The Lopsided Expansion | Aahan Menon on Why Long-Term Forecasts Don’t Make Money, And The Growing Divergence Between AI CapEx And Labor Market

The Lopsided Expansion | Aahan Menon on Why Long-Term Forecasts Don’t Make Money, And The Growing Divergence Between AI CapEx And Labor Market

Monetary Matters listeners can get 20% of Prometheus Macro Substack here: https://www.prometheus-macro.com/subscribe?coupon=a60c1c9f Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Macro and a trusted "quant's quant" for sophisticated hedge funds, joins Jack Farley to explain why his models are signaling a meaningful shift down in risk. While previously striking a bullish tone, Aahan reveals why his institutional strategies have moved from "max bullish" to neutral on equities and commodities. Aahan breaks down a concerning divergence in the economy: while GDP and spending are being propped up by a surge in AI CapEx and top-heavy consumption, the underlying labor market is weakening. He explains the "circularity" problem of AI investment—eventually, CapEx must turn into consumption, which requires wage growth that is currently stalling. Later in the conversation, Aahan challenges core macro beliefs, presenting data on why long-term economic forecasting and tracking "rates of change" generate negligible or negative alpha. He also details his current positioning, including being short homebuilders, long French bonds against Japanese JGBs, and his "Crisis Protection" portfolio. Recorded on November 25, 2025. Follow Aahan Menon on Twitter https://x.com/AahanPrometheus Follow Prometheus Macro on Twitter https://x.com/prometheusmacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Avsnitt(248)

Why $200 Oil Won’t Spike Inflation to 9% | Anna Wong on Recession Probability, PCE vs CPI, and Fed Reaction Function In A Scenario of Soaring Energy Prices

Why $200 Oil Won’t Spike Inflation to 9% | Anna Wong on Recession Probability, PCE vs CPI, and Fed Reaction Function In A Scenario of Soaring Energy Prices

This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs. Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS):   https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&ut...

1 Apr 52min

The Psychology of Market Champions: Inside the Minds of Point 72 & Citadel Portfolio Managers | Dr. Gio Valiante

The Psychology of Market Champions: Inside the Minds of Point 72 & Citadel Portfolio Managers | Dr. Gio Valiante

This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs. Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS):   https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&ut...

31 Mars 1h 1min

The 2026 Private Credit Liquidity Crunch | Leyla Kunimoto on Redemptions in Semi-liquid Vehicles, Private/Public BDCs, and the Future of Alternatives

The 2026 Private Credit Liquidity Crunch | Leyla Kunimoto on Redemptions in Semi-liquid Vehicles, Private/Public BDCs, and the Future of Alternatives

This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs. Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS):   https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&ut...

29 Mars 1h 24min

How the Iran War Reshapes the Sovereign Debt Landscape | Sovereign Debt Expert Lupin Rahman

How the Iran War Reshapes the Sovereign Debt Landscape | Sovereign Debt Expert Lupin Rahman

Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/hfgm   Former Head of Sovereign Credit at PIMCO Lupin Rahman joins Jack to discuss sovereign debt and its peculiarit...

27 Mars 1h 2min

Headline Indices Are Masking Market Stress | Liz Ann Sonders on the Case For Quality Stocks During An Oil Shock

Headline Indices Are Masking Market Stress | Liz Ann Sonders on the Case For Quality Stocks During An Oil Shock

This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs. Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS):   https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&utm_...

25 Mars 1h 8min

“Not Until May” The Real Timeline for Controlling the Strait of Hormuz | Nadia Martin Wiggen Svelland Capital

“Not Until May” The Real Timeline for Controlling the Strait of Hormuz | Nadia Martin Wiggen Svelland Capital

Learn more about Teucrium’s CORN ETF (CORN) here: https://teucrium.com/corn Nadia Martin Wiggen, Director at Svelland Capital joins Other People’s Money for a timely update on energy and shipping m...

23 Mars 47min

A Fertilizer Crisis is Brewing (Quickly) | StoneX’s Josh Linville on How Iran War & Strait of Hormuz Closure Has Shut of Critical Fertilizer Chemical Feedstocks That Threaten Global Grain Supply

A Fertilizer Crisis is Brewing (Quickly) | StoneX’s Josh Linville on How Iran War & Strait of Hormuz Closure Has Shut of Critical Fertilizer Chemical Feedstocks That Threaten Global Grain Supply

Sponsor: Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE Arca: CORN): https://teucrium.com/corn In this episode of Monetary Matters, StoneX Vice President Josh Linville explains how the Iran War and the closure of the S...

22 Mars 53min

“This Is The End of The Oil Market As We Know It” | Rory Johnston on How $300 Oil Could Trigger Depression If De-Escalation Does Not Occur In Iran War

“This Is The End of The Oil Market As We Know It” | Rory Johnston on How $300 Oil Could Trigger Depression If De-Escalation Does Not Occur In Iran War

20% discount to annual subscription to Rory Johnston’s Commodity Context: https://www.commoditycontext.com/monetarymatters In this urgent episode of Monetary Matters Today, Jack sits down with Rory...

19 Mars 1h 21min

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