson of Cambridge University, author of Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century, as we take a big picture perspective on the current global macro landscape. A key focus of Helen’s work is the role of energy markets in understanding global macro developments and we delve into Europe’s energy dependence on Russia. We hear about the factors which enabled Europe avoid an energy shortage in the winter of 2022 but why energy markets remain a risk factor for the Eurozone economy. We discuss the shift towards more proactive industrial policy in the US, what is driving it and how it relates to deglobalization. We also discuss China, its economic challenges and its evolving role in the Middle East and whether the global economy is truly fragmenting into distinct trading blocs. We get Helen’s perspective on the US dollar’s reserve status and why the US’s role in the international monetary order is as strong as ever and get her thoughts on the next year’s US presidential election. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Helen on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:36 - Introduction to Helen Thompson 06:31 - Why did she write her book, "Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century"?10:15 - The outlook for Europe's oil and gas dependency 17:23 - A longer-term structural challenge?...

27 Sep 20231h 2min

Tune in for this week’s trend following conversation with Alan Dunne, where we discuss Barry Eichengreen’s paper on living with high public debt and how the high level of debt can be addressed, the relationship between interest rates and GDP, how Forex trading have evolved over time and why it is having a renaissance at the moment. We also discuss return expectations in markets and diversified strategies and Alan reports what he experienced from a recent investor event in Paris.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:57 - What has been on Alan's radar recently?04:55 - Industry performance update08:16 - Living with high public debt20:27 - Other investors' view on the high level of debt24:10 - How the trading of FX markets have evolved32:58 - Do you need specialists to trade markets?37:45 - China imposing trading restrictions?40:36 - Where returns may go from here?48:49 - High interest rates not beneficial for high leverage strategies?51:05 - Inside knowledge from Paris Investor event59:11 - Alan to host upcoming Systematic Investor episodes01:00:29 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my...

23 Sep 20231h 2min

In this episode we lift the veil on China’s often secretive system for managing its multi-trillion dollar holdings of foreign assets. Guiding us through the discussion is Dr. Zhongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Dr. Liu spent years researching financial reports and conducting in-person interviews with those involved in running China’s multiple “Sovereign Leveraged Funds”. We discuss how they evolved, what purposes they serve for the Communist party and why other countries may soon follow China’s lead. The interview is based on Dr. Liu’s new book: How The Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Zongyuan on Twitter and Read her Book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:52 - Sebastien’s journey into the investment management industry07:45 - How Sebastien’s book came about19:43 - Investing in a rising interest rate environment24:06 - Responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets33:24...

20 Sep 202359min